Tuesday, March 13, 2007


Ken Pomeroy's rolling out his preview today. He uses an algorithm called log5 to express each team's Tourney chances as a percentage. It's fascinating stuff that I highly recommend. The great thing about Pomeroy is he knows both hoops and math, and acknowledges that stat IQ doesn't necessarily trump basketball IQ. Of course, he's got loads of both.

In the Midwest, he likes Wisconsin a lot more than I do, though he acknowledges that the injury to Brian Butch is a big question mark. According to Pomeroy, this is the most wide-open bracket, with six teams having at least a 5% chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio (Florida, Wisky, Maryland, Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia Tech).

He notes that Oregon has struggled on defense in the second half of the season, and isn't sure whether their fine D in the Pac-10 tournament is indicative of a trend. I'm not sure either, but I do know that Oregon is moving on offense as well as any team I've seen this year. Their blowout of SC wasn't just about a hot shooting afternoon - their ball movement led to loads of uncontested shots against a very good defensive team.

The West is interesting - he sees Kansas as the clear favorite based on a relatively easy bracket draw. Only UCLA, Duke and Pitt have a greater than 5% chance of emerging from the West according to his numbers.

He'll presumably have a look at the South and East regionals later today. As for this site, I'll have more on the Tournament later today.


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