Tightwad Hill

A QUICK PICK - WASHINGTON AT CALIFORNIA

Will you hate us if we say that tomorrow is a winnable game for Cal? OK, we won't, then.

The Huskies are turnover-prone no matter who is running the point (Appleby, Dentmon, etc). They go into bizarre stretches where they seem to lose the ability to run an offensive set, let alone score. Defensively, they're very ordinary on the perimeter and seemingly get very little out of an intimidating inside presence (middle of the road in block %).

And yet, they are a hugely talented bunch with the best front-line in the conference. They are monsters on the offensive glass, ranking 2nd in the nation in Offensive Rebound % (the frequency with which they grab an available offensive board). Despite turning the ball over far too much, the Huskies get second chances and convert them for a high overall FG % (52.2% from two; 39.1% from three).

Keys to the Game:

• Play Ubaka at the two. It's time to take the shackles off one of the two guys who can score 20 points a game for the Bears. Give Randle an extra two-three minutes a half (at least) and let Ayinde (right) create for himself.
• Pressure the Husky guards. Cal isn't deep enough to pick up full court against UW, but maybe we could try some half-court traps or pressure in the front court. We'd like to see Cal dare the UW guards to beat them off the dribble, and hopefully generate a few turnovers.
• Limit second shots. Cal's going to get out-rebounded, but there's a big difference between a bad performance and a ridiculous one. With a merely bad performance, Cal can stay close and maybe get the W.

Prediction: Nothing about this game suggests a Cal victory. The Huskies desperately need a win at 1-4 in conference, and Cal has no answer inside for Hawes and Brockman. Our instincts tell us this is all pointing to a Cal upset, but we're not in a listening mood.

posted by Tightwad @ 2:48 PM