Tightwad Hill

FAREWELL....FOR NOW

2007-05-11T07:17:00.000-07:00

As I'm sure you all could tell, I've had to shut down TH for the foreseeable future. In fairness to our readers, the deal is that I have had to deal with a family issue that requires my regular attention. That, plus the rest of real life, leaves very little time for blogging. And, frankly, my heart's not in it - or, more precisely, it needs to be somewhere else.

My apologies to all of you who have come to depend on TH for Cal news and opinion. My hope and expectation is to have something back up by the summer (July-ish), but right now it's a bit out of my hands and hard to forecast. From now until then, or whenever - good luck to all TH readers, and GO BEARS!!!

MIA

2007-03-28T07:19:00.000-07:00

Apologies for the lack of posts this week - real life occasionally gets in the way of obsessive sports blogging. I'll have something up on the Final Four before the weekend, as well as a look at Cal's defensive line in '07. Take care and Go Bears!!!

THIRD DOWN (PART TWO)

2007-03-22T14:43:00.000-07:00

Among many interesting things about Brian's 3rd down charts at MGoBlog is the following: teams employing the zone read option do pretty well in 3rd and short situations. Well, that's not quite precise. Teams with mobile quarterbacks that run the zone read option clean up in 3rd and short. Take a look at Florida, a team that lacked a really solid running back:

Lots of Tim Tebow in that graph. Note that Florida became a very average team in 3rd and more than 7 situations.

Another spread team is West Virginia, who had the marquee back but, just as important, employed an athletic run/pass threat behind center:

Don't know what happened on 3rd and 1 - maybe the Mountaineers shift into a more conventional formation there. The rest of the graph is eye candy.

Even Oregon, a pretty mediocre team in '06, looked all right on the penultimate down:

Interestingly, Oregon's defense was pretty good on 3rd down as well - it was the other two downs they struggled with, apparently.

Speaking of defense, let's have a look at a very interesting graph: Cal in 2006.

As loyal reader Pete Morris points out, there's a lot of Brandon Mebane in that green area on the far left. Cal's opponents were successful only about 40% of the time on 3rd and three or fewer yards to go. It's not just Mebane, though. 3rd and 3 is a passing down in the Pac 10, and Cal was about 15% better than the national average in stopping opponents' attempts. That reflects good pass drops and cover skills by linebackers, and excellent tackling on quick outs.

Third and long (more than ten to go) is another story. There's two things at play here, I think. First, no pass rush - these patterns call for five and seven step drops and Cal rarely brought consistent heat on opposing QBs. The second factor is less troubling - Cal often surrendered third and longs when holding a big lead and sitting in a soft zone. This was even true in games like UCLA that were tight in the first half. Gregory's philosophy post-Tennessee was quite clear - the Bears would give up completions as long as no one got behind the secondary.

So what should we expect in 2007? It's impossible to say, but I think there are three people who will determine whether Cal can produce green graphs next season:

Kevin Bemoll. We need a guard who will be a road-grader in the short yardage game. Bemoll could be that guy.

Zach Follett. As much as I love Desmond Bishop, Follett will be a north-south Mike who stuffs fullbacks and creates chaos at the point of attack. Cal will need even more consistent Mike play to compensate for the loss of Mebane up front.

Jeff Tedford. Longshore was 19-33 in 3rd and 5 or less to go in 2006. The Bears converted each of those 19 completions for first downs (plus one PI call), so their success by air was much greater than their success on the ground. When you shorten the distance to 3rd and 3 or less, Longshore went 10-16 with two touchdowns and no picks. While everyone loves the power run game, JT may be tempted to put the ball in Longshore's hands more often on third down next season.

THIRD DOWN

2007-03-20T08:50:00.000-07:00

A couple of months ago we took a look at Cal's play-calling in 2nd down and short situations. As expected, the data supported the notion that the Bears were pretty conservative and not very successful in these situations, leading to a fair number of 3rd and shorts over the course of the season. So, how did the Bears perform in those all-important third down situations?

As mentioned earlier, Brian from MGoBlog has a nifty chart that captures Cal's third down performance (and charts for every other D-1A program). Here's Cal's 3rd down efficiency in 2006:

The Y axis measures the completion %; the X axis measures the # of yards to go. The descending heavy black line is the average completion % for D-1A teams - if your team is above average at a given distance, you'll see green; below average and you'll appropriately see red.

As you can see, Cal was slightly below average in 3rd and less than five yards to go. Conversely, the Bears were far above average in 3rd and more than 7 yards to go (and slightly above average in 3rd and 5 and 3rd and 6 situations).

How often did Cal face such situations?

The most frequent down and distance was 3rd and ten (14% of all third downs). As the above graph indicates, Cal did pretty well in these situations, but their completion percentage was still below 40%. Also a fair number of 3rd and threes, and we know that Cal was relatively inefficient in such situations.

For those of us who watched Cal's 2006 season, these graphs are not very surprising. The Golden Bears were an efficient offense who occasionally struggled in short-yardage situations. While many fans justifiably blame Ted/Bar for unimaginative play calling on second and short, the third and short frustrations are due to inconsistent OL play. Just for fun I went back and looked at some TIVO of the '06 season, and what I saw confirmed my view. While Marshawn occasionally danced when he should have darted, the vast majority of unsuccessful third and shorts were due to our OL's inability to generate a push up front. I won't name names, but there are certain returners on the OL who simply struggled when they were forced to go mano a mano with down linemen without any help from linemates. Failing improvement in this area, the Bears may ask Nate to throw slants and tight end pops to convert on third down in 2007.

Now let's look at a graph of a team that gets it done in short yardage:

That's USC's graph for 2006, and that's a big reason they won the Pac-10 despite an offense that lacked the big-play firepower of years past. More on this later in the week.

CLEANING OUT THE DESK

2007-03-19T10:20:00.000-07:00

The Pac-10 has three teams in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2002. Good for the conference, and good for Cal. Conference success = more pressure on Sandy to take this program to the next level. On a related note, I want to hire Tim Floyd.

Of the three conference rivals, UCLA's got the clearest path to the Final Four. They looked like hell on offense against Indiana, but Pitt doesn't have the back court to compete with Collison and Afflalo. When Afflalo attacks the basket, UCLA is the best team in the country. When he's passive or not in rhythm, they can lose to Cal. I'm guessing that Howland reminds him of this fact between now and Thursday.

Oregon's interesting - UNLV is a fine team who plays good defense, but I think Oregon plays at a different athletic level than the Rebs. Florida looms in the Elite 8. If you believe Ernie Kent (which is a hard thing to do) the Ducks have used five different base defenses in the last seven games. Against the Gators they would need to revisit the one they used against Arizona in the Pac-10 tournament. In that 69-50 win, the Ducks collapsed on Radenovic and Hill and denied the easy entry pass. Noah and Horford would be a tougher match up, but the same principle applies - if Florida's bigs get the ball deep in the paint, game over.

USC has the toughest road to hoe, but then no one looked better than the Trojans in the second round. Would love to see them knock off Taylor Hansborough and Carolina, but something tells me UNC is going to get out on SC's shooters a little bit better than Texas did. One question - where was that Daniel Hackett all year? Bruins Nation isn't in their corner, and we won't be either after the next round. SC in the Final Four would be a bit too much to bear.

Michigan canned Tommy Amaker, so the Duke Assistant Coaching curse continues. Ben Braun was named in one story as a potential replacement - kudos to Ben's agent. He's got a slightly better chance of landing that job than I do.

Tony Bennett is a candidate for every coaching vacancy in America. I don't think writers even fact-check it - they just assume that any right-thinking individual would want to leave Pullman at the first opportunity. I suspect he'll stay.

Reason #156 that MGoBlog is the best team blog in the land: this wicked cool 3rd down efficiency chart. We'll have more on Cal's #s later this week.

The naked protest at the Oaks got national publicity, and the good folks at EDSBS found an unlikely political appointee among the rabble. San Diego newsreaders balefully shook their heads when reading the item as Tightwad hurled everything within reach at the TV. Oh, if only Berkeley were not a hermetically-sealed bubble of liberal anachronism. We might actually get something done once in a while.

THE NAKED TRUTH

2007-03-16T15:08:00.000-07:00

What better way to start off your St. Patrick's Day revelry than by joining a bunch of naked protesters at the Oaks. From 10 to noon tomorrow, you too can join the rogues gallery of anti-University agitators in ditching your clothes and lying awkwardly on tree branches for "noted photographer" Jack Gescheidt. It may be a bit cold, but Mr. Gescheidt presumably will show his models the same respect afforded those in the above picture - so no shrinkage issues to deal with. According to the release, the protesters will create a "Tree Spirit photograph, depicting our interdependence with trees in general, and with this specific grove of native oak trees threatened by state plans to uproot them."

The photographs will be memorialized in the Tree Spirit Project website, as well as a pair of subscription websites: Hippies Gone Wild and Filthy Arborist Whores ($4.99/month and I don't recommend either). Hope you can make it - if you're on the fence, just imagine what you'll be missing:

DAY ONE THOUGHTS

2007-03-16T09:02:00.000-07:00

Only got to viddy parts of a couple of contests due to work. I did see what I needed to see from Washington State, and I am chagrined by my lack of faith in The Hated One and his charges. Bennett showed today why he's going to be a better coach than his old man, turning the Cougs loose after Oral Roberts had shown they could trade punches with WSU in the half court. WSU is now a pretty intriguing team, and I think they should match up really well with Vandy's three point shooters in Round 2.

The second game was Indiana/Gonzaga, which was interesting if a little bit ragged. Gonzaga doesn't have the athletes this year. Indiana settles for too many threes (which they hit tonight); they'll have to find some way to get it inside to avoid a blowout loss to UCLA on Saturday.

And finally, Stanford showed us that there are worse things than failing to get into the tournament.

Overall it was a blah Day 1, and my bracket (as predicted) took a beating, with two Sweet 16 teams eliminated (ORU and Duke). Oh well, I got the 8/9 games right, and I resisted the siren's lure of Davidson and Old Dominion (unlike many of my work colleagues). On to Day 2, as I turn to Holy Cross and Georgia Tech to get me back in business.

TIGHTWAD HILL'S BRACKET

2007-03-14T13:00:00.000-07:00

The following is the result of a combination of statistical analysis (Pomeroy, ASM, etc) and gut instinct. It is almost certainly wrong, so please do not take it seriously or change your bracket based on what you read here. This is primarily for your amusement as my dark horses go lame in the opening round, and my Final Four teams fail to get out of the round of sixteen. This bracket is sort of old-school, in that I see three 10+ seeds making it to the Sweet 16. That result used to be the norm, but it hasn't happened since 2002 (though in every year but one since then, two 10+ teams have reached that round). Upsets are in italics:

Midwest Regional - Wisconsin is dealing with an injury, and Georgia Tech has the right profile (better conference, tournament-tested coach, good ASM) for a big second round upset. Everything else goes to plan. I toyed with the idea of taking Maryland over Florida - if the Terps win, then Oregon might make it to Atlanta. Florida, on the other hand, has too many weapons for Oregon.

Florida over Jackson State; Wisconsin over TAMU-CC; Oregon over Miami OH; Maryland over Davidson; Butler over ODU; Notre Dame over Winthrop; Georgia Tech over UNLV; Arizona over Purdue

Florida over Arizona; Georgia Tech over Wisconsin; Oregon over Notre Dame; Maryland over Butler

Florida over Maryland; Oregon over Georgia Tech

Florida over Oregon

West Regional - Hard for me to see anyone but UCLA and Kansas in the Elite 8. Duke matches up pretty well with Pitt; in fact, VCU might be a tougher nut for the Dookies in Round 1. Holy Cross is my first true long shot pick for the Sweet 16 - I think they'll get by a pair of over-rated teams in SIU and Virginia Tech. Kansas and Bill Self need to prove to me that they can make a Final Four run before I'll pick them over UCLA. Just hit your free throws, Bruins...

Kansas over Niagara; UCLA over Weber State; Pitt over Wright State; Holy Cross over Southern Illinois; Virginia Tech over Illinois; Duke over VCU; Indiana over Gonzaga; Villanova over Kentucky

Kansas over Villanova; UCLA over Indiana; Duke over Pitt; Holy Cross over Virginia Tech

Kansas over Holy Cross; UCLA over Duke

UCLA over Kansas

East Regional - The first 1 seed to depart? North Carolina, who I think will struggle with Michigan State's toughness and inside game. MSU's got great stats, if not a great record, and I trust Izzo. Mixed emotions on the Wazzu pick, but the Cougars just aren't hitting on all cylinders right now and ORU is pretty good. Two religiously-affiliated schools in the Sweet 16? God willing.

North Carolina over E Kentucky; Georgetown over Belmont; Oral Roberts over Washington State; Texas over New Mexico State; USC over Arkansas; GWU over Vanderbilt; Boston College over Texas Tech; Michigan State over Marquette

Michigan State over North Carolina; Georgetown over Boston College; Oral Roberts over GWU; Texas over USC

Texas over Michigan State; Georgetown over Oral Roberts

Georgetown over Texas

South Regional - The only regional where I see the top 4 seeds surviving to the Sweet 16. Xavier could give Ohio State a scare in Round 2. A&M is the best and most balanced team in this bracket, and they've got enough to get past Memphis in the Sweet 16. I'm not terribly impressed with either OSU or Virginia - the gap between #3 A&M and #4 Virginia is huge, in my opinion. The Long Beach State pick is pretty uninformed, though they have a really nice back court. Some 12 seed has to win, and this one seems as likely as any.

Ohio State over C Connecticut; Memphis over North Texas; Texas A&M over Penn; Virginia over Albany; Long Beach State over Tennessee; Louisville over Stanford; Nevada over Creighton; Xavier over BYU

Ohio State over Xavier; Memphis over Nevada; Texas A&M over Louisville; Virginia over Long Beach State

Ohio State over Virginia; Texas A&M over Memphis

Texas A&M over Ohio State

Final Four - I want to pick the Bruins here, but you never know when the FT shooting issue will bite them. These would be epic semis, regardless of who prevails: My best guess:

Florida over UCLA; Texas A&M over Georgetown

Texas A&M over Florida

CINDERELLAS

2007-03-13T17:00:00.000-07:00

Here's a guard-heavy ten man roster of my favorite Cinderella players since the NCAAs expanded to 64 teams in 1985. All of these guys played a major role in leading their teams to first-round upsets.

Guards:

Bryce Drew, Valparaiso (1998). The play. The shot. The dive. The celebration. The best tournament moment - ever.

Ken "Mouse" McFadden, Cleveland State (1986). The face of Cleveland State, along with their unfortunate cokehead coach Kevin Mackey. They took down Indiana in a game immortalized in John Feinstein's Season on the Brink; the loss would be a rallying point for Bob Knight's title run a year later.

Bo Kimble, Loyola Marymount (1990). The heart and soul of the most emotional run in tournament history. Left-handed free throws in honor of a fallen friend. I had the great pleasure of watching them beat a very good Alabama team in the regional semis. Total magic. He scored 45 points in LMU's first-round upset of New Mexico State.

Steve Nash, Santa Clara (1993). Sometimes these Cinderellas have second acts. Nash is one who has gone on to do even greater things in the pros. As a collegian, he led the Broncos to a shocking upset of #2 Arizona back in the day when Lute Olson couldn't coach in the tournament.

Pete Meyers, Arkansas-Little Rock (1986). Scored 29 points in 29 minutes to knock off #3 Notre Dame. Later became famous as guy who (for a short time) succeeded Michael Jordan as Chicago's starting two-guard.

Forwards:
Harold "The Show" Arceneaux, Weber State (1999). Single-handedly eliminated North Carolina with 36 points in maybe the most dominant first-round performance in modern tournament history. Never caught on in the NBA, oddly enough.

Gabe Lewullis, Princeton (1996). The freshman was the guy who slipped behind a back pick and made the layup that knocked out the defending champion Bruins. Lewullis would go on to be a three-time All-Ivy pick, and Cal fans remember him as a first-round problem the following season. Today's he's an orthopedic surgeon, apparently.

Taylor Coppenrath, Vermont (2005). The hulking kid with incredible game and, for a week, the toast of all New England. Scored 16 points as the Catamounts (!) upset #4 seed Syracuse.

Tarvis Williams, Hampton (2001). Williams was far and away the best player on the Hampton squad, but he got into early foul trouble against #2 Iowa State. He notched his fourth foul with 13 minutes to play and the favored Cyclones making a run to take the lead. His coach left him in, and he made the four-footer with six seconds left that sealed the 2-15 upset.

Center:
Darryl Bedford, Austin Peay (1987). Bedford, a center, stepped outside to help Peay knock off favored Illinois. He made five 3's on the way to 24 points in a 68-67 upset of #3 Illinois, who were led by Kendall Gill and Nick Anderson.

Coach:
Dick Tarrant, Richmond. Tarrant's Richmond Spiders were the Cinderella team of the late 80s and early 90s. In '88 they knocked off defending champion Indiana, and in '91 took out two-seed Syracuse at Cole Field House - I was there, and have never had more fun cheering for an underdog.

MORE ON THE BRACKETS

2007-03-13T09:17:00.000-07:00

Ken Pomeroy's rolling out his preview today. He uses an algorithm called log5 to express each team's Tourney chances as a percentage. It's fascinating stuff that I highly recommend. The great thing about Pomeroy is he knows both hoops and math, and acknowledges that stat IQ doesn't necessarily trump basketball IQ. Of course, he's got loads of both.

In the Midwest, he likes Wisconsin a lot more than I do, though he acknowledges that the injury to Brian Butch is a big question mark. According to Pomeroy, this is the most wide-open bracket, with six teams having at least a 5% chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio (Florida, Wisky, Maryland, Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia Tech).

He notes that Oregon has struggled on defense in the second half of the season, and isn't sure whether their fine D in the Pac-10 tournament is indicative of a trend. I'm not sure either, but I do know that Oregon is moving on offense as well as any team I've seen this year. Their blowout of SC wasn't just about a hot shooting afternoon - their ball movement led to loads of uncontested shots against a very good defensive team.

The West is interesting - he sees Kansas as the clear favorite based on a relatively easy bracket draw. Only UCLA, Duke and Pitt have a greater than 5% chance of emerging from the West according to his numbers.

He'll presumably have a look at the South and East regionals later today. As for this site, I'll have more on the Tournament later today.

TOP SECRET SPRING PRACTICE REPORT

2007-03-12T20:31:00.000-07:00

No, just kidding - Cal as expected has closed spring practice to the public. I'll never understand why fans bitch about this. I'm as big a Cal fan as the next guy, and the quality of my life isn't compromised by JT closing practices. What are we missing? Half-assed critiques of player performance on a message board? This isn't a knock on Cyberbears at all, which features some incredibly knowledgeable football analysts. I just prefer to analyze Cal's talent based on what I see with my own eyes.

I for one am more than content waiting for the coaches to tell me who's doing well when they leak stuff through Heater and other scribes, or when they release an early depth chart. Until then, we can find other things to obsess about:

* Like Erik Ainge's torn meniscus. I for one hope that he makes a quick recovery, though it's certain he'll miss all of spring practice. Meniscus injuries are odd things; sometimes athletes recover in a few weeks; other times it takes much longer to get back to 100%. It's not so much that Ainge needs the work; but he is trying to establish chemistry and timing with a fleet of new receivers.

* Or Cal's '08 football recruiting. UCLA has a bunch of very early commits; good for them. Some early commits stick; lots look elsewhere as it gets closer to signing day...eleven months from now. It's better to have them than not, though, since it can create momentum in a region like LA (where the Bruin commits hail from). For those interested, Cal has only one '08 commit - OL Tyler Rigsbee, whose dad is the AD at Butte JC. For the record, I'm not worried.

* Or DeVon Hardin's draft status. His returning to school seems like a no-brainer, but stranger things have happened (Jamal Sampson). Never underestimate the NBA's willingness to whisper sweet nothings to players who have more upside than achievement on the resume. Here's hoping that the big guy makes the right call and returns to Berkeley next year. We don't want yet another mulligan for Mr. Braun.

* And finally, the complete and utter lack of white supremacist symbols and rhetoric associated with our football team. Are we just going to let USC set the standard for everything in this conference? Seriously (for those of you who didn't get the sarcasm) I'd like to hear from someone - anyone - who can justify the fact that USC is washing its hands of the affair. Boys will be boys, but boys usually don't juxtapose flaming swastikas with their school's logo on Facebook. Our friends at Conquest Chronicles are suitably outraged (as is every other Trojan I know), but the school is looking the other way. What gives?

GUIDE TO THE NCAA BRACKET

2007-03-12T16:15:00.000-07:00

Many of you are looking at your brackets and wondering which upsets to pick. It's useful to look at historical trends, and also to look at a statistic called Adjusted Scoring Margin. ASM measures the margin of victory (and defeat) for tournament teams compared with the average scoring margins for their opponents. It's one tool for evaluating teams who come from disparate backgrounds - i.e., mid-majors and big-conference teams. ASM is very useful for figuring out which teams will make deep runs in the Tournament; it's less useful in picking individual games.

Joe Lunardi makes a big deal about ASM; so does a guy named Nate from a blog called Nate's Random Stuff. He has helpfully done the research on ASM and made it available online for your review. Nate also has a formula that he says is more accurate called CRACK - don't ask, it's rather complicated but you can find it elsewhere on the site. We'll reference Nate's ASM rankings in this guide to bracket matchups.

1-16: As you all know, it's never happened - though there have been some close calls. Georgetown and Oklahoma in '89 won by a single point; more recently Purdue beat Western Carolina by a deuce in 1996. Resist the temptation, though.

2-15: It's happened four times, most recently in 2001 when Hampton beat Iowa State 58-57. I, along with lots of other bandwagoners, took Winthrop over Tennessee last year - resist the temptation in '07.

3-14: 17% of 14-seeds win in the opening round. That's a pretty amazing statistic when you think about it - almost one in five. It's happened in each of the last two tournaments - last year Northwestern State got Iowa and in 2005 Bucknell upended Kansas. There aren't a lot of good candidates this year:

Texas A&M-Penn; Oregon-Miami OH; Pitt-Wright State; and Washington St-Oral Roberts. Penn isn't going to beat A&M, and I doubt Oregon will be tripped up by Miami OH. Pitt should whip Wright State. That leaves Wazzu against Oral Roberts. ORU won at Kansas this season, and their ASM (#77) is nearly as high as Wazzu's (#53). I'd hate to see the Cougs fall victim to the upset, but it's a very reasonable pick.

4-13: 20% of 13 seeds win in the opening round. It's happened in five of the last six Tournaments. It probably behooves you to pick one (but not more than one) of these in your bracket.

Virginia-Albany; Texas-New Mexico State; SIU-Holy Cross; and Maryland-Davidson. The latter two games are by far the best candidates. SIU has a very low ASM for a four seed, and Ralph Willard is a tournament-tested coach at Holy Cross. Maryland is a good team, but Davidson's ASM is higher than the majority of teams in the Tourney. Your choice on which to pick; I lean toward Holy Cross for no good reason.

5-12: The magic number. One third of 12 seeds win their games. Starting in 2001, every year has had at least one 12-5 upset, and most years have had more than one. In 2002 all but one of the 12 seeds won; last year both Montana (over Nevada) and Texas A&M (over Syracuse) scored the upset. Interestingly, it's a relatively recent phenomenon - in the early days of the 64-team field 12-5 upsets weren't all that common. You need to pick at least one and probably two of these if the games look right.

Tennessee-Long Beach State; USC-Arkansas; Virginia Tech-Illinois; Butler-Old Dominion. Of these, ASM points you to pick Arkansas over USC. I just don't see it. Instead I'll take the Illini to drop an inconsistent Virginia Tech team, and that's it. If I had to pick another one, it would be LBSU over Tennessee.

6-11: Fewer 11 seeds than 12 seeds win in the first round (31%). Still it's likely to happen at least once in '07.

Louisville-Stanford; Vandy-George Washington; Duke-VCU; Notre Dame-Winthrop. Vandy is terribly overseeded, so consider them as a victim here. Winthrop is the trendy pick to drop the Irish, but Notre Dame is a pretty good team (12th in the nation in ASM) who almost knocked off Georgetown in the Big East semis. I'd probably lean toward GW here.

7-10: Hardly an upset anymore; 40% of 10-seeds win. The same rule applies - pick one or two if the matchups look right.

Nevada-Creighton; Boston College-Texas Tech; Indiana-Gonzaga; UNLV-Georgia Tech. ASM suggests that you consider the Blue Jays to knock off Nevada, but I don't see it. Georgia Tech over Vegas makes much more sense to me, given the historical poor performance of the MWC in the NCAAs. Gonzaga is intriguing, but Indiana is a pretty good 7 seed. I don't see Texas Tech doing much with Boston College, but that's more of a match-up problem since no one on the Raiders can guard Jared Dudley.

8-9: 9's win more frequently than 8's (53% of the time). Pick at least two.

BYU-Xavier; Marquette-Michigan State; Kentucky-Villanova; Arizona-Purdue. Xavier really doesn't belong based on their resume, but I was shocked to discover that the Musketeers are 14th in the country in ASM. I'm going to pick three "upsets" here, with Arizona the only 8 seed to survive.

THE BRACKETS - FIRST IMPRESSIONS

2007-03-10T18:50:00.001-08:00

First off, any of you who harbored hope of a miracle NIT bid for our Bears should check the invite list. Washington didn't get an NIT bid, so it's clear Cal was never in the mix. Aside #1: Washington was a regional cover for the frickin' SI college hoops preview - has any team received that kind of hype and failed to make the post-season? Aside #2: UW got screwed.

On to the NCAA's. Bear-less as it might be, it's still the greatest sporting event in America. We observe certain rules in rooting in March, and here they are:

* Thou shalt root for the Pac-10, excepting Stanford. I have never bought the theory that conspicuous failure is good for the conference and its teams. So I will root for five of the six teams in the Tourney to do well, and I'll even root for Stanford to get by Louisville because Rick Pitino gives me the heebies. Three or four conference teams in the Sweet 16 would be great for our rep, and perhaps give Tom Hansen a reason to wake up and renegotiate our TV deal.

* I like to pick two types of dark horses. The first is an actual long-shot (8 seed or below), and the other can be anything between a three and five seed. This year, the real dark horse is Holy Cross. Why? No reason. The legitimate dark horse? Texas A&M. Hardcore school with passionate and polite fans, and you've got to love Acie Law's game.

* I'll enter too many pools with at least three different approaches to filling out the bracket. The first is a thoughtful analysis, looking at proven Tourney factors like Adjusted Scoring Margin and previous trends (such as the frequency of 5/12 upsets, etc); the second will be a more subjective bracket that is inevitably wrong; and the third will be totally random (and will probably out-do the first two. Right now I'm in Neuheisel's pool, and that's it - anyone else want to take my money?

As for the brackets themselves, I don't think Cal hurt UCLA too badly by knocking them down to a 2 seed in the West. Kansas is the softest of the 1 seeds IMO, despite their high ranking. If UCLA were a 1 seed, who knows what kind of 2 seed would have been shipped West? Wisconsin's the only 2 seed who I think would be an easier matchup than the Jayhawks. BTW, Ben Howland spent an inordinate amount of time praising Cal and Ubaka in his interviews this afternoon - very nice pub.

Oregon seems to have a nice field in front of them; their two-seed, Wisconsin, is rather weak. Florida looms in the Elite 8, however. Vitale suggested that Arizona could knock off Florida in the 2nd round, which shows you how much Vitale has watched Arizona this year.

Ohio State has the easiest road to the Elite 8 (BYU, Tennessee/Virginia in front of them). Washington State got an awful draw, in the same side of the East bracket with Georgetown. That assumes of course they can get past Oral Roberts (who beat Kansas) in the first round. SC has a likely second round matchup with Texas, so scrap them from the Sweet 16 list. Unless, that is, they can find a way to stop Vince Young and the shotgun spread.

More on the Madness tomorrow.

THAT'S THAT

2007-03-09T21:16:00.001-08:00

An incredible first half by Oregon was too much to overcome for the Bears, whose season ends with a 81-63 loss. The Ducks are peaking at the right time, and could make a nice run in March if they continue to play sound defense and move as well as they did in the first half on offense.

As for Cal, the season ends in an odd mix of triumph and disappointment. Thursday's shocking upset of UCLA is a great memory, but it's just one memory in a season full of injuries and second-half collapses. Braun is staying, but extension or no the jury's out on his future in Berkeley. In Sandy we trust - and specifically, we trust her to recognize that this University deserves something more than it's been getting from its basketball program.

It should be an off-season full of interesting subplots - three important rehabs, the incorporation of Jamal Boykin, one seemingly obvious NBA Draft decision, and one far less-obvious commitment decision by highly-touted HS junior Drew Gordon. I'll sum it all up in a bit, after a preview of the Bear-less NCAAs. Ben is still saying the right things about the NIT, but Cal would be the first sub-.500 team in the tournament's history to receive an invite.

In the meantime, all thanks and gratitude to Ayinde Ubaka and Alex Pribble for their heart and commitment to the program. A shame they couldn't go out under better circumstances.

PAC-10 SEMIS - CAL v OREGON

2007-03-09T10:18:00.000-08:00

Who would've thunk it? Cal will now play its third game in 72 hours against the Oregon Ducks, who aren't the best opponent for a tired bunch of Bears. The Ducks are smallish and quick, and our Bears have tailed off in the second half of each of the previous two games this season. Of course, the same was true of each UCLA game, so let's not despair.

What's interesting about the Ducks is what they did defensively to Arizona yesterday. The Cats had a big size advantage up front with Radenovic and Hill, and Oregon effectively fronted the post and denied entry passes from Shakur and Williams. Radenovic took seven shots all day, making only two. Hill had better success (15/14) but he was about it for Arizona. Budinger, Williams and Shakur went a combined 11-37 from the floor as Oregon's swarming defenders contested every shot.

Arizona's an up and down team, so you could expect a collective off night. But Oregon showed something very different yesterday - they really haven't played that type of defense since early in the season (notably in a road win against a very different type of offense in Georgetown).

Cal is a different matter - tonight's game matches two of the more 3-happy teams in the conference. Cal shoots lots of threes because it's our strength - our "five" has shooting guard range on his jumper and the Bears can't score much from the post. Oregon shoots lots of threes because they shoot lots of threes. While it's true that Leunen is their only scoring big, the Ducks have lots of effective slashers and penetrators who can break down defenders and score in the lane. Too often they seem to just get lazy and settle for threes.

The key to beating Oregon is pretty simple (if difficult to pull off). Shut down dribble penetration, and hope for an off night from their shooters. Can Cal's back court pull off another terrific defensive performance? On the other end, can Ryan Anderson and Theo Robertson score inside and perhaps get Leunen into foul trouble (as he did in the win at Haas)? Those are the questions for tonight's game. If Cal answers them and somehow keeps their legs, then they can absolutely make it to their second consecutive conference final.

In light of yesterday's stunner, I won't even attempt to offer a prediction - I'll just leave you with a hearty and emphatic:

GO BEARS!!!

CAL "PISTOL-WHIPS" UCLA

2007-03-08T20:12:00.000-08:00

What the hell just happened? (AP/Matt Sayles)

Not really, of course, but I just had to make light of the least accurate prediction in a long line of really bad Tightwad Hill predictions.

This game was all about Ayinde Ubaka. 29 points, 5-6 from three, and the clutch basket down the stretch. Let's be fair - Ayinde's senior year was a mild disappointment. A bad flu bug limited his effectiveness, and he sparred (justifiably) with Braun after the horrific loss at Wazzu. This amazing performance doesn't erase the frustration of a .500 campaign, but it's the perfect capper to a distinguished career. Congratulations, Ayinde.

This game was also about Arron Afflalo taking only seven shots in 38 minutes. Even the POY can have an off day, but you have to also give some credit to the Bears for playing inspired defense. A completely different performance in terms of intensity and communication on the defensive end. And, it didn't hurt that the rebound differential was only 31-29.

Bruins Nation is taking this game as they should - as a troubling development, but hardly a sign of the apocalypse. Afflalo won't play a worse game the rest of the way out. The Bruins looked a little flat on defense, and they struggled mightily from the stripe. And Cal - despite their ups and downs this season - is one of the more talented and disciplined 8 seeds in the history of this conference's tournament. When an opponent plays badly in all phases of the game, and one of Cal's two big guns goes off, then sure, the Bears can beat lots of teams. I never thought all of those conditions would be met today, against the Pac-10 champions.

Now of course we have to deal with a question that seemed unthinkable just 12 hours ago: Can Cal win the Pac-10 tournament? The answer's still probably "no," but you've got to think our Bears have at least a puncher's chance against the Ducks. After that, who knows? I'll have something up on Oregon tomorrow - until then, drink in the most surprising Cal basketball victory in, well, ever. (Or was the Duke upset in the '94 tourney more surprising? Thoughts?)

GO BEARS!!!!

I'M BACK

2007-03-08T13:04:00.000-08:00

Apologies for the lack of posts - I wish it was because I'd been enjoying myself at Staples, but alas fate conspired against me and I've been stuck here with work responsibilities in America's finest cul-de-sac.

Two important things have happened this week. First, Sandy Barbour made it pretty clear that we've got at least one more year of Ben (Braun) ball with her public comments in support of the coach. As I said earlier, I think it's time for a change provided that we've got some indication that an upgrade is out there (Monty, etc) who would be willing to take the job and salary package. I trust Sandy - a very smart administrator with a good track record - to hold Ben to a high standard in '07-'08 and (in the meantime) get her ducks lined up if the team falls short of expectations. I was more than a little concerned about her statement that Ben has done a great coaching job this year - I don't see it, and I'm interested to know where our readers come down on this specific point.

Secondly, Ryan Anderson went off last night and led Cal's domination of the truly hapless Beavers. Speaking of coaching changes, what the hell is Jay John doing with that program? For those, like me, who grew up in a conference dominated by UCLA and OSU, it's almost sad to see what Beaver basketball has become.

But back to Ryan. It's great to see a freshman in his 30th game this season have that kind of performance. No tired legs for RA, who seemed to be sending a message to conference coaches that he had as much claim on the FOY award as Budinger, Hawes and the rest of the stellar Pac-10 freshman class. We're gonna get pistol-whipped by UCLA in about an hour and a half, but Ryan's 27/14 performance gives us further reason for optimism heading into next year. DeVon makes the right decision, rehabs go well, Boykin lives up to his rep, Randle steps up - and we should have a Sweet 16-level team next year.

I hope Sandy agrees.

PAC-10 HONORS AND TOURNEY PREVIEW

2007-03-05T15:30:00.000-08:00

So the Pac-10 handed out its hardware today, and as expected Cal didn't get much of it. Aaron Afflalo is a deserving choice as POY and we are very hopeful that the Bears will see the last of him on Thursday. Chase Budinger beat out Ryan Anderson and the rest of a decorated freshman class to win FOY honors, and the hated Tony Bennett is the pick as COY.

Interestingly, Budinger did not receive enough votes to merit Honorable Mention all-Pac 10 honors, but Anderson and fellow freshman Spencer Hawes did. Strange. I still suppose Budinger is a good choice, given how Ryan's game tailed badly toward the end of the season. Ayinde Ubaka was also named HM.

The all-conference team is as follows: Afflalo, Collison, Marcus Williams, Aaron Brooks, Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver, Nick Young, Lawrence Hill and Jon Brockman. Not much to quibble with there, though I'm surprised that Ivan Radenovic didn't make the first team. One thing that bugs me about the all-conference team is that positions don't matter; the group above has only one 4/5 player (Brockman). Of course, three centers made the All-Pac 10 offensive line last season, so it's a problem in both major sports.

Now on to the Staples Center. After years of mediocrity, the Pac-10 is finally a true power conference, and this week's conference tournament is occasion to celebrate this resurgence. Despite the recent feckless play of our Bears, I'd encourage all of you within shouting distance of downtown LA to pick up a ticket for Thursday's action - it should be great entertainment. As always, there are a few subplots to enliven the festivities, and we try to summarize them here in a handy guide to the mini-madness at Staples.

Subplot #1: Does Stanford need a win to get in? The Cardinal were as high as a #5 seed just a short while ago, and they've got that lustrous home win over UCLA on the resume, but the second half of the season has been a bit of a nightmare: they've lost five of their last eight. Lunardi has them as a #10 seed, and doesn't list them in his "last four in" section (currently populated by Illinois, Purdue, Old Dominion and Missouri State). But if a few conference tournaments go sideways, then it's easy to see Stanford on the outside looking in next Sunday. They draw USC on Thursday, and they've matched up pretty well with the Trojans this year.

Subplot #2: Can Washington make a big run? Assuming the Dawgs get past ASU in the play-in round, they would draw Wazzu in the second round. The Cougs look suddenly mortal, and Washington is coming off its best defensive performance of the season in the upset of UCLA. It's not unreasonable to think that UW could find themselves in a rematch with UCLA in the finals (though it is unreasonable to think they could beat the Bruins twice in one week). Would a 21-13 mark get them in? Probably not, but it would make for great theater.

Subplot #3: If Cal loses to OSU on Wednesday - a distinct possibility - will Ben get the axe? You know my view on the subject, and a loss to the lowly Beavers would only strengthen the case for dismissal - injuries or no. Is Sandy looking for a reason to make the change? I'm not even going to speculate about an NIT bid, since Cal would need to beat UCLA in the second round and I don't see how that can happen. Washington looks to be the only NIT bid from the conference.

Subplot #4: How bad will Arizona look? Well, they'll be wearing these duds on Thursday:

That's right. Skin tight tops and, um, bloomers. Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot. I presume you don't need to know that Nike is behind this, so I'll skip that bit.

Someone stop them, please. See you at Staples.

ALEX MACK AT TACKLE, AND OTHER INTERESTING ITEMS

2007-03-05T08:51:00.000-08:00

Jay Heater's been making up for lost time, with a flurry of posts since his return from vacation last week. With Jay's stuff, you usually have to read between the lines a little bit, so we'll provide you with some helpful interpretation.

OL
What do you do with a returning all-conference center? Move him to tackle, of course. That's what Jay says Coach Mich wants to do with Alex Mack, making room for the very talented Mark Gray to crack the starting lineup. Or maybe Chris Guarnero, who Coach Mich seems to love. Elsewhere, Jay calls out De la Puente and Malele, which is probably a good idea. Favorite quote - Kevin Bemoll "has natural strength equal to Ryan O'Callaghan."

Subtext: Mich is sending a public message to Mike Tepper to get his ass in gear this spring. If he doesn't, then Mack might switch - but I wouldn't bet on it. Guarnero sounds like the real deal - why not have him and Bemoll push Malele and De la Puente for starting roles? Seems odd to have three very promising linemen in the center depth chart.

DBs
According to Heater, DeCoud will stick at safety and fight it out with lots of returners for playing time. Also, Robert Peele is apparently a safety. Huh.

Subtext: Darian Hagan is really good, and so are our other guys who haven't received much attention (Amadi, Brandon Jones). I just don't see Jesse Brooks starting at corner. In any event, Cal should have good nickel and dime packages with this type of depth.

LBs
Heater sees Moye and Felder fighting it out at the SLB position. If Felder doesn't win that fight as a junior, then something's wrong. Justin Moye is a fine football player, and the Bears could do much worse at Sam - but he's not the athlete that Felder is. Alex Cook merits only a single reference at the end of the entry, and Heater seems to imply that he'll be in the depth chart at Will (or weakside linebacker). Coach Thompson also said that Eddie Young is pushing to start at Sam.

Subtext: The coaches aren't going to anoint anyone before he straps it up for spring practice, which is why Cook got barely a mention. It's a deep chart full of good athletes, so Coach Thompson spreads the love around in the hopes that competition begets improvement all around.

BE MY GUEST

2007-03-04T21:20:00.000-08:00

Not that I'm asking you to, Sandy...after all, it has been a rough season what with the injuries and all. But if you want to make the change...if a guy is out there who you think is an upgrade, well, Sandy what can I say?

Go ahead and fire Ben Braun.

It'll be hard, I know, Sandy. The coaching fraternity will close ranks, just like they did when Bob Bockrath had the guts to can Campanelli ('bout the only good thing he did, by the by). They'll cry in their coffee and Dicky V will wail at the injustice of letting a man go after his team struggled with three key injuries. They'll point to the record of achievement: 200 wins! Tournament appearances! A Sweet 16, for crying out loud! And all this at Berkeley, to boot! The best coach at Cal since Pete Newell!

Yes, yes - Ben Braun is a better basketball coach than the Dicks (Edwards and Kuchen for you youngun's), a mediocre coach with major anger management issues and a felonious punk. And he runs a clean program, and he's a good guy, to boot. We still deserve better, not that the MSM will believe it.

It'll be tough, Sandy, but I'll have your back and so will lots of other Blues, both young and old. Here's why:

* You and I both know, Sandy, that the notion that Ben's record is perfectly fine at a school like Cal is nonsense. Total bullshit, in fact (not that I'd recommend you put it just that way). Look at the Top 20 this year - how many of those schools "deserve" their current ranking based on storied basketball histories? Florida? One final four appearance before Billy the Kid showed up in Gainesville. A&M? Please. Wisconsin? Wazzu? Vandy? There's no reason Cal can't be in that company on a consistent basis.

Oh, and just for reference sake, Sandy, Cal's been in the Top 25 for 11 weeks during Ben's 11 years - and seven of those weeks were in the 2002-2003 season. One Sweet 16 in 11 years? No conference championships? Only two second-place finishes? You have to ask yourself, Sandy - are you satisfied being ASU? Oregon State? Wazzu? Wait, scratch that last one. Well, those are the only Pac-10 teams during Ben's tenure who haven't had greater success than Cal on the hardwood. Oregon and USC have made Elite Eights since 1997. Washington was a #1 seed in 2005. Why them? Or, more accurately, why not us?

* Ben's not taking us to the Final Four, and you and I both know it. In fact, I've done a wee bit of research to back it up. Looked at every coach to reach a Final Four since the field expanded to 64 teams back in '85. Only one coach has ever made it to the Promised Land after spending at least 11 years with the same school and never winning a conference championship (or tournament). Betcha can guess who it is, Sandy. That's right, it's Monty. Of course, Monty had only two losing seasons in conference before the Final Four run, compared with five for Ben, but I digress. So if you think Ben Braun is really Mike Montgomery in disguise, Sandy, then go ahead and book your hotel for San Antonio next March. We'll wait and see, if you don't mind.

* Your fan base is drying up. Look, Cal ain't Notre Dame, and you gotta give the kids and alums a good reason to put down the books and come in out of the sun to watch a basketball game. Ben's as exciting as cold oatmeal, which only matters because he can't win consistently. If he did, and fans sensed that all their money and frustration might add up to a new banner or two at Haas, then they'd turn out if we played games in the forties. But you know the score, Sandy, and you know better than to trust those announced attendance figures. People have forgotten about Cal hoops. When I was there, Cal was a basketball school - I remember camping outside of Harmon for season tickets back in the day. Now the Bears play in a bright, shiny morgue.

* It's not about this year, Sandy. It's about the entire resume. Though, if you wanted to make it about this year, you could make a decent argument. OK, so the team played hard - terrific, but isn't that what you expect at a bare minimum? The injuries were tough, sure, but most teams have at least some injuries. Besides, DeVon was healthy when we pissed a game away to San Diego. At home. And once the big fella went down, what exactly did Ben do to change things up? He had a couple of months to get his height-challenged guys to learn an effective zone defense - and if anything Cal looked worse in the zone at season's end than they did at the beginning. And scoring 16 points in the second half against ASU? Well, you saw it, Sandy. What did you think? And even if you do agree with Jay John and the other back-scratchers that Ben has done a terrific job this year, there's no debating the lack of energy and buzz surrounding the program.

Now here's the caveat, Sandy...I don't recommend you fire Ben just to fire him. I've seen Dick Kuchen coach, and you'll have to trust me that change for change's sake isn't what's prescribed here. Things can get a lot worse. A lot of the apologists know this, and they use that argument to justify sticking with Ben now. But Sandy, you know that they'll use the same damn argument next year after we go 20-11 with a loaded team.

What I'm saying is don't fire Ben unless you've got someone in your hip pocket who you believe would be a better coach. Like, say, Mike Montgomery. Monty won't talk to anyone if a coach is still under contract at the school - but he's got people, and you've got people, and your people can...well, I'm not going to tell you your business, Sandy. Just take this bit of advice - if you don't have an ace in the hole - be it Monty or someone else - then you should probably let Ben come back.

And spend all of your time lining up that ace in the hole for April 2008. You're probably gonna need him.

NOT THE BEST SENIOR DAY

2007-03-03T18:00:00.000-08:00

Defense and Not Much Else (AP/Ben Margot)

Not a great way to finish the year. Losing to the #9 team in the conference (ASU is better than OSU right now) at home and scoring a grand total of 16 points in the second half qualifies as a pretty pathetic sendoff for two memorable Golden Bears. The NIT is now out of reach, barring a 2nd round upset of UCLA at Staples.

Even worse, the Haas crowd was again moribund - on a day when they at least should have shown up to enthusiastically bid adieu to two Golden Bear seniors. The listed attendance was 7900 - I think that's more than a bit of a reach.

Ayinde Ubaka played his last game in Berkeley today. He came to Cal as part of the heralded 2003 recruiting class that was headlined by Leon Powe. Ayinde's the last to go, and he leaves without the conference championship that many anticipated back on signing day.

Like a lot of guards, Ubaka's career was split in two halves. Always fairly steady with the ball, AU became a scorer as a junior last year, and took over several games down the stretch in Cal's run to the Tournament. Some might look at this career and term it a mild disappointment, given that he was a Parade All-American and there was so much optimism about his class. That's a mistake, I think. The good things Cal has done over the past couple of years have been due, in large part, to Ubaka's talents and leadership. That he and his mates didn't win a conference championship is disappointing; but we can point to other problems than the performance of #1. He's been a great Golden Bear, and I wish him well. A shame that he finishes with a 1-8 shooting performance and 3 total points.

Former walk-on Alex Pribble was also honored today. Pribble has been an inspiration to his teammates; for all his limitations, he showed how hard work can transcend potential and earn a handful of Pac-10 starts.

We'll have something up after the season on Coach Braun's future in Berkeley. As most readers know, we're somewhere in the middle of the Great Debate, but finishing the season by shooting 32% against ASU at home doesn't fill us with lots of hope for the future, injuries or no.

Only nine days to spring football practice.

ARIZONA 70 CALIFORNIA 65

2007-03-02T07:24:00.001-08:00

Last night's five-point loss was expected; how the Bears lost was as unexpected as the earthquake that shook the East Bay early in the second half.

The foul disparity between the two teams didn't improve as the setting shifted from Tucson to Berkeley. The Wildcats went 20-26 from the line, and Cal was 7 of 8. Eight free throws at home is a ridiculous number - so ridiculous that Ben Braun picked up the first home technical of his coaching career at Cal.

The Bears played pretty good defense, holding the normally explosive Wildcats to 42.6% from the floor; Arizona also turned it over 16 times. But as Alex Pribble giveth, he also taketh away. In his fifteen minutes of floor time, Pribble played tough D but shot only twice (missing both). As a team, Cal struggled at 41.9% from the floor and 28% from three. Ryan Anderson struggled all night, and the Bears were once again clobbered on the boards.

We'll have a look at ASU tonight or tomorrow; the Bears need the win to have any hopes of finishing above .500 and making any sort of case to the NIT selection committee.

BASKETBALL TONIGHT

2007-03-01T16:00:00.000-08:00

The WorldWide Leader has this article on its CBB splash page, suggesting that UCLA is "all but set" as the Tournament's #1 overall seed. How anyone can write that before the Bruins complete the very difficult Washington road trip and navigate the Pac-10 tournament is hard to understand. In any event, it feels like bad karma for tonight's game on the Palouse.

The other important game on the Pac-10 docket is, believe it or not, ASU at Stanford. Bear with me, here - Stanford has been in a bit of a spin and needs this win and some momentum going into Saturday's matchup with the Wildcats. ASU is suddenly playing pretty well, having beaten USC and nearly beaten Arizona in the past two weeks. I'm not thinking upset here, but Stanford shouldn't expect a pushover, either. If Stanford loses tonight and to Arizona on Saturday, they'll need to make a little run at Staples to get a bid, in my opinion.

All of this pales, of course, compared to the cosmic significance of tonight's game at Haas. Arizona needs this win - even with the strong RPI they're a 10 seed in Lunardi's latest edition of Bracketology. I have no idea whether Cal needs this win to get an NIT bid, since there is no such thing as an official NIT bubble, but it wouldn't hurt. Those of you with cable/satellite hookups can tune into Fox Sports Arizona to see what transpires. GO BEARS!

JAY'S BACK

2007-03-01T10:30:00.000-08:00

Jay Heater, the only MSM writer worth reading on Cal football, has begun to update his excellent blog, which you can find here. Heater is almost surely the only paid media source who could name Cal's two-deep off the top of his head, and while he's a clear admirer of JT and the program you can usually get lots of subtext between the lines of his entries. Bookmark it.

His first offering is a look at the Mike linebacker position; he'll go 'round all the position groups leading up to spring kickoff on March 12. Unlike us, Jay actually talks to coaches regularly, so expect a slightly more informed depth chart projection that the one we worked up earlier this year. Of course, the downside with Heater and other MSM sources is also that they talk to the coaches regularly, which is why blogs like this exist.

We'll be very interested to hear with Coach Thompson says about the SLB position with Alex Cook now very much in the mix. We're also eager to see where Felder fits into this crowded depth chart. Only 183 days until sweet, sweet revenge.

PREVIEW & PREDICTION - ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA

2007-02-28T22:19:00.000-08:00

First off, let me state unequivocally that Lute Olson does not have Parkinson's Disease.

Believe it or not, Lute spent the first part of his presser this week denying rumors that he's suffering from the disease. He says that his hands shake in anger and frustration because his team doesn't play defense, which sounds pretty plausible to me. It's pretty sad that these types of rumors circulate and are used by opposing programs in the recruiting wars. Here's a link to video of his remarks, courtesy of the Arizona Daily Star.

When he finally gets around to discussing Cal, he goes directly to the heart of their chance for the upset:

"They're a team that shoots a lot of threes, they create a lot of matchup problems because they have four players - perimeter guys - almost guard sized, 6'5, 6'6 and under...and Anderson, the guy that's called the post is really a perimeter player...it does create a matchup problem similar to what we had with USC, where it was hard for us to play Jordan (Hill) at the same time as Ivan (Radenovic)....It's not a team you can zone well because they have a lot of good outside shooters...you step Anderson to the outside and you've got five outside shooters."

Lute's making some important points here - the Wildcats have been rolling out a starting lineup that includes the freshman Hill alongside Radenovic, Marcus Williams, Chase Budinger and point guard Mustafa Shakur. The long Hill is much more comfortable banging down low than chasing a mobile player around the floor. So too is Radenovic.

Also, the Cats like to play a fair amount of matchup zone, and as Lute notes they may find it difficult to do so against Cal (if the shots are falling). Their defensive shortcomings are magnified in man - Marcus Williams in particular can struggle with dribble drive. When Arizona went to zone in the first matchup between the two teams, Cal got hot from outside and climbed back within shouting distance of the Cats.

Since Lute compares Cal to USC, it's worth noting that the Trojans swept Arizona this year, shooting above 50% from the floor and 40% from three in each victory. So Cal might be able to do some interesting things on offense.

Defense is quite another matter. Arizona is one of the more efficient offenses in Division 1 - 2nd in the nation in adjusted efficiency according to Pomeroy - and in the first game they torched Cal for 60.3% (72% in the first half). They also shot 28 free throws to Cal's 8; that's unlikely to be repeated tonight, although Arizona is tops in the nation in limiting free throw opportunities to opponents. (This is perhaps the greatest tribute to Lute Olson - bench jockey supreme. Seriously, I don't think there's ever been a guy who works the refs more effectively than he.)

But the questions persist - who guards the 6'7" Williams? Who stays with Budinger when Arizona does have both bigs in the game? If Cal had the first clue about how to play an effective zone, I'd recommend it here, but the memories of the USC game are still too fresh. Between them, Williams, Budinger and Radenovic went a combined 19-23 in January - and I don't think Cal has become a better defensive team since then. In fact, Cal has fallen to 131st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, surrendering an abysmal 52.3% shooting percentage by opponents.

Given these numbers, an upset of the Wildcats is probably not in the cards. Should be a relatively tight game, though, and the Vegas line (2.5 points) reflects this. We'll probably have to wait 'till next year, and hope to send Lute off into the sunset with at least one loss at the hands of a much better Bears team.

Arizona 79 California 75

CAROUSEL

2007-02-28T12:20:00.000-08:00

I've always considered the NFL draft to be a bit like Carousel - the creepy yet comical death ritual for thirty-year olds in Logan's Run. For those too young to get the reference, the society in Logan's Run required every citizen to commit group suicide as they approach their thirtieth birthday. It was like a party, climaxed by the willing victims floating to the ceiling of the ritual hall and being blown up by lasers, or something. Good stuff.

The Draft is like Carousel to me because I don't watch the NFL. The NFL is full of 9-7 teams who employ guys like Pacman Jones, governed by a corporate authority who seeks to trademark common adjectives and nouns. I prefer sustained, demonstrable excellence - where the program is bigger than the individual and tradition is something more than a uniform design. The only Cal guy I watch on a fairly regular basis is David Binn, since he snaps for the Bolts when he's not saving rainforests and banging movie stars.

I know I'm extreme in this view, so I thought it useful to look at where Cal guys might go in Carousel, along with a select number of other Pac-10 players.

The first Bear off the board figures to be Marshawn Lynch. Much has been made of an anonymous comment by an NFL scout suggesting that Marshawn has lots of baggage, based on the since-resolved sexual assault complaint filed by his ex, and, let's see, the fact that he has gold teeth and ghost-rode an equipment cart. No one who spends time with Marshawn - and all the interested teams have - could possibly come away with the impression that he will be a problem at the next level. That quote is either a) from a scout whose team hasn't had such an interview, or b) is purposefully designed to lower Marshawn's stock so said scout's employer has a better chance of nabbing him. More than a couple mock drafts have Marshawn going at #16 to Green Bay, which would reunite him with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are a bit of a nightmare right now, and I'm hopeful Marshawn goes elsewhere.

Next up should be Daymeion Hughes, who didn't have a very good combine. He ran a 4.7, and some think this will push him down to the mid-2nd round. Not a big fan of the combines, but speed at corner is pretty important. Hughes will run again in individual workouts for interested teams, so he'll another bite at the apple. His cover skills received loads of praise from NFL scouts at the Senior Bowl. Lots of dissension about where he will go; the highest I've seen is Fox, who has him going to New Orleans at #27.

The third Bear off the board should be Brandon Mebane, who figures to be a 2nd-3rd round pick by a 3-4 team looking for an active nose tackle. I really hope Brandon finds himself in a good situation; he's a hard worker whom I'll always remember fondly.

Who else might get drafted? Desmond Bishop is the only other guy who has a shot of having Gene Washington call his name on Day 2. The rap on him is he's a step slow to play MLB in the League, especially with more and more teams asking a lot of the position in the passing game. Feh. He's got great lateral coverage, plays hard and hits. He'll hang on somewhere.

Elsewhere, NFL Draft Day is an occasion to celebrate the fact that certain opponents won't be around to torture us next year. Chief among them is Dwayne Jarrett, who figures to go in the mid-1st round. Good riddance. Other Trojans who should go on Day 1 include Steve Smith, who I think will be a good pro, and Ryan Kalil, who I think was the best player on USC last year and will be a great pro. Zach Miller, the ASU tight end, will go in the 1st or 2nd round - he is a great physical specimen who should do pretty well at the next level. Eric Frampton will be a 2nd or 3rd round pick out of Wazzu - glad to see this really underrated DB leave Pullman.

Further down the board we get to two of the most interesting Pac-10 draftees: Stanford QB Trent Edwards and Arizona RB Chris Henry. Neither did much in college 'cause they had little support and each spent big portions of their careers on their backs courtesy of awful offensive line play. Henry ran a 4.33 forty at the combine, which has some teams very interested in his services. Edwards is still the guy who was a 5-star recruit out of HS - 6'4" with a nice arm, which may push him into the late second round.

Lots of other guys, but I'll flag a few - OSU safety Sabby Piscitelli, who has run a 4.5 and plays with his hair on fire, will make some team very happy. Fellow Beaver Adam Koets is a mid-round guy who has confounded experts at every level and has enough size to be a serviceable OT in the pros. Stanford's Michael Okwo isn't big enough, but he's a great football player and that's enough for me - probably a good pick in the 5th or 6th round. Lastly, Mkristo Bruce might not even get drafted. Bruce's physical measurements are below-average for an NFL defensive end - in particular he's run 5.0 on a couple of occasions. I don't care. I watched Mkristo Bruce dominate the Pac-10 for the last two years and I'll be hoping that a good team picks him up in the mid-late rounds. He will be a good pro, even in a backup role.

And if Mel Kiper disagrees, he can go suck it.

FREE ZACHARY RUNNING WOLF

2007-02-27T15:06:00.000-08:00

Zachary Runningwolf has been cruelly and unconscionably detained by an overzealous Berkeley police officer. Said officer over-reacted to some innocuous comments made by Zachary at the sacred Indian Burial Ground/Old-Growth Forest. Quoth Zachary: "You're going to get yours...we're going to do what we have to...we're going to shoot you (expletive)."

As clarified by fellow tree-sitter Terri Compost, Runningwolf was clearly referring to the Mayan calendar. If the University truly cared about justice and decency, they would assign a more sensitive police force with a firmer grasp of esoteric Mesoamerican cultural references to the glade. I mean, is that too much to ask for in the year 2007?

Why can't the UC recognize that Zachary is a leader for the 85,000 Native Americans living in the Bay Area? That his impressive list of accomplishments includes giving up his car (and associated payments) five years ago and inspiring us all by riding a bicycle to and from protest sites? That despite being an important Native American Leader/Elder, he has no income or assets of any sort, and is therefore pure as the driven snow that today blankets his home reservation in Montana? That he will put the public good above his own safety time and again? I mean, just read his own words to get a sense of what an innovative, yet basically balanced leader he is.

Free Zachary Runningwolf! For the love of all that is Good and Holy, do not silence this courageous and entertaining voice of the people.

CATCH A FALLING STAR

2007-02-27T12:41:00.000-08:00

Thursday will mark the 24th time Lute Olson has walked the visiting bench in Berkeley (or Oakland/SF, where a handful of Cal/UofA games were played). In that time, Olson has built and sustained a dynasty in the desert. Lute's players helped define the Pac-10 and western basketball for almost twenty years - from Sean Elliott and Steve Kerr to Miles Simon to Richard Jefferson.

Last year everything fell apart. The Cats won only 20 games in 33 tries, and they didn't look like a Lute Olson team. Sure, they ran and scored, but they didn't have a good offensive flow all year and their defense was well below average (221nd in the nation in field goal percentage allowed).

I hearken back to a drunken discussion I had with some Arizona boosters at last year's Pac-10 tournament. To my great surprise they almost unanimously advocated Olson's retirement - voluntary or not - after one more year. When I reminded them politely that Lute won a NC and made four Final Fours, they insisted that he should have won more with the talent afforded him. These weren't college sophomores with no sense of history, either - these guys were probably in their early forties and identified themselves as "givers" to the program.

Whatever the reasons for last year's slump, this year the pre-season hype was that Arizona and Lute were back. ESPN ran a fawning article in its Pac-10 preview suggesting that Lute had re-focused his team on fundamentals and defense, and the clear suggestion was that UofA would give UCLA all they could handle in conference. Chase Budinger, according to newspaper hacks, was the best freshman in the country next to Greg Oden. Marcus Williams was a likely POY in the Pac-10.

28 games later, none of those predictions have come true. Arizona looks like the same disinterested bunch whose effort ebbed and flowed throughout the season. They don't play good defense, and Budinger - while enormously talented - has at times struggled to assert himself in games. Williams has the offensive numbers, but looks either lost or disinterested on the other end of the floor. They have little off the bench. It's the same damn Arizona team.

Last week there was an interesting back-and-forth between Jon Wilner of the Stanford Daily, er, San Jose Mercury News and Greg Hansen, the top writer covering Arizona basketball at the Arizona Daily Star, about the recent decline of the Wildcat program. Wilner sees a general collapse of the program:

Now, after two incredible decades, 11 league titles, four Final Fours and a national title, Lute Olson’s program is fading at runaway-truck pace. After being the standard against which all other programs were measured, after forcing the rest of the league to elevate its play, the Cats have fallen into the middle of the Pac.

Then Wilner gets specific about what he sees as Lute's mistakes. You can read the article to get the full flavor, but Wilner suggests that Olson has lost his ability to communicate with his players and made bad recruiting decisions.

Hansen thinks that's a bit overblown:

Shortcomings? The Wildcats misjudged the long-range potential of Mustafa Shakur and missed it on several other recruiting evaluations, from J.P. Prince to Mohamed Tangara. To me, that is the extent of Olson's shortcomings. A few recruiting mistakes.

I'm somewhere in the middle of this debate, I suppose. I don't think Lute has lost his touch - it's rare for a venerable coach with his type of success to suddenly lose the ability to communicate with players. But I don't think you can blame Arizona's recent problems on a handful of bad recruiting decisions, either. And even if you can, Lute is ultimately to blame for those decisions.

It's not just that their "star recruits" haven't hit. Arizona's classes have almost always been rated highly, but they've also always included guys who accepted a variety of roles once they got to Tucson. What the Cats lack are the players who have helped define the program over the past twenty years - role players who might not score twenty points a game but who play defense, set good picks and get hustle rebounds.

Guys like Reggie Geary (I feel dirty writing that). Even their "stars" were players who checked their egos and played a complete game, like Luke Walton, Miles Simon (left) or Jason Terry. Wilner calls them "glue guys," and he's absolutely correct in his analysis. I'd go a step further and call them mature basketball players - guys who made enough good decisions to help Arizona win basketball games. Where are the guys with high basketball IQs?

From an outsider's perspective it almost seems as though Lute is running the program with one eye on the hourglass. Rumors suggest that his wife would like to see him retire, and he is 72 years old. Maybe the "glue guys" are harder to find in Tucson because Lute isn't recruiting them - because he knows he won't be around to see them develop into productive juniors and seniors. Maybe there's no fear left in his players, since Lute has shown a propensity to treat discipline problems with kit gloves. Whatever the reasons, I generally agree with Wilner's conclusion. The sun is about to set in the Sonoran Desert, and the conference will never again be the same.

(And if Marcus Williams goes for thirty against us Thursday, don't blame me.)

THE SWEET SIXTEEN - #7 - LEON POWE

2007-02-26T14:52:00.000-08:00

#7 - LEON POWE - FORWARD (2004-2006)
The Show. He's probably not the best basketball player in school history. But he is, without a doubt, my favorite.

For every Leon Powe there are at least a hundred kids whose situations get the better of them. His father walked out on the family when he was two. His house burned down when he was five, and Leon and family lived in temporary situations for the next several years. His mother struggled with the burdens of raising the family and was arrested for theft, fraud and drug possession. Leon missed almost his entire fifth grade year...caring for his siblings. Finally in 1998 he was placed in foster care.

And through all of this, Leon Powe got a 3.2 GPA his senior year at Oakland Tech and is on track to graduate from Cal during the NBA off-season. He suffered the type of knee injury that has ended many a career - and came back to become Freshman of the Year, an All-American and a second-round NBA draft choice.

Back in 2003, Powe was the cornerstone of a Top 10 recruiting class that also included Marquise Kately and Ayinde Ubaka. A local product, his commitment to Cal had the echoes of another famous local recruit a decade earlier. Powe did not disappoint as a freshman, averaging 15.1 ppg and 9.5 rpg (breaking the Cal single season record held by Bob McKeen). Whatever his game may have lacked in polish, Powe compensated with incredible upper and lower body strength and a relentless work ethic. He led the conference with 14 double-doubles and peaked (in my opinion) with 14 boards and 19 points in a home win over UCLA.

After his medical redshirt year, fans worried whether the same Leon Powe would return. In truth, he was better. In 2005-6, every one of Cal's opponents knew that Powe was the first option on almost every possession, and it didn't matter. Leon had improved his foul-shooting to the point where teams could no longer hack him with impunity - he finished the season at 72%. And with his strength he was able to complete many of the plays when opponents did foul him in desperation. He was a monster -the best big man I've ever seen in a Cal uniform, and one of the best in recent conference history. He averaged 20.5/10.1 and was a 2nd team All-American selection at season's end.

My enduring memory of Leon Powe is that overtime game with Oregon in the Pac-10 semifinals last year. My friends and I kept waiting for Leon to get tired, even though we almost sixty games of experience to suggest that wouldn't happen. We kept waiting for him to miss some shots from the floor - that didn't happen either as he would up 14-17. Maybe he'd start missing free throws? Turn it over? No. He drew charges, hit his free throws and pulled down rebounds. He willed his team - our team - into the conference final.

Afterwards we realized that we were watching a test. The game, the situation, the lack of support from his teammates - all of these things were testing Leon Powe as the night grew shorter. And Leon kept doing everything right. When he finally left with a minute left, cradling his injured shoulder, many Duck fans joined in the standing ovation. We had forgotten - my friends, myself, and the rest of the Staples crowd - that Leon Powe had been tested many, many times before.

CLEANING OUT THE DESK

2007-02-26T09:37:00.000-08:00

* If you read a certain message board, you'll notice two things about Cal basketball fans. One, there ain't many of them. Two, it is a given that every thread will eventually devolve into a Ben should stay/Ben must go debate. We'll tackle that question in depth later, but for now a couple of things come to mind:

* Some seem to want to give Braun a medal for getting the team to play hard. Sorry, that's competent coaching - not good coaching. And we deserve better than competent coaching.

* What in the wide world of sports was Cal doing on defense Saturday? The Bears came out in the worst zone I've ever seen. The Trojans didn't recognize it until their third (I think) possession. They didn't even need to run a cutter to the free throw line; their bigs just sauntered into the lane and caught easy entry passes eight feet from the basket. I guess my point here is that zone defense isn't rocket science, but the Bears still haven't figured out how to play it after 28 games.

* DeVon Hardin may come back for the Pac-10 tournament. Not sure this is such a good idea, given where Cal stands and the fact that stress fractures are touchy injuries.

* Enough of that loss. Elsewhere, things ran according to form over the weekend. The Wildcats were fortunate to beat ASU, who could be a handful next year. Ryan Appleby hasn't forgiven Aaron Brooks. UCLA is perfect at home for the first time since 74-75. And Stanford needs at least a split this week to get its ticket punched for the tournament.

PREVIEW & PREDICTION - CALIFORNIA AT USC

2007-02-23T14:57:00.000-08:00

No, you're thinking of that other LA school (AP/Branimir Kvartuc)

SC is one of two truly evil empires in Pac-10 football - the other being Team Swoosh - but I can't help but root for their basketball team a little bit (not tomorrow, of course). These Trojans have endured the tragic loss of Ryan Francis in the off-season, the importance of which transcends its impact on the basketball court. Their team is the antithesis of Henry Bibby's manic-depressive crews who could always be counted on to do something silly in crunch time. They usually play lock-down defense, and show much greater discipline on offense than teams past. Lastly, Tim Floyd is a solid and somewhat likable coach who is helping to build a stronger and more competitive conference.

But they're still connected to USC, so let's not get carried away.

When last we saw the Trojans, they were clawing out a narrow 76-73 victory over our Bears at Haas. Since then, they've won 4 of 6, but some cracks are showing. For one thing, top frosh Taj Gibson is wearing down physically. How do I know that? Taj Gibson said so, in a story in the LA Times. It shows in his production - two points against Arizona, a goose egg v ASU. He bounced back a bit last night, with 8 points and 8 boards against Stanford, but he's not quite the game changer he was in the first half of the season. As much as Taylor Harrison would love to take credit for getting in his head, I think we can chalk this up to freshman fatigue.

Without Gibson, USC becomes the Three Amigos on offense with Nick Young, Lodrick Stewart and Gabe Pruitt shouldering almost all the scoring burden. Against the Cardinal they had 57 of the team's 69 points. That will get them into the tourney, but they need Gibson to provide better balance to get much further than one-and-done.

SC can be turned over, and we'll see whether Ben gets creative with half-court traps and the occasional full-court pressure - Cal is of course limited in how long they can play this style by their injury situation. When USC coughs up the rock, they lose - against ASU they had 16 turnovers and backup guard Daniel Hackett had four in only 15 minutes of play.

What the Trojans have done really well all year long is play defense. USC is 9th in the nation in effective FG% (the list goes UConn, A&M, Memphis, Fresno St., Kansas, Maryland, USC and Michigan St.) Even here, though, the Trojans have had confounding stretches of ineptitude. Against ASU, an almost primitive offensive team, the Trojans surrendered 47 points in the second half.

So...glass half empty or half full? Is this a twenty-win team with gaudy defensive stats, or a tired team full of front court holes? Is the Stanford win impressive, given how big the Cardinal are inside, or is it somewhat tainted by the fact that Anthony Goods was out with an ankle sprain? Hmmm....

I think the answer is yes. SC is a very good defensive team, but they showed against ASU that they can't afford any lapses, even against a pretty feeble offensive team. They've got talented scorers on offense, but not much behind them, and therefore they struggle when any one of their big guns has an off night. And, they're now relying on pep talks from Petey to get them fired up. Not an encouraging sign.

Despite their talents, and despite the guy sitting on their bench, they can be had. Cal will need to execute like they did in the first half of last night's game, and the Bears must take care of the basketball and not waste possessions (unlike last night's game). Anderson must have another strong game, and Ubaka, Wilkes and Christopher need to bring their best on defense.

You know, it's not that far fetched.

California 72 USC 71

SPRING PRACTICE....

2007-02-23T10:00:00.000-08:00

Hope Springs Eternal in Knoxville (WBIR-TV)

...began yesterday in Knoxville, TN. The Vols were the first to sort of strap it on this season, and they will play the traditional Orange-and-White game on March 31, before six BCS conference teams have even begun their spring drills. Interesting trivia - all six are Pac-10 schools (UofA, Oregon, OSU, Stanford, UCLA and Washington). I have no idea why this is so; if anything, one would expect western teams to start early given the favorable weather relative to schools in the midwest and east. Arizona is the last to begin - St. Michael is understandably distracted with his ongoing crusade for moral propriety.

The Vols are installing a no-huddle offense, and focused on getting more pressure on the quarterback. They're also holding auditions for defensive backs, where they will have three new starters, and wide receivers (no starters return).

Cal begins on March 12, but please don't expect much in the way of reports. Tedford is notoriously sensitive about "coverage" of spring ball, and we're happy to honor his request to keep things in the family.

PLAY IT AGAIN, BEN

2007-02-22T21:39:00.000-08:00

"Play it once, Ben...for old times' sake."

"I don't know what you mean, Tightwad."

"Play it Ben. Play 'Cal Collapses in the Second Half of Big Games.'"

Yes, Ben knows that tune. We all know it, and it doesn't get any better or easier to accept with repetition.

When you shoot the lights out and you still trail the #1 RPI school in the nation on the road at halftime, well, you know what's going to happen to our short-handed Bears. Didn't make the inevitable second-half pistol whipping any less painful. Let's examine the wreckage:

* The 25-5 run in the second half turned a competitive game into a complete laugher. After a season of outstanding ball control, Cal finally lost it in the 2nd half tonight. The final line says 12 turnovers, and that tells only half the story. In addition to the seven steals and fast-break conversions, UCLA's defensive intensity interrupted Cal's motion and limited their good looks in the second half.

* Defensively the Bears really took a step backward - and UCLA was incredibly disciplined about breaking down Cal's defense and getting the ball inside. UCLA shot 61%, and it felt like they shot 85% in the second half (I don't have the breakdown yet). The Bruins attempted only eight 3's all night.

* Ben Howland is a great game coach. We knew that, but UCLA's in-game adjustments were just beautiful, if painful to watch. They still have a first-half issue, though, that might cause problems in the NCAAs.

* Josh Shipp was tremendous (22 points/6 assists) and did a nice job defensively. Lorenzo Mata somehow went 8 of 9 from the foul line. He and Aboya get no pub nationally, but they are really important parts of a very good basketball team.

* One bright spot for Cal was the play of Ryan Anderson, who appears to be back in his groove with a 21 point/6 rebound performance.

* Elsewhere around the Pac, Oregon got a big win over the Cougs that should help their seeding in the Tourney (and ensure the Cougs rise no higher than a 3 seed), and I'm glad I'm not a Washington fan.

* SC is next up for our battered Bears. They got over on the Cardinal tonight and prompted the Comical to say they've punched their NCAA ticket, so let's hope for a letdown on Saturday. As noted earlier, SC is the better opportunity for a W, as long as Braun plays a different song at halftime.

THE SWEET SIXTEEN - #8 - ANDY WOLFE

2007-02-22T10:45:00.000-08:00

#8 - ANDY WOLFE - FORWARD (1946-1948)
Most Blues, old and young, associate the dawn of California basketball with the day Pete Newell set foot on the Berkeley campus and began crafting a national champion team. In fact, when Newell brought his Bears to Louisville in 1959, he was making the school's second trip to the Final Four. The first came in 1946, and the Bears were led by a sophomore named Andy Wolfe.

In fairness you had to win only one game to make the "Final Four" in those early years, but the achievement was still remarkable for a school without much basketball tradition. The Bears punched their ticket to New York by downing Colorado 50-44 in Kansas City behind 17 points from Wolfe, more than twice the scoring output of any member of the Buffaloes team. Cal eventually lost to Oklahoma A&M and their seven foot giant Bob Kurland, who would go on to win the national championship over North Carolina.

Wolfe averaged 13.4 ppg in that first season, and won first-team all-conference honors. To qualify for the tournament Cal had to beat Idaho for the PCC championship in a best two-of-three series. The teams split the first two games, and then Wolfe scored 19 points in the rubber match to stamp Cal's ticket to Kansas City.

The forward would go on to earn All-PCC honors three times, and be named a consensus 2nd team All-American after his senior season in 1948. He smashed the Cal career scoring record of 725 points and left Berkeley as the school's first 1,000 point scorer, finishing with 1,112. More importantly, the Bears went 75-26 during Wolfe's career, their best three-year run in more than a decade.

Wolfe was drafted by the Philadelphia Warriors in 1948, but played AAU basketball for Stewart Chevrolet in San Francisco. He eventually earned his law degree from the University of San Francisco and practiced in Oakland until his retirement several years ago. Andy Wolfe was inducted into the Cal Athletic Hall of Fame in 1987, and named to the Pac-10 Hall of Honor in 2006.

PREVIEW AND PREDICTION - CALIFORNIA AT UCLA

2007-02-22T10:20:00.000-08:00

So we're playing with house money tonight. Here's the TH preview of the game no one expects Cal to win:

As Nestor and several commenters pointed out, I forgot that Afflalo matched up on Ubaka for almost all of the first meeting between the teams. My bad - I tried to wipe the memory from my mind. But the point remains - the super-quick Collison's one issue as a defender is his size disadvantage with bigger guards. Whether he's guarding Ubaka or Wilkes, Cal has a height advantage and should try to establish that guard in the post on occasion, if for no other reason than to force double teams and create some open space for cutters.

Why not? It's not like we have a lot of good options. UCLA is extraordinarily difficult to screen on the perimeter, so opponents are often reduced to passing the ball around at twenty feet, hoping for a good look from three. Teams rarely get that good look, because UCLA gets out on shooters as well as anybody. I just don't see Cal's flex offense doing much against a superior opponent without the addition of some wrinkles. The Bears need to give UCLA something - anything - to worry about in the paint to create space for shooters on the perimeter. In the first game, Cal didn't do that, and the Bears scored 46 points. Ubaka's awful game had a lot to do with that, but do you remember a lot of good perimeter looks for the Bears? I don't.

(BTW, the Bruins Nation folks can be a prickly lot. Read the comments over there - they suggest that we regurgitate material from the hated Chronicle, which to our loyal readers should be high comedy. And associating the SF rags with our basketball content is an interesting line of attack, considering that I wouldn't think BN readers would want to be tied to the LA Times' stellar, unbiased football coverage.

Nestor's a very good guy, though, and has lots of passion for his school.)

Back to the game:

* Cal takes care of the basketball as well as any team this side of Pullman, which is one thing to feel good about tonight. UCLA is 2nd in the conference in turnover margin (at +3.12/game - WSU leads)
* Shipp will likely guard Christopher, which is an upgrade from the last two opponents. How will PC respond to a tougher match-up? Don't think we can expect 24/11 tonight...
* In the first game, Collison didn't have a good offensive game, but Afflalo more than made up for it and torched Cal in the second half. The Bears should expect a better performance from DC tonight - he's the reigning Pac-10 POW, having averaged 17 ppg and 9.0 apg in the sweep of the Arizona schools.
* Cal has beaten the Bruins at Pauley the last two seasons, and Howland has been playing that up with his team this week. I expect to see a pretty motivated bunch of Bruins.
* UCLA creamed Cal on the glass in the first matchup. The box score says the Bruins had 11 offensive rebounds, and I think they converted every one. BBR suggests that Cal might zone more than usual in an effort to slow the game down, but we know how Cal struggles to rebound out of the zone. I'm not sure I agree.

Prediction? The Bears will keep it fairly close and wilt in the second half. It's a depressingly familiar outcome for our short-handed Bears, but I can't see any other result against an inspired Bruins team that is playing pretty well.

UCLA 73 California 60

SIX BIDS

2007-02-21T12:30:00.000-08:00

The only thing we know for sure about the NCAA tournament is that Cal isn't going unless they cap this strange season with an even stranger miracle finish. The conference, however, looks to be good for six bids, barring collapses by the three teams who need a little help to make the field of 64. Here's our take on it before this week's action:

IN FOR SURE

UCLA (23-3/12-2)
RPI: 1/AP: 4/ESPN: 4/Pomeroy: 6
Remaining schedule (wins in bold): Cal, Stanford, @ WSU, @ Washington
Probable seeding - #1

The UCLA/WSU game will be very important from a seeding perspective. We're guessing that the Cougars will beat UCLA in Pullman, and that could conceivably drop UCLA out of a one seed for a short time. We say "short" because we fully expect the Bruins to defend their Pac-10 Tournament championship at Staples in three weeks and enter March Madness as a deserving top seed. They remain the conference's best chance at a NC in 2007 by a long shot. The only teams that have impressed me more this year are North Carolina and Florida.

How far will they go? All the way to Atlanta.

Washington State (22-4/11-3)
RPI: 24/AP: 9/ESPN: 11/Pomeroy: 22
Remaining schedule: @ Oregon, @ OSU, UCLA, USC
Probable seeding - #2 or #3

Most websites have WSU as a #3 seed, but we think they will finish strong and make a very good case for a #2 seed. If, as we expect, they finish 4-0 and then get to the Pac-10 championship game, they will finish 28-5, which to us says two seed. Of course 2 and 3 seeds are in the same end of a regional bracket, so the difference might not be that important.

How far will they go? I see WSU as a Sweet 16 team and nothing more. Teams with active, athletic front courts could give them problems. Outside shot at the Elite Eight.

PROBABLY IN BUT COULD USE A WIN OR TWO

Arizona (17-9/8-7)
RPI: 11/AP: NA/ESPN: NA/Pomeroy: 18
Remaining schedule: @ ASU, @ Cal, @ Stanford
Probable seeding - #9

Their record is mediocre, but oh that RPI. How a 17-9 team can be #11 in the nation in RPI is beyond me - and calls the RPI formula into question, frankly. This isn't an underrated team that has played a tough schedule. This is an average team that is much less than the sum of its parts. I think they need the Cal win to feel comfortable about a bid, particularly given Arizona's history of under-achievement at Staples. If they collapse and go 1-3 the rest of the way, I don't think they get in, RPI or no. The committee has shown they'll ignore a relatively high RPI if a team struggles down the stretch.

How far will they go? As recently as early January I thought Arizona could make an Elite Eight run. Now we all know better - the Cats aren't very quick, and early signs of a defensive renaissance have evaporated during conference play. Is it conditioning, or is Lute losing his touch? Whatever the case, Arizona is good for one tournament win, tops - and that depends on what sort of opening game they draw.

Oregon (20-7/8-7)
RPI: 34/AP: 23/ESPN: 24/Pomeroy: 46
Remaining schedule: WSU, Washington, OSU
Probable seeding - #9

At the turn, we thought they might be an Elite Eight team. Now, they look...well, they look awful. They're a jump-shooting team that's a step slow on defense, and Maarty Leunen has vanished. Still, that amazing start will get them in the tourney barring a complete collapse down the stretch (and by complete, I mean losing every game).

How far will they go? The next four games will tell us a lot about the Ducks. Right now they look really tired and a prime prospect to go one-and-done.

USC (19-8/9-5)
RPI: 60/AP: NA/ESPN: NA/Pomeroy: 39
Remaining schedule: Stanford, Cal, @ Washington, @ WSU
Probable seeding - #7

The ASU loss really dinged an already-shaky RPI and put the Trojans in the position of needing to finish strong. I think they will, and it will be impossible for the committee to overlook a team with 22-plus wins that finishes third in the conference.

How far will they go? I'm gonna shake off that ASU loss and stick to my belief that USC could be a Sweet 16 team. Their big athletic wings are tough match-ups for lots of teams. Also, defense rarely slumps, and USC's is as good as any in the Pac-10.

Stanford (17-8/9-5)
RPI: 38/AP: NA/ESPN: NA/Pomeroy: 49
Remaining schedule: @ USC, @ UCLA, ASU, Arizona
Probable seeding - #6

Stanford figures to finish fourth in the conference, which should be good enough to get in. Joe Lunardi has them at a five seed, which seems a bit high. Their season-ender with Arizona is huge - even more so if Cal can beat the Wildcats the previous Thursday. If they go 1-3 to finish the regular season, Stanford will need to win a game at Staples to get in.

How far will they go? Stanford's a really interesting team. On the one hand, they have the massive Lopez twins and Lawrence Hill, who constitute a pretty terrific front court. On the other hand, their back court is mediocre to poor. The CW is that guard play reigns in March, but it's more complicated than that - Stanford's chances will depend more than any other conference team on the strengths of the other teams in their bracket.

NEED A LOT OF HELP

Washington (16-10/6-8)
RPI: 80/AP: NA/ESPN: NA/Pomeroy: 65
Remaining schedule: @ OSU, @ Oregon, USC, UCLA

If UW wins 3 of 4 (losing only to UCLA) and then makes it to the finals of the Pac-10 tournament, they would finish with 22 wins and have a fair argument despite the low RPI. Don't worry, they won't.

California (14-12/6-8)
RPI: 66/AP: NA/ESPN: NA/Pomeroy 75
Remaining schedule: @ UCLA, @ USC, ASU, Arizona

Cal's schedule is tougher than the Huskies, and the Bears would also need to win 3 of 4 and probably get to the conference final to have a good shot. The committee has tended to look at not just the teams' records but their potential to do damage in the tourney. That's where Cal might fall short, even compared with a team like Washington. And in the unlikely event that the Bears pull off the miracle finish, they'll still need to explain how they lost at home to San Diego with DeVon Hardin in the lineup.

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS

2007-02-21T08:54:00.001-08:00

Sacred

As this article indicates, the hippies have found an eighty-year old report written by an anthropologist from the University of Washington that sort of suggest that the area around the stadium might have been a Indian burial site. In reality, what the anthropologist in question found was a partial skeleton and a Mexican gold coin dating from the 19th century - but please don't pay attention to the facts.

After all, the facts don't really matter - the hippies have another interest group to drag up into the trees and yell into bullhorns. What they lack in gainful employment is more than matched, I'm sure, by their energy and enthusiasm for civil disobedience. Never mind that no one EVEN KNEW ABOUT THIS SO-CALLED REPORT until the lawyer for the hippies dug it up and shopped it around. It's still very sacred, I'm sure. Break out the smudge sticks and the burning sage, and let's party!

Sorry if you think I'm being flippant, but this is the worst sort of opportunism. This 1925 report has yet to be corroborated by any other source. Ken Lightfoot - who as the head of the UC Museum of Anthropology, knows a thing or two about the subject - is unimpressed and says the skeleton's ethnicity is undetermined. And besides, why have we heard nothing about this issue until a lawyer bankrolled by Panoramic Ave NIMBYs waved some old records in the faces of Indian activists? The original report was written eighty years ago, and no one seems to have cared about it until now...until a university project gives the activists a platform to get in the newspaper.

But here in Looking Glass Land, the facts don't matter. Volker and his ilk are playing liberal interest group roulette, and they just happened to land on the Indians this time. Next time it'll be the LGBT community, or perhaps the Aztlan crowd - after all, the Stadium really is Mexico's property, isn't it?

Besides, the activists should know that Cal would never build on an Indian burial ground. We've seen enough movies to know better...

L.A. STORY

2007-02-20T11:30:00.000-08:00

As noted by Nestor at BN, UCLA can secure its first undefeated season at Pauley since '74-'75 by sweeping the Bay Area schools. As Nestor further notes, the last time UCLA got this close to a perfect home season was 1995, when Cal blew by the eventual national champions on their home floor 100-93. The record books say that UCLA won that game, of course, thanks to Cash-n-Carry Bozeman, who passed more than a few ham sandwiches Jelani Gardner's way.

He'll excuse us for not remembering that time fondly - you say the words "Jelani Gardner" and I begin twitching. But now we know the Bruins' motivation, and there's no reason to think that UCLA will take the Bears lightly. Also, Darren Collison is coming off of his best two-game stretch of the conference season and looks to be in better form than he was in the first meeting at Haas.

So what can Cal do? Install the West Virginia 1-3-1 over the next two days? Hope that a flu bug ravages Westwood? No, the best they can do is relax and hope everyone brings their A game offensively. To the extent UCLA ever struggles, it's when opponents take care of the basketball and hit their outside shots. Cal does the former better than all but ten teams in the country. Your NCAA leaders in turnover percentage:

Butler (15.0); Houston (16.0); Washington State (16.0); VCU (16.1); UNLV (16.5); Bradley (16.6); Air Force (16.8); Virginia Tech (16.8); Seton Hall (16.9); Mississippi (16.9); Cal (17.1)

No worries there. As for the offensive side of things, Ubaka is the key. Sick with the flu, he played the worst game of his Cal career against UCLA at Haas; a healthy and inspired AU could do some interesting things with the smaller Collison in the post. As much as we like Alex Pribble's hustle on defense, Ben should consider limiting his minutes Thursday night. The Bears can't afford to play four-on-five with a UCLA team that makes its living grinding out wins in the sixties.

USC on Saturday is a different thing altogether. The Trojans, who are still my dark horse favorite to make a Sweet 16/Elite 8 run, lost inexplicably at Arizona State on Saturday. By ten points. They shot 36% from the field and 28% from two. Taj Gibson didn't score a field goal in 37 minutes of play. The Sun Devils play pretty good defense (top 100 in adjusted efficiency), but USC simply didn't bring it to Tempe. The Trojans told the papers after the game that they couldn't get into a good offensive flow:

"When we got up, we started rushing shots a little more than usual," said (Nick) Young, who had 11 points. "One shot, one rebound — they'd get the rebound and push it up. We didn't just settle down."

That's always been the risk for a team that doesn't employ a true point guard. Another troubling sign: USC had 16 turnovers against ASU, after enjoying a nice advantage against Arizona in Thursday's win (the Trojans had only 9 turnovers to Arizona's 16). Tim Floyd said after Saturday's loss that USC was "an NIT team." I don't think so, but they do need a weekend sweep at the Galen Center to feel better about their seeding.

So Saturday looks to be the better opportunity, but really Cal is playing with house money this weekend. No one expects much, so the Bears can relax and have a little fun. Who knows - maybe they'll steal a game in the process and help punch their post-season ticket.

FLIPPING THE SWITCH

2007-02-19T10:30:00.000-08:00

It often happens in the freshman year... an 18-year old looks tentative, unsure of how to proceed with the ball in his hands. The game he dominated just a year ago now seems so much faster, a frenetic series of starts and stops. The freshman makes bad decisions - he forces the issue when discretion is called for, and then retreats into a shell as offensive opportunities pass him by. He looks uncertain.

This was a fair description of Patrick Christopher for his first twenty-five games at Cal. Christopher looked like he had all the athletic tools to compete at this level. But he looked truly lost on the court, and his decisions were rarely the right ones. Too often Chris drifted back into a passive role on offense, despite starting at the three spot for most of this year. His freshman year was a disappointment, despite the flashes of potential he would show once or maybe twice a game.

And then the switch flipped, about the same time as Chris started to struggle with a groin injury. The player who sparked Cal's upset of Oregon was confident on both ends of the court; against Oregon State on Saturday, he was as good as any Cal player this year. It's not just the numbers - 24 and 11 - but the way his decision-making has improved. Because of this sudden emergence, Cal can win games like Saturday's, in which Anderson and Ubaka can't find their shots.

His emergence has immediate implications - like Cal perhaps making the NIT - but I would guess that most Cal fans are already thinking about the potential of next year's team. If Christopher has indeed turned a corner, then the Bears will return another player who can create his own offense. Theo Robertson will likely slide back down to his natural position of small forward next year. Assuming that Hardin returns (not a sure thing) and Anderson plays the four, Jamal Boykin could also get minutes at the three. Does Christopher move down to the two guard and compete with Omar Wilkes, or does he get caught in a very busy front court rotation?

All good questions - and good problems to have going into '07-'08. For now we'll just be pleased that another freshman has stepped up to shoulder some of the offensive load for Cal. On to the Arizona schools - sweep and we're in the NIT. Split, and all bets are off.

PREDICTION - OREGON STATE AT CALIFORNIA

2007-02-17T09:00:00.000-08:00

Look, we'll keep this simple. When Sasa Cuic and Marcel Jones combine for forty points, the Beavers are in any ball game. That was the case against Arizona in Corvallis, when OSU gave the Wildcats a scare before losing by six.

Against Stanford on Thursday, Cuic was 0-10 from the field and wound up playing only 17 minutes in a game that was never close. That's what Cal needs today at Haas (3 PM, FSBA and other regional stations).

OSU has the size over Cal (who doesn't?) with Kyle Jeffers in the middle along with Cuic and Jones. Jeffers has quietly turned in a very nice year on the glass, and he can pop for 10-15 on second-chance points. OSU will struggle, however, on defense matching up with the much quicker Bears. If Mr. Anderson is indeed back, then Cuic and/or Jeffers will struggle to keep up with him from the perimeter. And who guards Theo?

OSU gave Cal quite a scare in Corvallis, but that was with Jones having one of the best games of his career. The Beavs can't expect a repeat performance today, and we figure that OSU will struggle for offense. They've scored fewer than 60 points in four of their last five games. Let's make it five of six this afternoon.

California 67 Oregon State 59

THE CAKE INCIDENT

2007-02-16T14:36:00.000-08:00

I can't say I was there for the 5-OT game with Oregon in 1977, which we detailed earlier this week. But I was absolutely there at Harmon to witness the most notorious game in the 126-game history of the Cal/Oregon State rivalry.

January 7, 1990. The Cake Incident.

To set the incident up, you have to appreciate that Oregon State was one of Cal's true basketball nemeses. From 1978 until tipoff that day (twelve seasons), Cal had beaten Oregon State six times. Even the dip in OSU's program following the retirement of Ralph Miller couldn't change our fortunes. Cal fans didn't hate the Beavers, but they feared and respected them as the destroyer of post-season hopes.

That all changed when Oakland's own Gary Payton chose to matriculate to Corvallis in the late 1980s.

Payton's reputation has undergone plenty of shifts over the years, but at that time he was reviled as a showboating, trash talking punk. That he barely considered Cal during his recruitment was another thorn in the sides of Bear fans. Finally, the entire Payton clan would descend annually on Harmon to cheer on the Beavers near their bench, but right in the middle of an otherwise pro-Cal crowd.

In 1990 Cal had legitimate expectations of securing its first NCAA tournament bid in thirty years. The Bears came in 9-3, with their losses coming on the road at UNLV, Purdue and Arizona, and they had just crushed Oregon 95-72 two days earlier. Oregon State was 13th ranked in the country, and this figured to be the first showdown game of the season.

And then Oski came out, wobbling a bit and shaking his fist at the Oregon State bench. I remember the first thing that popped into my head.

Oski's wasted.

At halftime of a pretty close game, Oski brought out a cake - a big two-layer cake topped with elegant frosting. He brought it around the circumference of the court, and Cal students - who had no idea why Oski had a cake in the first place - roared their drunken approval.

Then he brought it to the other side of the court, where the Payton clan sat. He gestured to the Paytons, and Mama Payton took the bait. Jumping to her feet, she seemed to dare Oski to throw the cake at her. Why, I have no idea. But she did, and the small, inebriated person inside the Oski costume played along.

And then Oski threw the cake.

I have no idea who was wearing the suit that day, but whoever it was set back Oski a generation with a single toss. The cake missed Mama Payton and landed on Gary's father and his brother, a minister. All hell broke loose - the Cal section went wild. So did the Paytons. Embarrassed Cal officials offered towels, but the Paytons were having none of it. They wanted Oski's blood.

The game was an afterthought; OSU won, as expected, and Cal had no answer for Payton. Oski was suspended, and chained to a new code of conduct that forbade the use of alcohol, among other things. At his next Harmon appearance following the suspension, our favorite Bear came marching out with a halo affixed to his head, never again to be the same.

THOUGHTS ON LAST NIGHT

2007-02-16T12:00:00.000-08:00

Our keys to victory were basically met:

* Tough defense on Oregon's guards? Check. Porter and Brooks combined for 26 points but were a combined 10-25 from the floor and 6-17 from three. Ayinde had twelve boards!

* Anderson back to form? Check - Ryan was 7-12 for 18 points, including the crucial three-point play late in the game.

* Theo forcing the issue on offense - not so much. He ended with one point, but did a pretty good job on Bryce Taylor, who finished with only eleven points.

* Stay out of foul trouble? Mission accomplished, Only Randle and Christopher picked up as many as three fouls on the night. By contrast, Leunen was in foul trouble all night (courtesy of Mr. Anderson and played only 29 minutes).

Oregon really has to worry about being one-and-done in the tournament, because they're playing like a tired team. Tired teams settle for jump shots, and 17 of Oregon's 29 first-half shots were from three. That's too many, even for a talented perimeter team.

As for the Bears, they can improve to 14-12 with a win on Saturday against the Beavers. This is a *cliche alert* must-win, since the Bears figure to struggle on the LA road trip. If Cal simply takes care of business (winning the games in which they are favored), they'll finish 15-15 and probably need a first-round win at Staples to get into the NIT.

Taking care of business won't be so easy, though. Oregon State is a classic trap game, and someone has got to guard Marcel Jones this time around. We'll have a look at the game later today, along with a fond retrospective of a memorable Cal/OSU home game.

WHOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO

2007-02-15T21:28:00.000-08:00

Chris Throws Down (Associated Press/Dino Vournos)

There's your season-making upset! Patrick Christopher arrived tonight, and his 16-point performance was essentially the difference. Not to look ahead, but we can't wait to see him next year.

Cal did an amazing job at the end of both halves. A 17-0 run to close out the first? Holding the Ducks without a point for the final four and a half minutes? Pure guts from a short-handed team. This is a great win that puts the NIT back on the table.

We'll have a writeup tomorrow, along with an OSU preview. Bring on the Beavers, and let's get our first home sweep of the year. GO BEARS!!!!

PREDICTION - OREGON AT CALIFORNIA

2007-02-15T14:54:00.000-08:00

Tonight the Bears return to action at Haas (no TV!) to take on the suddenly-struggling Oregon Ducks, losers of four of their last six games. Those two wins - in Pullman and at home v ASU - have come by a total of seven points.

What's happened? Some cynics believe that nothing's happened - that the Ducks' decline is tied to a much tougher second half schedule. There's some truth to that. Oregon has had to travel to the Washington and the LA schools as part of that six-game stretch. But the tougher schedule doesn't explain why they nearly got swept at home by the Arizona schools.

Simply put, the Oregon team that tore up opposing defenses through mid-January now can't find the basket. Oregon's shooting percentage has fallen through the floor - they're averaging less than 40% over the last four games. Their defensive intensity has appeared to lag. Against Arizona, Oregon built comfortable leads and saw them whittled down as Budinger et al took the game over. Maybe this is due to a lack of depth. Oregon's not the deepest team once you get past Chamberlain Oguchi and maybe Adam Zahn, and perhaps they're feeling the effects of a long schedule.

On the other hand, maybe this is just where Oregon should be this year. In addition to the relatively soft first half, Oregon benefited from one of the better half-seasons a player has had in recent memory from Aaron Brooks. Even during their run to the #7 ranking in the nation, Oregon wasn't blowing people out. They beat Arizona by a deuce, ASU by five, UCLA by 2, and OSU by only three. And of course we remember that Cal had the Ducks on the ropes in Eugene before Brooks happened in the second half.

Dave at ATQ thinks that it's partly a matter of Brooks not saving the Ducks in these close situations. Sounds as reasonable as any explanation. Also, Oregon is a good jump-shooting team, but they need the threat of Brooks and Hairston breaking down opposing guards to make the perimeter game work. From what I've seen, there's been less of that in the last couple of weeks. If they just throw up threes on the break, and their big guns have off nights, then just about anyone in the conference can beat them. Outside of Leunen, Oregon has no equalizers inside who can create second-chance points and consistently get to the line.

Does this mean that Cal can pull the upset tonight? Yeah, it does, but a few things have to break right for the Golden Bears:

* Cal's backcourt of Ubaka and Wilkes has to bring it on defense and shut down dribble penetration. I worry a lot about what will happen when Randle is in the game.
* Ryan Anderson has to shake out of the funk that's plagued him for the last few games and recapture his stroke from three.
* Theo has to be a scorer and press the issue on offense, hopefully luring Taylor and/or Leunen into foul trouble.
* And, as always, Cal must stay out of foul trouble. A home game should help in this last respect.

I'm saying they come up a hair short, but give the Ducks another reason to be concerned about the state of their team heading into March.

Oregon 76 California 73

THE SELLING OF EUGENE

2007-02-15T09:43:00.000-08:00

Oregon, Cal's opponent tonight, is in the news for something other than basketball.

In late November, the Ducks' Athletic Director Bill Moos resigned under pressure from Oregon boosters. Phil Knight, in particular, thought Moos insufficiently quiescent to the needs of his ilk. Despite a pretty impressive record of achievement over eleven years at the helm (BCS bowl, Sweet 16), Moos was shown the door after said boosters cobbled the money together to buy out his contract.

Today Oregon at long last has found Moos' replacement. It is Pat Kilkenny. Who, you say? Why the same Pat Kilkenny who helped buy out Moos' contract in the first place.

You see, Kilkenny is one of Oregon's largest boosters.

Kilkenny has no background in sports, other than attending games, mailing checks and doing other things that boosters do (buying Playstations, lobster dinners, etc). He built his fortune in insurance, and has never held an administrative position in sport beyond perhaps coaching Little League. His surname graces the Oregon football practice fields. And, importantly, he is good pals with Papa Phil and his fellow boosters whose cash will be needed to build the replacement for ancient Mac Court.

And now he is the man who is charged with institutional oversight of recruiting and all other aspects of the Oregon athletic program. I don't even know where to start with this. I've seen plenty of schools with a "lack of institutional control." I've never before seen one orchestrate a lack of institutional control.

Oregon prides themselves as trend-setters. The uniforms and helmets, the ad campaigns, the over-the-top recruiting. They've now set a new trend, ceding operational control of their athletic program to the guys who write the checks. UO President Dave Frohmayer has abandoned all pretenses that a buffer exists between the Ducks on the field and the moneybags in the skyboxes.

Cal fans sometime grouse that we lack a dominant booster like Knight, who could make some of our problems (not the legal ones) go away. As this announcement suggests, we should be careful what we wish for. We should also thank our stars that the Haas family and other big boosters have been content to cut their checks, name their facilities, and let the program run itself.

Hats off to Dave at Addicted to Quack for a frank and honest assessment of this decision. I'll quote him:

"I know college sports hasn't been 'pure' for several decades now. But for all intents and purposes, we have an owner (Knight) who controls the pursestrings of the program and is making the personnel decisions. We are basically a professional sports franchise. Not only that, but if I were the NCAA, I'd be watching Oregon like a hawk.
"Its obvious that for everything Bill Moos did for this program, he got a raw deal. But that's neither here nor there. The fact is that Oregon hired a candidate with no experience who bought the job. Its just like being a big contributor to a presidential campaign, then getting a nice job as Ambassador to Luxembourg once that candidate enters office.
"I really hope that this works out, but I could alse see this ending really badly for the Ducks. I also think that it sets a dangerous precedent.
"At the VERY least, it is very sketchy. I don't like the smell of it one bit."

If only there were a few more like him in Eugene. God willing, this latest Oregon trend will remain confined to their campus.

PAC-10 COACHING CHANGES

2007-02-14T15:30:00.000-08:00

I can't remember an off-season with more coaching changes up and down the staffs of Pac-10 schools. Here's some of what our opponents have been up to:

Arizona
Sonny Dykes, Offensive Coordinator (replacing Mike Canales/Dana Dimel)

Here comes the Air Raid - Dykes assisted Mike Leach at Texas Tech and will install an offense that still makes Cal fans cringe. The good news is that defenses have caught up to the Tech scheme - shooting through the monster splits taken by the offensive line, and bringing pressure to force bad decisions by the QB. It's not at all clear that Arizona has the personnel to run this offense, either - Willie Tuitama is a good athlete with a bad concussion problem, and the Wildcat offensive line was the worst part of their team last year. Also, Willie is most dangerous in run/pass options and isn't known for the type of surgical accuracy on short and intermediate routes demanded by the Air Raid. Still, I suppose that anything is an improvement over Mike Canales, who is now coaching the receivers at South Florida. Ouch.

Stoops has other vacancies on his staff that remain unfilled.

Arizona State
Dennis Erickson, Head Coach (replacing Dirk Koetter)
Rich Olson, Offensive Coordinator (replacing Roy Wittke)
Craig Bray, Defensive Coordinator (replacing Bill Miller)

I don't think Dennis Erickson is going to punt the ball nearly as much as Dirk. For all his faults, Erickson goes for the jugular and is sure to clash more frequently with the lunatic in Tucson. We have visions of a smackdown before the opening kick of the Centennial Cup. DE has already shown that he will recruit nationally, and we're of course waiting breathlessly for ASU's first points in the annual competition for the Fullmer Cup.

Olson wasn't a terribly popular OC at Miami, where fans criticized his lack of imagination and his inability to work more effectively with QB Kyle Wright. Gotta take that with a grain of salt, though, since the entire Hurricane program melted down last year. He's got a great resume filled with college and NFL experience, and he's one of Erickson's closest confidantes. Bray is another Erickson crony, having served as his DC and secondary coach at OSU before short stints as secondary coach at Colorado and, most recently, Minnesota. I don't know much about his philosophy; all I know is that those last two teams had pretty lousy secondaries. The "hire your buddies" approach can work well, but I wonder whether it's the right call for this ASU program.

Oregon
Chip Kelly, Offensive Coordinator (replacing Gary Crowton)

Kelly was at New Hampshire for fourteen years, which seems like an awful long time to be at a D-1AA program. Why wasn't he snatched up before this? A very different type of hire than bringing a D-1A head coach in, as they did with Crowton. And then you think about the hire, and you read about Kelly's record and philosophy, and it begins to make some sense. Oregon looked like slaves to the shotgun spread last year, which magnified their shortcomings at the QB position. Dennis Dixon ain't Vince Young, and the Ducks should give him and Leaf less to do and occasionally put a fullback in front of Stewart. Kelly's reputation suggests that he'll stop trying to force things and get the ball into Jonathan Stewart's hands on a more regular basis. Oregon can keep their silly QB rotation, as long as Mr. Stewart gets thirty plus touches per game.

Stanford
Jim Harbaugh, Head Coach (replacing Walt Harris)
David Shaw, Offensive Coordinator (replacing Walt Harris)
Scott Shafer, Defensive Coordinator (replacing AJ Christoff)

Sorry, but the burden of proof is on the twenty-nine remaining Stanford fans to explain why guys who ran a glorified high school program can step up to the Pac-10 level. Shaw may have the title OC, but at USD he was the passing game coordinator and deferred to Harbaugh on big-picture scheme issues. Some Card fans have bravely pointed to USD's success on offense, but that was due to the Toreros having Jason Johnson, an athletic freak at QB who was just too much for opposing defenses. Harbaugh brought other USD assistants with him, whom I'm too bored to mention.

On the other side of the ball, Harbaugh appears to have made a good hire in getting Scott Shafer to run the defense. As the linked article suggests, Shafer has done a good job at Western Michigan, transforming one of the nation's worst defenses into one of its best. Shafer's an upgrade from Christoff, who never got the most out of some decent defensive talent.

UCLA
Jay Norvell, Offensive Coordinator (replacing Jim Svoboda)

No change of scheme here - Norvell ran the West Coast Offense under Bill Callahan at Nebraska. We don't like the WCO and we're grateful that Tedford doesn't either. It relies on precise timing and a very smart quarterback who can make accurate reads - two things in shorter supply at the college level v the pro game. Perhaps Ben Olson can do more with the scheme than his predecessors. Bruins fans should hope that Dorrell/Norvell won't be slaves to the WCO, and will allow Olson to take seven-step drops and throw the fucking ball deep. If not, they're wasting the special talent they return at QB. As for Norvell himself, Husker fans were hardly crushed to see him go.

BN's already on the case.

USC
Steve Sarkisian, Offensive Coordinator (replacing Lane Kiffin)

Meet the new boss(es) - same as the old boss? Sarkisian will handle play-calling, and Carroll also brings in thirty-something John Morton from the New Orleans Saints to serve as passing game coordinator. Morton knows Sarkisian from their time together with the Raiders, so any fears about overlapping responsibilities should be mitigated by their friendship. No big change here either, other than Trojans fans will have someone new to blame when things don't go perfectly. Although Kiffin was the recruiting coordinator, he was not always the most popular coach on the Trojan staff with players. Sarkisian is well-liked, which could be important given the number of five-star egos in that locker room.

THE LONGEST NIGHT

2007-02-13T23:15:00.000-08:00

We, like the team we love, have frankly run out of gas with respect to this basketball season. We'll have another look at the Ducks before tip-off Thursday night at Haas - their recent stretch has been abysmal, which sparks hopes of a season-making upset. But there's not that much to talk about with respect to Cal - I mean, there's no mystery as to why a shorthanded team hits the wall at halftime every night. If there's a compelling subplot we've missed let us know.

In the meantime, Oregon's visit to Berkeley gives us a chance to reminisce about the most epic battle in the long rivalry between the Bears and Ducks. No, not last year's Pac-10 tournament semifinal, which was long and mostly frustrating, despite the eventual win (worst officiated tourney game I've ever seen). No, not the Amit Tamir game in Berkeley when Cal dropped the Lukes 107-103 in double OT. I'm referring to a game that happened thirty years ago, in the middle of historic dry periods for California basketball. I'm referring the longest game in Pac-10 conference history.

On February 10, 1977 about 4000 fans settled into their seats at Harmon Gym for what figured to be an uneventful match-up between Cal and Oregon. The Bears were 6-13 overall and just 1-6 in conference; the Ducks had blown them out by 26 points in Eugene just five days earlier. Dick Edwards (left), Cal's coach, would be gone in fourteen months - yet another in the string of complete coaching disappointments since the surprise retirement of Pete Newell in 1960.

The names on Cal's roster will not be featured in our Sweet Sixteen countdown, though point guard Gene Ransom was certainly a contender. The other Bears - senior forward Ray Murry, sophomore center Tom Schneiderjohn and sophomore off-guard John Caselli, were largely journeymen, though Murry did explode in the season's last game for 41 points in a win over Stanford. Freshman forward Doug True would evolve into one of Cal's all-time leading scorers, but in his first varsity year he mostly supplied rebounding support.

Oregon, on the other hand, had a pretty good team. The Ducks were led by their best player in years in senior forward Greg Ballard. Ballard (right) would go on to be drafted #4 overall in that summer's NBA draft by the Washington Bullets, and was a key reserve as a rookie on the Bullets' NBA championship team. He was a bit of a one-man show - other Duck starters included the inaptly named shot-blocking center Kelvin Small and a guy named Ernie Kent. The Ducks were led by fiery Dick Harter, who would win Pac-8 Coach of the Year at the end of the year for leading the Ducks to a 19-10 record despite the graduation of All-America guard Ron Lee.

Cal might have been 1-6, but the Ducks limped into Berkeley having lost four of their last six, including an inexplicable home loss to WSU and a sweep at the hands of the hated Beavers. So Bear fans could be excused for expecting an upset. It's certain that none of them expected a five-overtime game that lasted three hours and 15 minutes (without the benefit of TV timeouts).

The numbers from that night are amazing: Ransom played the entire game until he fouled out with 1:30 left in the final overtime, and scored 36 points in his 63.5 minutes. He shot 19 free throws, and the Bears as a team shot 50 over the course of the evening. For his part, Ballard led all scorers with 41 points in 63 minutes of play. Ten players - five from each side - fouled out before the final buzzer sounded. There were many occasions where the game could have ended, but fate conspired to extend play to yet another extra period. At the end of the third OT, Cal held a four-point lead with twenty seconds to play. Two quick Duck baskets, sandwiched around missed free throws, kept the proceedings going. In the next period, Ransom hit two free throws to tie the score with about ten seconds to play.

As the teams played on, points were hard to come by. The teams scored six points apiece in the 3rd overtime, and then struggled for four a side in the 4th. Suddenly Cal caught fire in the 5th OT, behind scoring from Caselli and reserve Jim Griffith, while the Ducks' legs betrayed them. The final was 107-102, and Cal had scored a most memorable upset.

After the game, Ransom was asked how it felt to win such an amazing contest. Speaking for all involved, Cal's point guard stated that he just wanted to go home and jump in bed. The game is the longest in California history (its closest competition is a four-overtime game with Iowa during the Newell era), and the longest in the history of the Pac-10. Given Cal's injury situation, let's pray that we avoid a repeat on Thursday night.

THE SWEET SIXTEEN - #9 - RUSS CRITCHFIELD

2007-02-13T08:50:00.000-08:00

#9 - RUSS CRITCHFIELD, GUARD (1966-1968)
Those of you who have tuned in to FSN's coverage of Cal basketball this year have heard the name Russ Critchfield, for he is Cal's nominee for induction in the Pac-10's Hall of Fame for 2007. He's also #9 on our countdown of Cal's greatest basketball players. Generously listed at 5'10", Critchfield was not a basketball prototype in any era. He was, however, a shooter - one of the two greatest (along with Joe Shipp) in California history.

The Salinas-born Critchfield broke into the starting lineup as a sophomore, playing for a team that would go 9-16 under the perennially disappointing Rene Herrerias. He announced his presence in the first round of the American Legion Tournament in Seattle, which was held right before New Year's 1966. Cal drew Texas and the Bears, 3-5 to that point on the season, figured to struggle. Critchfield, however, shocked the Longhorns and the assembled media by hitting for 36 points and leading Cal to a 82-77 win. He finished that year with 15.5 ppg, and became locally famous for the incredible range on his jump shot.

As a junior Critchfield blossomed into one of the most dangerous guards in the country, averaging 21.0 ppg and leading the Bears to a 15-10 overall record. He was named an honorable mention All-America by both the Associated Press and UPI, a 2nd team AA by Converse (which picked teams in those days) and a 1st team AAWU selection. He was also selected to represent his country at the World University Games in Tokyo - on a squad that included Butch Beard and Wes Unseld, Critchfield averaged 11.3 ppg in seven contests and helped Team USA bring home a gold medal.

There was more of the same his senior year (22.0 ppg), and a first-team All-America selection by the Helms Foundation, but the Bears could do not better than 15-9 and 4th in the AAWU. Critchfield capped his college career by hitting for 36 points in a home defeat of Oregon that left Harmon fans wishing for an extra year of eligibility (particularly true given the talent on Cal's freshman team that year, including Jackie Ridgle and Charlie Johnson).

Critchfield had bad timing at Cal - in his sophomore and junior seasons he played alongside talented Charlie Perkins in the back court, but the Bears were thin up front. In 1967-68, Perkins was replaced by sophomore Trent Gaines, and Bob Presley blossomed into a very nice center. Never during Critchfield's career did Herrerias put all the pieces in place to make a run at UCLA (or at least finish second in the conference).

After college Russ played for one year for the Oakland Oaks of the ABA, averaging about four points per game in a reserve role. That team won the ABA championship and featured an amazing assortment of talent - Rick Barry, Doug Moe, Gary Bradds and Larry Brown, among others. Critchfield got his masters (St. Mary's) and became a coach, assisting Dick Kuchen at Cal and Lynn Nance at Washington. When Kuchen was fired he was thought to be a candidate for the head job in Berkeley, but Dave Maggard recruited Lou Campanelli from James Madison. Today he is the head basketball coach at one of Cal's favorite football recruiting mills - Butte JC in Oroville.

ON THE BRINK

2007-02-12T15:56:00.000-08:00

To clarify, it's not really a season on the brink, since most of us have resigned ourselves to a sub-.500 regular season. 2007 has played out according to our worst fears - the Bears have run out of gas in the second half of the season, just as they've tired in the second half of games all season long.

I'm referring more to the collective psyche of our basketball program. After Saturday's loss to Wazzu, in which the Bears took the air out of the basketball and scored a grand total of 46 points, Ayinde Ubaka went public with frustration over the game plan. That led to a dressing-down by Braun outside the locker room.

Was Ayinde right? Rusty Simmons apparently thought so, and went out of his way to stress the fact that Cal's few successful possessions came in the transition game. As for us - well, we were surprised by Ben's game plan. The Cougars' twin liabilities are a relative lack of athleticism and a definite lack of quality depth. Their strengths are half-court offense and suffocating defense. Cal has become an ordinary defensive squad that is small but pretty athletic. Why Braun would think that Cal could out-execute WSU in the half court is beyond me.

But regardless of what we or you might think of the game plan, it's clear that the players (and probably Ben himself) are frustrated by what's gone on over the past two-plus weeks. Ubaka is watching his last chance at post-season play evaporate before his eyes. Omar Wilkes can't get a consistent flow going on offense. The freshmen are, by this time, worn out. When Hardin went down, we wrote that we would judge this team primarily by how hard it plays through the end of the season. By that measure, they deserve a solid B for the season. What is disconcerting about the WSU game is that it showed the first cracks to Cal's mental toughness - not on the court, where Cal battled until the end, but off the court for the benefit of the local media.

Regardless of the odds, the Bears have got to keep it together and exit the 2007 season on their own feet. If they need extra motivation, they should consider the rather precarious position of their head coach. As long as the team puts out and stays competitive, everyone agrees that this year is a mulligan for Braun, and that 2008 will be the real test. But if the team shows further signs of internal unrest, or the efforts flags in a noticeable way, I think all bets are off.

Sandy Barbour wants a Top-10 basketball program, period. She expects California to contend for and win conference championships; to make the Sweet 16 more than once a decade; to make a Final Four. So do most of us, and many Cal fans doubt that Ben Braun is capable of these sorts of results. I'm not saying that Sandy is looking for an excuse to make a change this off-season. I'm also not saying that Ben should give her one.

A MAP OF RECRUITING (PART 2)

2007-02-12T12:16:00.000-08:00

SoCal Oski made a point on one of the comment boards that got me thinking about where Cal sits among the "traditional powers" of college football recruiting.

Cal has consciously focused its recruiting on two main areas: Greater Los Angeles, and the Bay Area. This year's class is heavily weighted toward Los Angeles, but the Bears also picked up nine out-of-state commitments (10 if you include New York-born Nyan Boateng). Does this indicate a shift in Cal's recruiting philosophy? If so, is this a good idea? Will the Bears increasingly lock horns with Big 12 and SEC schools for talent?

The shift, if you can call it that, occurred in 2005, when Cal became more aggressive in recruiting outside California. That year the Bears recruited 14 such players, up from 1 in 2003 and 6 in 2004. ('Recruited' is defined as pursuing a player enough to have a listed scholarship offer - even if some of those reported offers were ultimately rescinded). Unsurprisingly, 2005 was the year after Cal's breakout 10-2 season that saw them in the Top 10 for most of the season; recruits who received letters and phone calls from Cal coaches presumably were more responsive after seeing the Bears on TV and reading the glowing press about Tedford.

In 2006 Cal recruited 16 guys outside of California, and this year the number hit 29. Time will tell, but I don't believe he jump in 2007 is due to any further change in philosophy. If anything, it's the byproduct of a relatively poor year for in-state talent, and Cal's need to recruit a relatively large class.

These out-of-state numbers include kids from traditional Pac-10 recruiting markets (which we'll define as Colorado and everything west of there). After years of being an afterthought in these states, Cal is now usually a player with top-rated recruits from these markets, and we land our fair share (Guarnero, Riley, Felder, Jones, Pimentel, Jordan, several Hawaiians). It has helped that a number of the local programs have been in some disarray (UW, Colorado) during this time.

Another change is that Cal is now pursuing more kids outside the Pac-10's 'home turf.' This year Cal recruited 13 kids from east of the Rockies, more than the total number of such players Tedford had recruited in his previous five seasons. JT lobbed offers to kids in Missouri, Georgia, New Jersey, Illinois, Texas, Arkansas and Virginia; and Tedford has already offered receiver Devier Posey (LaSalle HS, Cincinnati) for next year's class.

How much of this is Dunbar's influence is hard to guess. Northwestern recruits nationally - sort of like Stanford on a smaller scale - so perhaps his departure will bring the numbers back down. I don't think so, however. Tedford has built a program that is nationally recognized for offensive production, and I suspect that fact gets him in the door with lots of kids.

So the question remains - if a shift has indeed happened, is it a good thing? The cautionary tale with respect to national recruiting is our old friend Bruce Snyder. After the Sun Devils came within a whisker of the MNC in 1996, Snyder decided that ASU was a national program and shifted his recruiting focus to Texas, the Midwest, the Deep South - basically everywhere but Arizona. You saw the results, and ASU football has never been the same since.

JT won't do that. From the start, he has dedicated himself to repairing relationships with Bay Area programs that had frayed under previous leadership. He has also established Cal in Los Angeles and Long Beach by bringing in decorated recruits like DeSean, Mebane, Hagan and others. So I think the national recruiting that Cal does, limited as it is, will be a net positive for the program.

So which states outside the Pac-10 (CA, WA, OR, AZ) look to be important in the Class of 2008?

Hawai'i. Ken Delgado has now recruited five players (not including UH transfer Ma'afala) from the Aloha State to Berkeley in the past three years (he recruited Eselu, although he's a tight end). This is, on the whole, a very worthwhile investment of the program's dollars. Hawai'i produces more D-1A prospects per capita than most states, particularly along the offensive and defensive line. On the downside, you sometimes have to deal with severe bouts of homesickness - Berkeley ain't Oahu - but having a base of islander players can mitigate that somewhat.

Texas. New LB coach Kenwick Thompson was instrumental in convincing Alex Cook to turn down Arkansas and come to Cal. Thompson is a native of Houston and coached for years at Texas Southern. That's not exactly UT or A&M, but it does mean he brings new relationships with Texas HS coaches to the Cal program.

Utah. A pretty good football state, but Cal hasn't had much success here. Nu'u Tafisi grew up in SLC, but Cal recruited him out of Mt. San Antonio JC. In 2005 Cal missed on OT Matt Reynolds (BYU); in 2006 RB Stanley Havili went to USC. The reason I list Utah is that Cal could be in the mix for at least two kids from the Beehive State in 2008. RB Sausan Shakerin lists the Bears with BYU, Colorado, Florida, Oregon and Utah - he's a big (6'3") back who has said he wants to go out of state to play CFB. CB Cameron Comer (Springville HS) has already visited Cal, which suggests the Bears are interested in his services.

But still there are bread-and-butter California programs that should continue to be important for the Golden Bears in years to come. Here's a list of ten such programs:

Dorsey (Los Angeles) - A traditionally strong program, the Bears will have two Dorsey alums on next year's roster (Robert Mullins and Keith Browner).

Long Beach Poly - Duh. The Jackrabbits send loads of kids to D-1A programs; this year Cal went 0-2 on LBP players (Warren and Rowe) but it's clear that JT has reasonably good links there.

Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks) - The alma mater of Sam DeMartinis, ND sends lots of kids to D-1A program though few have chosen Cal in recent years. Next year's class includes highly touted QB Dayne Crist and LB Anthony McDonald.

Crenshaw (Compton) - Crenshaw has become a go-to school for Cal - in addition to being Daymeion Hughes' alma mater, the Bears picked up Darian Hagan and RJ Garrett from 'Shaw in 2006. They're always loaded - next year's star is WR Kemonte Bateman, who will be recruited nationally.

Edison (Fresno) - Under DB coach JD Williams, Edison was a major pipeline for secondary talent (Amadi, Hicks, Peele). Williams is now in Seattle, but Cal needs to maintain close ties with one of the premier programs in the Central Valley.

Berkeley - The arrival of McClymonds coach and friend of the program Alonzo Carter makes Berkeley a potentially important school down the road.

McClymonds (Oakland) - Who knows what will become of the program after Carter's departure, but this has historically been the most important HS program in the Bay Area for Cal (Kyle Reed, Derrick Hill, etc).

Monte Vista (Danville) - Never hurts to be the alma mater of la famiglia Tedford. MVHS is usually good for one or two D-1A prospects per year. Next year it's QB Drew McAllister.

Grant Union (Sacramento) - Strong program that sent Worrell Williams to Cal; next year they have RB Marselius Williams coming out.

Butte JC (Oroville) - Can't argue with a Juco that has produced Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Cross, and now Skylar Curran. All three were under-recruited, and all three were pretty quick Cal commits. FYI, Cal's first commit for 2008 should be OT Tyler Rigsbee (Pleasant Valley HS - Chico), whose father happens to be the AD at Butte.

PREDICTION - CALIFORNIA AT WASHINGTON STATE

2007-02-10T08:30:00.000-08:00

Well, Cal isn't going to win this game - I think we all can agree on that point. Even if WSU wasn't playing its best basketball of the year, and even if Cal's young players weren't in late-season free fall, we'd still have to deal with Friel Court. Cal has won five of the last six contests with the Cougs in Pullman, but that recent success can't wipe the awful memories from my mind. From 1991 to 2000 Cal had some pretty good teams, and Wazzu just plain sucked. Still, the Bears lost eight times during that decade on the Palouse, including the horrifying 89-87 loss in 1997 when Ed Gray broke his foot and was lost for the season.

Friel Court - the 2/3 filled arena, the soft blond (almost white) wood on the floor, and the slightly fuzzy camera work that suggested a game broadcast from Brazil. George Raveling once said of Pullman, "it's not the end of the earth, but you can see if from there." This has historically been a tough road trip for not only Cal, but Arizona as well, who has lost some truly inexplicable games on the Palouse in recent years.

This year WSU's success is easy enough to explain. They get after shooters and clog the passing lanes. On offense they are surgically efficient, led by Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver, who presents a matchup problem for most two guards. Cal has no answer for Weaver, and the Cougars are efficient enough to translate a single mismatch into consistent offensive flow all game long.

And then there's Friel Court. The good news is that WSU isn't a blow-you-out team, and Cal should be able to hang around and hope for off nights from the Cougars' perimeter shooters. Not likely, but it's a puncher's chance.

Washington State 66 California 58

A MAP OF 2007 RECRUITING

2007-02-09T16:32:00.000-08:00

Map GameDay is a fun site that uses Google's mapping software, tailored to the CFB fan. You can select maps of university cities, complete with tags for the stadium, local points of interest, lodging, entertainment, etc. For those inclined to make the Colorado State roadie, here's a map of majestic Fort Collins.

MGD has also done a nice job with 2007 recruiting, giving users an interface that allows you to see the hometowns of recruits for an individual school or conference. To save you the hassle, here are the links to the '07 classes for Pac-10 schools: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State. Here's the entire Pac-10 conference in one tidy package.

As you can see from the links, Stanford is the only conference school that truly recruits on a national basis; this is one reason Cal rarely goes head to head with the Cardinal for a player. Everyone else stays pretty close to home, with the exception of USC's 5-star raids and a new national flavor to Arizona State's recruiting under Dennis Erickson.

What's really interesting is the low number of high D-1A prospects from the Bay Area this year. According to MGD, Bay Area schools sent only 24 3-star and above players to BCS conference teams this year and 10 of them were Jucos. The breakdown of where they went is both interesting and reassuring to Cal fans. The names are segregated by Scout.com star ratings; those players offered by Cal are in bold type.

****
Alesana Alesana, OT (CCSF) Kansas State
Jahvid Best
Devin Bishop
Mike Calvin
Brandon Carswell, WR (Milpitas HS) USC
Alex Lagemann
Zach Lee, QB (CCSF) Nebraska
Kenny O'Neal, WR (CCSF) Tennessee
Josh Riddell, QB (Foothill JC) Mississippi State
Steve Sloan, LB (Archbishop Mitty HS, San Jose) UCLA
Austin Stafford, LB (Hayward HS) Nebraska
Matt Summers-Gavin
Joseph Townsend, DT (Foothill JC b/w Valley Christian HS, San Jose) Nebraska

***
Tonio Celotto, DL (Piedmont HS) Oregon
Mike Cole, OL (Foothill JC) Oregon State
Durrell Clark-James, CB (CCSF) Minnesota
Rhett Ellison, TE (St. Francis, Mountain View) USC
Willie Griffin, RB (McClymonds HS, Oakland) Washington
Roy Helu, FB (San Ramon Valley HS - Danville) Nebraska
Mike Marcisz, OT (Granada HS - Livermore) Arizona State
Kevin Lopina, QB (De La Salle HS) Washington State
Ako Poti, OT (CCSF) Penn State
De'Shon Sanders, CB (CCSF) Texas Tech
Logan Uu, LB (Laney JC) Minnesota

Several things from this - we only offered seven Bay Area players from this list and landed five. That's pretty impressive. Also, Oregon got but one guy (who Cal didn't offer). That's in part because it was a down year for Bay Area talent, but it's also because Cal has solidified its control of a region that used to serve as the Ducks' backyard: the Ducks offered MSG, Best, Calvin and Lagemann. Since 2004, when Oregon landed the highly-touted De La Salle triplets (Colvin, Glasper and Bates), the Ducks have not landed a single Bay Area recruit who was offered by both Oregon and Cal. The LA schools are a different story, but Cal is still holding its own in head-to-head battles with both UCLA and USC. The Trojans get Carswell and Josh Tatum ('06), Cal gets Derrick Hill, Jahvid Best and MSG.

You can also select states and see which D-1A players they produced this year (and where they're going). Alaska? Exactly one D-1A prospect, who's heading to Oklahoma State. Another fun fact: Only 22% of California players signed with a California school. Here's the California map.

Hope you enjoy the site; a mercifully brief WSU hoops preview coming tomorrow.

ST. MICHAEL OF TUCSON

2007-02-09T10:00:00.000-08:00

(photo: Tucson Citizen)

In the unlikely event you're ever asked to define the word 'disingenuous,' I suggest you refer to these comments by Mike Stoops. Stoops called out Oregon by name and implied that other Pac-10 programs engaged in "negative recruiting." Hmmm, when was the last time a conference coach played the negative card against his rivals? That's right, the year was 2002 and the coach was Rick Neuheisel, himself a paragon of virtue and maturity. Slick Rick and Mad Mike are pots of the same color, indeed.

Stoops even implies that Oregon is desperate for recruits since the Cats beat them 37-10 in Eugene last season. I can just see Phil Knight on his emerald throne barking orders at his swooshed underlings: "Top 10 class? Fine, but just be sure that you steal some of Arizona's recruits!" Laughable. The author suggests that Stoops is also angry at Tedford, though he never directly refers to Cal.

Negative recruiting? I think Mike's done enough of that himself by losing six coaches this offseason. That's probably Bellotti's fault, too. But the piece de resistance is this quote, which actually came out of Mike Stoops' mouth:

"Your character and what you stand for is way, way more important. If you don't have a conscience, you are not going to last at this level of competition.''

Call him St. Michael, the patron saint of clean living and honest recruiting. We'll remember this quote, Your Holiness, when the NCAA fixes the probation shackles to your pudgy wrists. Or on the occasion of your next DUI arrest - whichever comes first. Have fun with your new coaching staff.

WASHINGTON 79 CALIFORNIA 71

2007-02-08T19:46:00.000-08:00

Down and out? (AP/Ted Warren)

I have no idea how Cal only lost this game by eight points (and how it was a two-point game with five minutes to play).

* Cal shot 45% to Washington's 55%. Ryan Anderson was MIA for much of the game before hitting some late shots. Cal missed open shot after open shot.
* The Bears got to the free throw line seven times in forty minutes. Washington shot 24, making 18.
* Speaking of home cooking, the refs let Jon Brockman hand-check and push Anderson all over the floor. On the offensive end, he led with his elbow time after time and was only called for it once. That said, Brockman played an unbelievable game. He took the game over towards the end.
* The charging call on Theo towards the end of the game was the worst call in a big situation I've seen this year.
* Cal got beat on the glass 34-21, though the Bears limited UW to six offensive boards.
* It's beyond me what Ben Braun was doing with Anderson, who was guarded by Brockman. Sticking Ryan in the post allowed Brockman to stay in the paint and collect almost every defensive board. Why not put him on his horse by running Anderson on the baseline?
* While I'm piling on Ben, why did Randle start the second half after playing poorly in the first? That five minute stretch before Ayinde came back was the difference in the ballgame. I know Ayinde isn't 100%, but this was a must-win game and you knew Washington was going to crank it up defensively to start the half.
* The NIT is now a reach goal.

PREVIEW & PREDICTION - CALIFORNIA AT WASHINGTON

2007-02-08T12:44:00.000-08:00

The Golden Bears travel to Seattle tonight to take on the Pac-10's enigma, the Washington Huskies. The Bears surprised the Huskies in overtime at Haas 77-69; can they repeat that magic in a building where Washington has lost only once this season?

In the first matchup...
Cal dominated a much taller Husky team inside, pulling down 47 rebounds and scoring countless second-chance baskets. Interestingly, the Bears had a poor shooting night, averaging only 38% from the floor and 24% from three - well below their season averages. Ryan Anderson was only 5-16 and Omar Wilkes was 5-14 for Cal. The UW game marked the emergence of Theo Robertson, who shook off a disappointing start to the season to add 14 points and 8 boards.

What's changed
Following a horrible blowout loss to WSU at Friel Court, UW went on a mini-run, sweeping the Oregon schools at home and beating ASU in Tempe. Then came a trip to the McKale Center, where struggling Arizona (right) wiped the floor with the Dawgs 84-54. Repeating a theme that has plagued the Huskies all season long, the Cats shot 57% from the field in the victory. Even in the win over Oregon, the Ducks shot 54% (they lost due to turnovers and a 26-13 differential at the foul line). These Huskies simply don't defend well, and they must run and score bunches of points to win games.

Lorenzo Romar has shuffled his lineup since our first meeting, sending heralded freshman Spencer Hawes to the bench (he still averages about 28 minutes a game). Hawes has been slowed by the flu and an ankle sprain, which may explain Romar's move. There may be something else at work, though. Despite good numbers (14.6 ppg), Hawes has occasionally struggled to get into a rhythm on offense, and he hasn't provided the type of help on the glass that Washington expected. The Seattle Times and Post-Intelligencer both ran fairly unflattering columns today comparing Hawes with Cal's Anderson.

Romar suggested in today's paper that he might switch up his starting lineup; this could indicate that Hawes will reclaim his starting role from sophomore Artem Wallace. The rest of the starting five figures to be Jon Brockman and Phil Nelson in the front court, with Justin Dentmon and Ryan Appleby at guard. Quincy Pondexter (left), who lit it up for the Huskies in non-conference play, has been reduced to coming off the bench (he's averaging twenty minutes in a relief role).

Keys to the Game
- Home cooking. If Cal decides to crash the boards hard on offense, could they fall into foul trouble? Three Bears - Robertson, Eric Vierneisel and Taylor Harrison - finished the first UW game with four fouls. Cal shot 30 free throws to UW's 25. Vierneisel should return, but I haven't seen anything confirming that fact; in any event, Cal is paper thin and can't afford to have their big guns in foul trouble.
- Perimeter shooting. Cal shot poorly in the first game, and will need a much better performance tonight to get the W.
- Rebounding. I don't expect a repeat of 47-36, but Cal needs to control the defensive glass and limit second-chance points for Brockman, in particular.
- Mental toughness. Do the Huskies have it? If they lose this game, UW would need to win the Pac-10 tournament to have a chance at the NCAAs. Some Husky fans have thrown in the towel; others are sniping at the team's performance, especially on the defensive end. UW is a very young team, and it's an open question how freshmen and sophomores will respond to the drama swirling around their program.

Washington has lost only once at home (to Arizona), and it's a tall order to expect Cal to grab #2. I do expect the Bears to keep it close, but the combination of a motivated Husky team with the home court advantage should help Washington eke one out. Let's hope the Tightwad Hill track record of lousy predictions continues...

Washington 79 California 75

RECRUITING RECAP - WHAT'S IT ALL MEAN?

2007-02-08T10:30:00.000-08:00

As we summarized yesterday, Cal signed 26 new football players to letters of intent yesterday. (We forgot Florida transfer Nyan Boateng, who we'll profile at a later date) National experts seem to think Cal did pretty well; that's great, but we don't put much faith in recruiting rankings. Here are some thoughts on the Class of '07:

Need
As we've noted in our early depth charts, Cal returns an awful lot next year, especially on offense. There are no gaping holes on offense, though Cal would perhaps welcome an offensive line backup or two. Defense is another question. The Bears badly need immediate contributors at defensive end, given that Philip Mbakogu looks very unlikely to return to the team. They could also use backup depth in the defensive backfield.

You would have to say that this class addresses areas of need. To nitpick, it would have been nice to find a JC defensive end who could step in and play immediately. Alex Cook apparently doesn't have the size Delgado wants at that position, so he will contend for time at SLB. Conte was, in our view, a huge get since he will be the "tall corner" of the future. Tedford's comments at his press conference indicated a willingness to let freshmen compete for playing time, so we may see fewer blueshirts in this class.

Balance
This is the most often-overlooked aspect of a recruiting class. Most teams get this right, but there are notable exceptions. Rick Neuheisel's classes at Washington were filled with lots of backs and receivers, but too few linemen on either side of the ball. The Huskies paid for this oversight in subsequent seasons as opponents pushed them all over the field.

USC doesn't care too much about balance. They will stockpile the best recruits regardless of need and hold Darwinian practice competitions to determine the starter. Trojan fans can say that Joe McKnight and Marc Tyler are different sorts of backs - they may well be, but last I checked SC only had one tailback position. Lynch and Forsett were different, too, but only one of them got the ball each down.

Stockpiling recruits made lots of sense in the days before scholarship limits. Bear Bryant perfected the art at Alabama, and had a depth chart full of decorated stars who rarely saw the field. He just wanted to ensure those stars didn't start at Auburn or LSU. But today, if you put a HS All-American third on your depth chart you lose something - you lose a scholarship that might have gone to a player with a better chance of contributing. I'm not knocking SC's class at all - it looks great and they should continue to be the big dog in the Pac-10. I am questioning Carroll's overall philosophy when it comes to scholarship balance. It's fine to say that CJ Gable is going to switch to defense - but is he going to be a good DB? Will he respond to the position switch? What does that do to team chemistry?

Cal's class is extremely balanced: 1 QB, 2 TB, 1 FB, 2 WR, 2 TE, 5 OL, 4 DE, 4 LB, 3 DB, 1 P. The only position where Cal scored a donut was defensive tackle. This was in part intentional, since Cal didn't push too hard for many players at the position. But taken in the context of the entire team - where we return a starting DT in Malele and have capable young people in Costanzo and Hill - it's not too big of a concern.

Misses
Fans tend to focus on misses, which can corrupt their vision of a class. Everyone loses players - well, everyone except USC. Misses really hurt when the player in question is demonstrably superior to any "replacements" that are signed, or the team can't find anyone to fill a position of need. Cal doesn't have any glaring misses this year, with the possible exceptions of Brian Price and Matthew Masifilo - well-regarded defensive tackles who chose UCLA and Stanford, respectively.

Others have focused on Akeem Ayers (UCLA) and Kenny Rowe (Oregon); well, I'll reserve judgment since I believe Scott Smith could wind up being better than either of them. At running back, it might have been terrific to get Marc Tyler (we never had a shot), but I'm more than happy with Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen. What does Tyler's extra star mean? Probably not much, given recent history. How about Malcolm Smith at WLB? Is he a lot better than Mullins or Holt? Is he better at all? Time will tell.

Other Trivia About the Class
* Highest number of out-of-state recruits (nine) during the Tedford era.
* No academic issues that we are aware of. This class is full of good students (as noted in our capsule profiles yesterday)
* First class since '04 without a Pacific Northwest player. More Hawaiians (three) than any other Tedford class (any Cal class, I believe).
* No one seems to have caught this, but there are only five Bay Area players out of 25, an amazingly low number.
* Tedford mentioned a number of players who could make an immediate contribution. In addition to the Jucos, he named Best, Vereen, Smith and Jordan as guys who could play immediately. He also noted that the OL class would have a chance to "come in and show what they can do."

CLASS OF 2007 - DBs AND SPECIALISTS

2007-02-07T14:00:00.000-08:00

Sean Cattouse (Safety - Hubbard HS, Chicago)
6'3"/190
Reported offers: Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Kansas State, NIU, Mississippi State

- He's a converted QB. We love converted quarterbacks because they tend to fly beneath the recruiting radar.
- Cattouse has a big frame (6'3") and is a workout warrior, training with the same guy who works with Luol Deng and other members of the Bulls. Can teach his teammates Pilates.
- Overshadowed in HS by All-America RB Robert Hughes, who chose Notre Dame over virtually every program.
- The Chicago Sun-Times reported that Cattouse is the first Chicagoland football player to attend Cal on a scholarship. I can't think of one off-hand - can anyone?

D.J. Campbell (Corner - Cheyenne HS, Las Vegas)
6'0"/180/4.48
Reported Offers: Arizona State

- Played safety his senior year after starting at corner in both his sophomore and junior years. Recorded 61 tackles, 8 interceptions (four returned for TD), 2 forced fumbles and 3 recoveries.
- Like Cattouse, Campbell started at QB (and also punted). Projects as a college corner.
- Has a 39-inch vertical leap
- Named to the Nevada 4A all-state team as a starting DB.
- HS mascot was the "Desert Shields." From all accounts Campbell was a bit of a one-man show for his school, but he still led them to a finish as league runner-up.

Chris Conte (Corner - Loyola HS, Los Angeles)
6'3"/180
Reported offers: UCLA
- Listed as a Bruin commit in this morning's LA Times. All through Conte's de-commit and the run-up to LOI day, Cal coaches were reasonably confident that he would come to Berkeley.
- Played both ways for Loyola, but earned highest marks for his work at cornerback. Despite postings that he would definitely switch to safety, he probably projects at corner at the collegiate level (though he could make a fine FS).
- Stands 6'3" or 6'4" depending on which report you read, which would make him a good matchup with taller receivers in the conference.
- Made a key interception in Loyola's 14-0 upset of Mater Dei in the Division 1 semifinals in 2005. Loyola went on to win the CIF title.

Bryan Anger (Punter - Camarillo Adolfo HS)
6'4"/190/4.7
Reported offers: LSU, Clemson, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Boise State

- Averaged 42.1 yards per punt during his senior year
- Led the Chris Sailer kicking camp with a 4.9 average hang time (a ridiculous number)
- More than a kicker, he led his HS in receiving with a 16.5 yard per catch average. Think of him as a punter in the Ray Guy mold who could also play other positions. No pressure with the Ray Guy comparison, of course.
- Is the highest ranked recruit at his position in Cal's entire '07 class (2nd punter in the nation behind Chas Henry (committed to Florida).

CLASS OF 2007 - LINEBACKERS

2007-02-07T13:30:00.000-08:00

D.J. Holt (Linebacker - Crespi HS, Encino)
6'2"/235/4.7
Reported offers: Arizona State, Washington, SDSU, Fresno State

- Named CIF Division X Defensive Player of the Year after a senior year in which he recorded 72 tackles and 12 sacks. Battled a sore shoulder for most of the season. Also named LA Daily News Defensive Player of the Year.
- Played defensive end in HS but will almost certainly switch to linebacker at Cal. There are suggestions he will fit in a middle backer.
- An opposing coach said of Holt, "He's a Division 1 athlete whether he's playing outside backer, defensive end or any other position. He's just a premium player."

Robert Mullins (Linebacker - Dorsey HS, Los Angeles)
6'2"/205/
Reported offers: Oregon, Arizona, ASU

- Potential. If not for a truly awful hip injury that wiped out his senior season, Mullins might have been the highest rated LB in California. Teamed with Ohio State's Mark Johnson in high school to form the state's leading LB corps, but it was Mullins who got most of the attention.
- Recorded a mind-boggling 165 tackles in his junior season.
- Claims to be almost 100% rehabbed from his injury, which involved damaged cartilage deep in his hip socket.
- Another outstanding student, he carries a 3.4 GPA taking AP courses and plans to study architecture. Dad is a LA County sheriff, and according to a 2005 LA Times feature on Mullins "doesn't take anything but A's and B's" from his son in school.

Devin Bishop (MLB- CCSF)
6'2"/220/4.7
Reported offers: Minnesota

- You already know the family: Brother Desmond was an important leader on the 2006 team.
- A strange recruiting saga saw him bounce back and forth between Minnesota and Cal. Once Devin's academics passed Cal muster, he landed with the Bears.
- 2nd team Juco All-American at CCSF; led the team in tackles and helped CCSF to the state final where they lost to El Camino.
- Projects at middle backer, just like his big brother. We'll see if he can cover sideline to sideline like him, too. A great get who adds immediate help at LB.

Alex Cook (SLB - Blinn College, TX)
6'4"/235/4.5
Reported offers: Arkansas, Louisville, Tennessee, ASU among others

- Excelled at DE, but LB coach Kenwick Thompson sees him playing SLB at Cal. Blinn limited opponents to 120 yards of offense per game.
- Recorded five sacks in a single game against #2 JC Pearl River.
- At Osceola High School in Seminole, FL Cook was an All-State selection as a senior.
- Runs a 4.5 forty. Let us repeat - he runs a 4.5 forty. Matt Felder just got some competition.

CLASS OF 2007 - DEFENSIVE LINE

2007-02-07T13:00:00.000-08:00

Cameron Jordan (Defensive End - Chandler HS, Arizona)
6'4"/240/4.9
Reported offers: Nebraska, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, OSU

- Father was a 6-time Pro Bowl tight end for the Vikings - Niner fans will remember him and gnash their teeth. Dad went to Brown, so academics were stressed in the Jordan household.
- Despite a mediocre forty time, Jordan was highly recruited because he's "ready to play" with good technique.
- Recorded 17.5 sacks and 85 tackles as a senior. His team went 11-2 and contended for the state championship in Arizona.
- May play as a true freshman (according to Jordan, Coach Delgado says two true freshman will contribute on the DL in '07)

Ernest Owusu (Defensive End - The Hun School, Princeton NJ)
6'4 1/2"/245/4.8
Reported offers: North Carolina, Washington, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Minnesota

- Attended the Hun School for one year after four years at Father Ryan HS in Nashville. Reportedly added thirty pounds during his prep year.
- The Hun School is a leading college prep school; Myron Rolle was by some accounts the #1 prospect in the class of '06.
- Owusu is a fairly common surname in Ghana, West Africa. Not sure whether EO's parents trace their heritage back there, but it's a fair guess.
- The fact that Tedford/Delgado took him with three DEs safely in the fold tells you something about Owusu's potential (and Cal's lack of depth at the position).

Scott Smith (Defensive End - St. Louis, Honolulu)
6'5"/240/4.9
Reported offers: Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Boise State, Hawai'i

- I've seen him listed as tall as 6'7". Whatever his height, he's the tallest DE in this class.
- Recorded 14 sacks and led St. Louis (one of Hawai'i's traditional FB powers) to the state championship. Rated the 5th best prospect in Hawai'i and voted All-State at DE.
- The second Cal commit to have some history with hip problems - Smith missed camps with a bad pulled muscle in his hip in 2006.
- Also a very good basketball player, which we just know is a good sign.

Solomona Aigamaua (Defensive End - St. Louis, Honolulu
6'3 1/2"/215/4.7
Reported offers: Arizona, Utah, Hawai'i, SDSU

- Call him the sleeper. Aigamaua is very quick off the edge, but seriously undersized for his position. Will use his blueshirt year to add bulk.
- Almost completely unnoticed until he participated in a May combine and wowed scouts with his speed and agility.
- Another good student; carries a 3.85 GPA.
- Along with Smith, a high school teammate of Cal DT/DE Tyson Alualu. St. Louis is a great place to develop a little pipeline. Also starts for the basketball team.

CLASS OF 2007 - OFFENSIVE LINE

2007-02-07T11:30:00.000-08:00

Matt Summers-Gavin (Guard - St. Ignatius HS, San Francisco)
6'4 1/2"/280/5.2
Reported offers: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon among many others

- Invited to the US Army All-American game, but sat out with a high ankle sprain
- Led St. Ignatius to its first CCS title in 39 years in 2006.
- Played tackle in high school, but is likely to move down to guard in college.
- While he'll probably blueshirt, MSG is polished enough to conceivably play as a freshman.

Sam DeMartinis (Tackle - Notre Dame HS, Sherman Oaks CA)
6'6"/270/5.5
Reported offers: Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Ole Miss, SDSU

- Excelled after Notre Dame made the switch from Division III to the Pac-5 Division and the Serra League, which includes Loyola, Bishop Amat and other powers.
- Brother Tony plays at San Diego State. Dad Jack played at UCLA, but the Bruins never offered his son.
- Team captain his senior year; tore a tendon in his ring finger that forced him to miss the playoffs.
- A ringleader of a group of incoming recruits who have committed to go to the Rose Bowl on various social networking sites.

Mitchell Schwartz (Tackle - Palisades Charter HS)
6'5"/300/5.3
Reported offers: Michigan, Tennessee, Oregon, Stanford, Virginia

- His brother Geoff plays at Oregon.
- 4.87 shuttle speed is very good for a 300-pounder. According to reports, he's never been in a serious weight training program, so there's probably lots of upside there.
- Schwartz is a good athlete, pitching on the Palisades baseball team.
- Another good student, carrying a 4.0 GPA and a 29 on the ACT.

Todd Huber (Center - Palos Verdes Penninsula HS)
6'2"/280/5.0
Reported offers: Arizona State, Washington, Oregon State, Stanford

- Older brother Scott played at SC (98-02)
- 3.9 GPA/1820 SAT
- Admitted to Stanford before he turned them down. Yes, it happens. Increasingly.
- Crazy 4.55 shuttle time given his size. Very quick feet.
- Signed with Cal despite hailing from the same high school as Erik Lorig.

Justin Cheadle (OL/DL - Bakersfield HS)
6'4"/257/4.95
Reported offers: Stanford, Oregon State, ASU, Arizona

- Another lineman who was a basketball star in HS. Very athletic, which has led some to believe he might play defense. So far, the coaching staff maintains he's an OL recruit.
- Rated by Scout as the 3rd best OG in California.
- Another great student; carries a 3.8 GPA.
- Greatest HS nickname ever - the Bakersfield Drillers

CLASS OF 2007 - RECEIVERS

2007-02-07T10:00:00.001-08:00

Alex Lagemann (Receiver - Saratoga HS)
6'3"/206/4.51
Reported offers: Oregon, BYU, Boise State

- Grew up a Stanford fan; family had season tickets. Still committed to Cal before his senior season began.
- Good all-around athlete; played varsity baseball and basketball as well.
- One of few Cal commits with YouTube highlights, which can be found here.

Mike Calvin (Receiver - San Lorenzo HS)
6'2"/195/4.49
Reported offers: Oregon, Utah

- Posted the fastest forty time (4.49) at the Stanford football camp. This is the second consecutive year Cal got the fastest guy at that camp (Jeremy Ross being the winner last year).
- Pretty good basketball player; has a 41-inch vertical.
- Caught 37 passes for 794 yards and 9 scores (with 3 more scores rushing). Pretty good safety, too.
- We really need a picture of him with a different shirt on.

Savai'i Eselu (Tight End - Moanalua HS, Honolulu)
6'4"/245/4.91
Reported offers: Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, Colorado, SDSU

- Was thought to be an Oregon commit before switching his allegiance to Cal in December.
- More heralded as a DE in high school; Moanalua ran the option and Eselu's touches were limited.
- By all accounts, he is a devastating blocker and would seem to be a nice fit in run packages.
- High school team nickname was the Menehunes, which refers to a mythical people who lived in the deep forests of the Hawaiian islands and ate bananas. We're not making that up.

Skylar Curran (Tight End - Butte JC)
6'5"/240/4.67
Reported offers: none

- Prepped at Woodland in the Sacramento area, where his HS QB was Daniel Pinegar, brother of Fresno State QB Paul Pinegar.
- Broke his ankle in a high school all-star game, which sent him off to Butte. Good student throughout HS and JC with a 3.7 GPA. Tedford followed him throughout his rehab, and he was the first recruit to sign an LOI.
- Reportedly benches 350 and squats 500; it's thought he could add another 15-20 pounds given his frame.
- Will become the first Cal football player named Skylar.

CLASS OF 2007 - BACKS

2007-02-07T09:45:00.000-08:00

Brock Mansion (Quarterback - The Episcopal School of Dallas)
6'5"/221/4.75
Reported offers: Baylor, Mississippi State

- Played at a relatively small school - ESD has 400 kids from grades 9 through 12, and competes in the private school classification in Texas. Transferred there from Plano HS.
- Didn't hit it off with Mike Leach, according to a Rivals site, so he's not very piratey. His father, who has been quite involved in Brock's career, fell in love with Tedford early.
- Can run pretty well; covered 900 yards and nine TDs his senior year.
- Volunteers with Ronald McDonald House and the Dallas Food Pantry. Nice touch.

Jahvid Best (Running Back - Salesian HS, Richmond CA)
5'10"/185/4.4
Reported offers: Notre Dame, USC, Oregon

- Gained 3,325 yards and scored 48 touchdowns at Salesian. This year.
- Won the 100m and 200m at the NCS Meet of Champions. Placed third and fifth in those races, respectively, at the CIF state meet in 2006 with a broken bone in his foot. May be faster than DJax.
- Named Player of the Year by the Chronicle.
- Quote from his HS coach: "He's never late. Never cuts class. He does his homework; never misses practice. He practices hard, follows instruction and is respectful to others."

Shane Vereen (Running Back - Valencia HS)
5'10"/180/4.4
Reported offers: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, UNLV, Duke

- His father played football for UNLV (and in the CFL), which is why the Rebs were invited into the process.
- Good student, carries a 3.8 GPA
- Recruited primarily as a DB by SC and UCLA. Vereen is super quick and some think he might challenge Best for the fastest back in the class.
- Rushed for 359 yards and 6 touchdowns on fourteen carries against Golden Valley his senior year. His coach took him out midway through the second quarter.

John Tyndall (Fullback - Pacific Grove HS)
6'3"/215/4.88
Reported offers: Army, BYU, Utah, SJSU

- Will likely grey shirt and count against the '08 class.
- Monterey Athletic League Defensive POY at linebacker; Monterey County Offensive POY; Small Schools All-State team.
- High school team won three consecutive league titles.
- Shares same name as 19th century Irish physicist who is thought to be the first to link CO2 with global warming.

BOOM!

2007-02-07T09:03:00.000-08:00

Two surprises off the bat - Chris Conte and Ernest Owusu both signed LOIs with Cal. Conte, a corner/safety, was an early Cal commit who switched allegiances to the Bruins last month. Owusu, a defensive end, was thought to be a lean to North Carolina as late as last night. Well, the faxes don't lie - welcome to both! We'll have profiles of each as part of their position classes later today.

LOI DAY IS HERE

2007-02-07T08:52:00.000-08:00

Now that we've slagged on recruiting as the least precise science in sports, it's time to drop our facade and become hysterical about California's Class of 2007. Sometime today a couple dozen young men will use this archaic device...

...to communicate their commitment to play football at our beloved University. We'll be following the process all day to provide some background on the Class of 2007, and some gentle analysis of other schools' hauls (not in the OMG they're ranked 8th by Rivals mode, but more looking at balance, depth, and players who Cal also recruited).

FIVE YEARS LATER

2007-02-06T16:00:00.000-08:00

Following on from our more detailed examination of UCLA's historically disappointing class of 2002, we've taken a closer look at the '02 class for the entire conference. We can't be bothered with looking at how every recruit panned out (as we did for the Bruins), but we though it would still be interesting to compare the five most heralded recruits in each class with the five most valuable recruits over their careers. It's all subjective, of course, and it works like this (taking Arizona's truly awful 2002 class as an example):

Arizona 2002
Ryan O'Hara **** (backup QB, left school in 2004)
Javier Martinez **** (arrested, left school in 2002)
Matt Lamatsch **** (backup, left program)
Carl Tuitavuki **** (ordinary starter at DT)
Michael Jefferson **** (transferred to NAU)

These were the five hottest recruits signed to an LOI by John Mackovic in February of 2002. They didn't exactly pan out, which helps explain the recent state of Wildcat football. Now here's a list of the best five recruits from that class judged over their entire career in Tucson, with their original Scout.com star ranking:

Top 5 contributors
Spencer Larsen * (all-conference LB - best at UA since Lance Briggs)
Nick Folk * (probably the best punter in school history)
Marcus Smith * (Pac-10 HM DE in his soph year)
Danny Baugher * (another good punter in this class - strange)
Tuitavuki ****

Not a distinguished group, but far better than the dropouts in the first list. Note that four of the five best players got exactly one star from Scout. So let's move on through the rest of the classes of 2002 and 2003:

Arizona State 2002
Aaron Austin ***** (never panned out at TE, moved to defense)
Terry Richardson **** (great kick returner, OK receiver)
Tim Faaita **** (two-year starter at OG)
Robert James **** (pretty good linebacker)
Ishmael Thrower **** (starter along the D-line)
Top 5 contributors
Derek Hagan * (one of the top receivers in school history)
Richardson ****
Andrew Carnahan *** (all-conference OL)
Jamar Williams * (HM All Pac 10 at LB)
Faaita ****

California 2002
Monte Parson **** (started as a senior, all-academic pick)
Kevin Johnson **** (left school)
Marcus O'Keith *** (reserve back and kick returner)
David Gray *** (never delivered on promise)
Randy Bundy ** (switched to defense, dime back)
Top 5 contributors
Donnie McCleskey * (all-conference as a junior)
Erik Robertson * (2-year starter at guard)
Tim Mixon * (starter at DB)
O'Keith ***
Eric Beegun * (backup TE)

Oregon 2002
Haloti Ngata ***** (greatest DL in school history)
Chris Solomona ***** (good player, starter)
Kellen Taylor ***** (backup receiver)
Albert Toeaina **** (went to JC, eventually transferred to Tennessee)
Marques Binns **** (transferred to Grambling)
Top 5 contributors
Ngata *****
Enoka Lucas * (all-conference center)
Aaron Gipson * (all-conference DB)
Anthony Trucks * (two time 2nd team LB)
JD Nelson * (2nd team DB in 05)

Oregon State 2002
Brandon Lockheart ***** (dismissed from the team in 2002)
Lawrence Turner **** (starter, good player)
Deondre Alexander **** (left school for Palomar juco)
Joe Newton **** (oft-injured starter, good player)
JC Ronnfeldt *** (reserve, left the program in 2005 under a cloud)
Top 5 contributors
Adam Koets * (2nd team all-conference OL)
Brandon Browner ** (2nd team all-conference DB)
Newton ****
Ben Siegert * (HM tight end)
Turner ****

Stanford 2002
Trent Edwards ***** (oft-injured QB never allowed to do much)
Julian Jenkins ***** (honorable mention all-conference; hardly a 5 star)
Matt Traverso **** (OK contributor at TE)
Josiah Vinson *** (mediocre starter on OL)
Marcus McCutcheon *** (bounced around, never started)
Top 5 contributors
TJ Rushing * (starting corner, all-conference return man)
Jenkins ***
Trevor Hooper ** (honorable mention All-Pac 10 DB)
Edwards *****
Jeff Edwards *** (started 40+ games for Stanford on the OL)

UCLA 2002
Marcedes Lewis ***** (Terrific tight end)
Ryan Boschetti ***** (OK DL starter)
Jarrad Page **** (excellent safety now in the NFL)
Eric McNeal **** (career backup)
CJ Niusulu **** (kicked off the team)
Top 5 contributors
Lewis *****
Drew Olson **** (very good QB)
Justin Medlock **** (all-conference kicker)
Page ****
Justin London **** (very good LB)

USC 2002
Manuel Wright ***** (better prospect than player)
Winston Justice ***** (had great senior year)
Darnell Bing ***** (terrific DB)
Dominique Byrd **** (excellent college TE)
Hershel Dennis **** (started as a sophomore, then perpetually injured)
Top 5 contributors
Mike Williams *** (All-America WR)
Bing *****
Byrd ****
Dallas Sartz **** (all-conference LB)
Justice *****

Washington 2002
Donny Mateaki ***** (starter, not particularly good)
Stanley Daniels **** (rather ordinary starter after switch to OL)
Kenny James **** (starter, decent player)
Brandon Ala **** (injured, reserve for most of his time at UW)
Nathan Rhodes **** (never played due to a congenital back problem)
Top 5 contributors
Scott White *** (defensive team MVP)
Clay Walker *** (honorable mention OL)
Isaiah Stanback *** (dangerous QB)
James ****
Dashon Goldson *** (HM in '05 at DB)

Washington State 2002
Jermaine Green ***** (JC transfer became a solid back for the Cougs)
Sammy Moore ***** (solid starter at receiver)
Jonathan Smith ***** (solid player in the backfield)
Kevin Sperry ***** (another juco starter)
Carl Bonnell ***** (DNP, eventually signed with UW)
Top 5 contributors
MKristo Bruce zero stars (All-America)
Eric Frampton ** (all-conference DB)
Nick Millhauser * (2nd team all-conference OL)
Moore *****
Scott Davis * (honorable mention LB)

The moral of the story? The guys at the top of your board are important; if most of them are busts for a couple of years (Arizona's 03 class was just as bad) you're probably going to be in trouble. Secondly, you need to pay attention to the entire class. In eight out of ten of these cases, the most valuable recruit wasn't among the five most decorated prospects. It's amazing in retrospect that guys like MKristo Bruce, Mike Williams, Enoka Lucas, Spencer Larsen, Donnie McCleskey and Derek Hagan were relative afterthoughts in their respective recruiting classes.

A CAUTIONARY TALE - UCLA'S CLASS OF '02

2007-02-06T11:00:00.000-08:00

On LOI Day 2002 Bob Toledo was ecstatic. He had just inked the 7th best recruiting class in America according to Scout.com, and the talented youngsters were just what he needed to keep unhappy alums at bay. He had done so well that a frustrated Washington coach Rick Neuheisel publicly accused him of negative recruiting. UCLA's class that year averaged 3.62 stars per player - a high number given the large size (25 players) of the Bruins' class.

Five years later the UCLA class of '02 serves as a cautionary tale to those who would put too much emphasis on recruiting rankings. The class is littered with injuries, defections, discipline problems, and missed potential. Just for fun, we went back and assigned new ratings to the class based on their contributions to the Bruin program during their stay in Westwood. It's highly subjective, of course, but isn't everything related to this topic?

Ratings key
* Didn't play, or played sparingly
** Contributed in a reserve capacity
*** Starter
**** All-Conference level performer
***** All-America level performer

***** (from Scout.com in '02)
Marcedes Lewis, TE - Terrific tight end ***** (career rating)
Ryan Boschetti JC - a starter and an OK player for UCLA on the defensive line ***

****
Jarrad Page, CB - excellent safety now in the NFL ****
Eric McNeal, S - career backup **
CJ Niusulu, DT - kicked off the team *
Kevin Harbour, DE - left school - **
Robert Chai, OL - solid if unspectacular starter on the OL - ***
Joe Garcia, CB - transferred to Nevada - *
Idris Moss, CB - kicked off the team; transferred to Tulsa - *
Justin London, LB - solid starter at LB - ***
Antwuan Smith, WR - didn't enroll - *
Mike Nixon, S - played baseball for a while then went to ASU *
Glenn Ohaeri, RB - transferred to Colorado State *
Justin Medlock, K - terrific kicker ****
Drew Olson, QB - pretty darn good ****
Matt Moore, QB - started five games; transferred to OSU **

***
JJ Hair, TE - backup tight end **
Xavier Burgess, LB - dropped out of school, transferred to Sac State *
Kirby Joseph, LB - transferred to McNeese State *
Jebiaus Brown, CB - quit the team *
JD Groves, LB - quit the team *
Thomas Patton, DE - transferred *
Wesley Walker, LB - good player ***
Patrick Pierre-Louis, LB - didn't do much *

**
Alex Potasi, OL - kicked off the team *
Elliot Vallejo, OL - transferred to Davis *

On the revised rankings, UCLA earns a grand total of 1.94 stars per recruit, placing them at the bottom of the conference. UCLA's is an extreme case, but a look at the rest of the conference in 2002 and 2003 shows that the experts had as many misses as hits when it came to evaluating recruits. We'll roll that analysis out a bit later in the day.

CLEANING OUT THE DESK (AND ORDERING A HAM SANDWICH)

2007-02-05T14:00:00.000-08:00

* Surprise, surprise. No takers on our open invitation to a debate on the stadium project. Lots of anonymous alleged tree huggers in the comment section, though, which we've now positively ID'd as 15-year old USC fans. The offer still stands.

* Deadspin's headline says it all: "Todd Bozeman is Disappointed in Your Selection of Deli Meat." Someone pull Anwar McQueen out of there, stat.

* Bruins Nation isn't satisfied with being named Pac-10 Blog of the Year, or taking the conference lead in hoops; no, they've got rub our nose in it with breathless updates on commit Kevin Love. Well, we'd be pretty excited too.

* SC is already calling out the Bruins for Thursday night's battle in Pauley. Our favorite quote from Paragon at Conquest Chronicles:

"I am unconcerned at what they think across town. Most of the "tradition" is from days gone by and a loss in last years title game is just that, a loss. This team can play no doubt but they can be beat and I am unimpressed about a bunch of banners that have been collecting dust in an old unrefurbished building from another era, that was then, this is now."

It's funny, that's exactly what we used to say about USC football...

* Husky fans have taken off the gloves after a thirty-point blowout loss at McKale. The term "must win" is a horrible cliche and often misused. That said, Cal is a must win for Washington.

* LOI day is fast approaching and we'll have profiles of Cal's class by position on Wednesday. There's really only one guy left on Cal's board - Juco DE Alex Cook - and he's supposed to announce between Cal, ASU and Arkansas tomorrow. No Gary Doxy surprises in this class, it seems.

THE SWEET SIXTEEN - #10 - ED GRAY

2007-02-05T12:00:00.000-08:00

#10 - ED GRAY - GUARD (1996-1997)
A transfer from Tennessee, Gray played only two years in Berkeley, but they were among the most memorable in school history. When he signed with Cal it merited one sentence in the San Francisco Chronicle: "College of Southern Idaho basketball player Ed Gray, a former player at the University of Tennessee, has signed a letter of intent to attend UC-Berkeley for the 1995-96 season." Gray was a JC All-America and a great recruit, but couldn't help but look small next to classmate Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

Gray got off to a hot start, averaging 16 points through the first two months of the season, before Todd Bozeman benched him for missing classes. He eventually applied himself well enough in the classroom to stay in Bozeman's good graces and contribute huge performances on the court (22 in an upset of #9 Arizona, 27 against ASU). Gray was occasionally erratic, falling into slumps that led to subpar performances (2 points against USC), but when he was on no one in the Pac-10 could guard him. He ended the year with 15.6 ppg, and was named Pac-10 Newcomer of the Year. The Bears limped to the finish line and were knocked out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Iowa State.

After Abdur-Rahim left for the pros, Gray became new coach Ben Braun's first and last option on offense in 1997. He got right to work, scoring 20 points in an upset of Iowa in Braun's first game at the Maui Invitational. He then added 32 in a loss to #2 Kansas, and 24 in an upset of #17 UMass that gained Cal a surprising 3rd place finish in Maui. Then came 30 points in an overtime win over Illinois, 26 against Penn State, and suddenly nobody was talking about Shareef. Gray continued his torrid shooting throughout the conference season, leading the Bears to a 2nd place finish in the Pac-10. It was Gray's shot (giving him 29 points) that put the nail in UCLA's coffin at Pauley in January of '97, giving the Bears hope that they might win the crown; but losses down the stretch to WSU and Stanford kept the Bears from the title.

His greatest game as a Golden Bear was unfortunately his last. In that loss to WSU at Friel Court, Gray was unstoppable, scoring 48 points on a combination of long-range jumpers and drives to the basket. With 1:14 left he soared above the Cougar defense and was fouled in a dunk attempt; after hanging on the rim for a second or two he fell to the floor and fractured a bone in his right foot. Without their top scorer, Cal still somehow made a memorable run to the Sweet 16; one wonders how far they might have gone if Gray had been pouring in his usual 24 points per game.

Even with the sour ending, Gray's senior season was perhaps the greatest individual performance in school history. He averaged 24.8 ppg, and left Berkeley with the records for the highest career scoring average (20.0 ppg) and the most 30-point games (six). Gray was named Pac-10 Player of the Year and a third-team All-American by the Associated Press. He was drafted 22nd overall by the Atlanta Hawks in 1997, and his two-year career in Atlanta was marked by injury, inconsistent play, and off-court troubles. He played for a bit in the CBA, and then in London, and then we lost track of him. As the Cyberbears' handle asks, "Whatever happened to Ed Gray?"

CONGRATULATIONS

2007-02-04T20:57:00.000-08:00

Tarik Glenn ('97) hoists the Lombardi Trophy (REUTERS/Mike Blake)

Matt Giordano ('05) ends the Bears' final drive (AP/Michael Conroy)

Our congratulations to two great Golden Bears for winning their first Super Bowl championship. Tarik and his linemates had a terrific game, and the G-Man got a nice lick in towards the end of the game. Condolences to Ron Rivera ('84), but he's already got a ring and should soon become the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. So he's doing OK.

Gearing up for a busy week - LOI Day and the Washington roadie. Stay tuned....

SATURDAY'S LESSONS

2007-02-04T08:18:00.000-08:00

We've always figured ourselves to be smack dab in the middle of the never-ending Ben Braun debate. We haven't written him off as many Bear fans have done; on the other hand, we're unsatisfied with the results of his tenure at Berkeley - 11 years with no conference championships and a single Sweet 16 berth is not acceptable.

We think we've been fair to him this year, crediting his ability to improve the Bears' offense with eight-nine healthy scholarship players and maintain the team's focus through a very rough period. For the most part, this team has played hard and smart.

But last night's effort raises a troubling question that can't simply be answered by a glance at the injury list. How could the Bears come out that flat in a home game with their hated cross-Bay rival? Stanford got off to a 20-4 lead, and the game was essentially over after eight minutes. We know that Cal made a spirited comeback, but the abysmal start reflects poorly on Braun's ability to motivate his charges for what should have been the Game of the Year.

Are we being too harsh on Coach Braun? We don't think so, but we'd invite opposing viewpoints.

In other action...

* That grease stain on the floor of Pauley Pavilion? That's the once proud Oregon State Beavers, who lost by forty-seven points to UCLA. OSU scored 35 points in the entire game. Building the Dam has all the gory details of an historic butt-kicking. It's UCLA's conference to lose at this point, as we expected.

* ASU deserves lots of credit for their defensive effort against Washington State, holding the Cougs to 12 points in the second half and almost pulling the upset.

* Ernie Kent had his first Lost Weekend - how will the Ducks respond next week against the Arizonas at home?

* We don't buy that Arizona is back because they crushed UW at home by thirty. We are intrigued by the emergence of Jordan Hill, who went for 16 points, eight boards and five big blocks. Three of their next four are at Oregon and home dates with the LA schools. If they can go 3-1 through this stretch, we'll say they're back.

STANFORD AT CALIFORNIA - PREDICTION

2007-02-03T08:46:00.000-08:00

This is a tough game to call (on at 6:30 on Fox Sports national). On the one hand, Ken Pomeroy predicts a two-point Cal victory. On the other hand, numbers can be misleading.

It's hard for us to imagine how the Bears can cope with two healthy Lopez brothers inside and on the glass. At the same time, Stanford has difficulties of its own on the defensive end. Their height discourages penetration and inside scoring, but the Cardinal have been vulnerable to teams with strong perimeter games. If we knew that Ubaka and Vierneisel would be at 100%, we'd probably pick the Bears. Ubaka should be ready to go, but Vierneisel is still hobbled with a bad ankle and won't play much (if at all). Given this, we're forced to concede the strong possibility of a season split with our hated rivals. Prove us wrong, you Bears!

Stanford 76 California 74

AN OPEN INVITATION

2007-02-02T12:59:00.000-08:00

In recent days there have been some rather uncivil exchanges between Cal fans and, I guess, tree fans. We've had to switch the blog to moderated comments, which is disappointing, but the hassle is better than a stream of obscene one-word posts from trolls.

That's of course what makes the Stadium story so irresistible to the mainstream media - the antagonists hate each other. On one side you've got Cal football fans, most of whom attended the University and suffered through at least four years of living in the People's Republic of Public Filth and Assorted Madness. On the other hand you've got the professional protesting classes, who love trees and conflict and hate the University and most other large concentrations of wealth and influence. These groups would argue about the weather, let alone a large construction project.

Regardless of one's views on the project, we can all agree that anonymous posts filled with ad hominem attacks on the character of the other side add nothing to the debate. So we're inviting anyone who is legitimately involved with one of our four antagonists - the Tightwad Hill crowd, the City of Berkeley, the Panoramic View homeowners, or the Oak Tree mob - to join us in a friendly Q&A on the merits of the University's project.

Seriously - we'll go modified Lincoln-Douglas style, with an unedited opening statement and then an exchange of questions and answers from both sides. We of course reserve the right to point out the errors in your statements, since we're confident there will be more than a few, but we won't edit anything you say beyond obscenities and calls for illegal activities. We're not afraid to hear your side of things, or to let you pick apart our arguments for the project. We are skeptical that you're willing to do much more than shout epithets and massage the facts to suit your needs. Prove us wrong. Send us an email with your credentials and we'll go from there.

And just to show we're of the best intentions, here's some old school Santana as inspiration. Probably the only thing we can agree upon is that this kicks a little ass, even considering Carlos' outfit.

THE SWEET SIXTEEN - #11 - LARRY FRIEND

2007-02-02T12:30:00.000-08:00

#11 - LARRY FRIEND - FORWARD (1955-1957)
OK, we're back in the swing of things in our highly subjective countdown of Cal's 16 greatest basketball stars. This is the second of several "who's he" picks for many of our readers. Larry Friend was Pete Newell's second star in Berkeley (we'll meet the first a little higher up on this list) and the captain of Newell's first championship team.

Friend was born in Chicago, and played his first three years of prep basketball at Marshall HS before his family moved to Los Angeles. He became a star at Fairfax High, and entered junior college to prepare for an eventual transfer to California in 1954. He arrived on campus the same time as a certain head coach, who had left Michigan State to revive Cal's basketball fortunes.

Newell's first team was led by All-America Bob McKeen (more on him later in the countdown) but aided by 12.3 ppg from Friend, his 6'4" sophomore. That team limped to the finish line with a 9-16 mark, but after a full off-season of tutelage from the master, Cal burst out of the gate in 1956 with a 9-1 mark. After losing three of their next four - including a memorable 33-24 four corners loss to Bill Russell's USF Dons, the Bears caught fire, winning eight in a row behind Friend's scoring in the paint. He finished the year with a 13.0 ppg average, and the Bears improved to 3rd in the conference with a 17-8 mark.

As a senior, Friend was named team captain and became the unquestioned leader of the Golden Bears. He averaged 18.9 ppg over a season that saw Cal race out to a 16-2 start, suffering losses only to defending national champion USF and #1 ranked Kansas. The Bears lost only twice in conference play, and in each instance they avenged the loss with a later win (against Washington and UCLA). The 14-2 mark was good enough for Newell's first PCC championship, Cal's first since 1953.

Cal met Brigham Young in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Corvallis, Oregon. The Bears blew out the Cougars behind 25 points from Friend and 18 from teammate Earl Robinson. On deck was a date with two-time defending champion USF, who had lost Russell and KC Jones but still featured stars like Mike Farmer and Gene Brown. Friend scored 12 points and grabbed six rebounds, but it wasn't quite enough; Brown's twenty points led the Dons to a narrow four point victory. Despite the loss, Friend was named the MVP of the Western Regional, having set a Cal record for most points in an NCAA tournament game that would last for 39 years.

Friend was named to the Helms Athletic Foundation's first team All-America squad following his senior season. He was drafted by the New York Knicks and averaged four points per game in a reserve role before badly injuring his knee at the end of the season. He returned to professional basketball in 1961, playing a starring role for the Los Angeles Jets of the new American Basketball League, but that league unfortunately folded after just one season of play.

Turning away from basketball, Friend built a very successful investment practice in Orange County and later became a part owner of the NBA's Phoenix Suns. He died in 1998 after a long bout with prostate cancer. Larry Friend was only 62. He is a member of both the Cal Athletic Hall of Fame and the National Jewish Sports Hall of Fame.

STANFORD - THE REMATCH

2007-02-02T09:01:00.000-08:00

In the first meeting, Cal waxed Stanford on their home floor for the first time in fourteen tries. That historic victory was made possible by Ayinde Ubaka's 26 point performance - his best game as a Golden Bear.

Since that game, Stanford has made dramatic improvements while Cal has grown even thinner with injuries and illness limiting the effectiveness of Eric Vierneisel, Ubaka and now Theo Robertson. In this preview we'll break down what went right for Cal against the Cardinal last month, and examine the chances for a series sweep tomorrow at Haas Pavilion.

As noted above, Cal beat the Cardinal at Maples because Ubaka and his teammates dominated the Stanford backcourt, outscoring them 41-20. As expected, Stanford controlled the boards, pulling down 50 rebounds to Cal's 32. However, Stanford missed several easy put backs and les freres Lopez were a combined 7-20 from the floor. Brook Lopez only played 16 minutes and was generally ineffective. Anthony Goods shoot poorly from three (2-7) and the Cardinal as a team were only 3-16 beyond the arc.

So what has changed for Stanford? For starters, Brook Lopez (right) is reasonably healthy. He's playing 30+ minutes per game, and he's become much more effective, scoring 20 points against Gonzaga and 18 against USC with a school-record 12 blocked shots.

Trent Johnson has shuffled his starting lineup, going with both Lopez brothers, Lawrence Hill, Fred Washington and Anthony Goods. There's not a true point guard in that lineup, but the Cardinal have still done an OK job getting the ball inside the Lopez brothers. Mitch Johnson, the former starting point, is now the first man off the bench. He continues to underwhelm, and the Cardinal are a less effective offensive team with him on the floor.

Keys to the Game - Cal offense
When both bigs are on the floor, Stanford will often zone - and they'll likely do that against Cal, whose #4 and #5 men can run and shoot from outside. So the recipe for Cal's success is pretty simple - attack the zone effectively with cutters to the high post, and shoot well from the perimeter. We've seen Cal do the latter - the Bears are shooting a respectable 37% from three this year. However, we haven't seen them dissect a zone effectively all year.

Ubaka (left) needs to return to form; according to Braun he was still feeling the effects of the flu as late as Wednesday. Vierneisel doesn't figure to play much, but we could certainly use him from the outside if Stanford does indeed run lots of zone.

Keys to the Game - Cal defense
On the defensive end, Cal will need to do two things: 1) play effective pressure defense to complicate entry passes to the post, and 2) limit Stanford's opportunities on the offensive glass. That's a tall order, even with Cal's recent improvements in rebounding.

Taylor Harrison is another key. (Did we just write that?) Harrison got USC's Taj Gibson out of his game by inducing a technical foul in Saturday's loss to the Trojans. Look for him to pester the Lopez brothers tomorrow in the hopes of luring them into foul trouble.

THE SWEET SIXTEEN - #12 - GEORGE DIXON

2007-02-01T17:00:00.000-08:00

#12 - GEORGE DIXON - GUARD (1925-1927)
Who? Just the only two-time first team All-American in school history, that's who. Dixon was a guard and captain for the Bears who led the team to undefeated records in both 1926 and 1927. The basketball of that era would be barely recognizable today. In 1926 the Cal team averaged fewer points per game than the football team did this year. They beat UCLA 21-8, and St. Mary's 27-12.

Dixon was a big, physical guard who was named the top guard in the Pacific Coast Conference after his junior and senior years. After both seasons Dixon and his mates faced Oregon in a two out of three tournament for PCC conference supremacy. Cal won all four games, by an average of ten points. Dixon was the first Golden Bear to be named to an All-America squad, earning the honors from the Helms Foundation in both '26 and '27.

One wonders whether California might have contended for national championships during Dixon's era, but sadly he came along much too early for the NIT or NCAA tournaments, which started in 1938 and 1939, respectively. Dixon's worth to the Cal team was proven out in 1928, the year after his graduation, when Cal slipped to a 9-6 record.

Dixon's reputation for hard-nosed play is supported by his decorated rugby career. In his sophomore year, he was a member of the 1924 US Olympic rugby team, which traveled to Paris to compete in a three-team tournament with Romania and the favored host country. The US had won the gold medal in the 1920 Antwerp Games behind a half-dozen Cal stars, but the French team were 20-1 favorites to win the gold on home soil in '24. The majority of American players this time around were football and basketball players from Stanford and Cal who had only been playing rugby for six months. We'll turn it over to the Rugby Football History website from here:

"If these young American athletes expected to be welcomed to France with kisses on both cheeks, they were unpleasantly surprised. The team was the target of hostility even before the players set foot on French soil. French journalists branded them "streetfighters and saloon brawlers" after a brouhaha in the port of Boulogne where immigration officials mistakenly refused the team entry, and the players - many of whom had been seasick during the turbulent crossing - forced their way off the ship onto dry land.
The American rugby players' reputation only deteriorated. When Paris authorities cancelled previously arranged games against local club teams and restricted American workouts to a patch of scrub land next to their hotel, the players responded by marching down to Colombes Stadium, scaling the fence, and going through their paces on the hallowed turf.

"It wasn't the best way to conduct international affairs," concedes Norman Cleaveland, chuckling at the memory. "If they wanted to push us around," snarls 91-year-old Charlie Doe, who was vice-captain of the 1924 team, "then we damn well pushed back."

Dixon and the rest of the ragtag bunch of Bay Area athletes kicked the favored French all over the pitch and won a 17-3 upset and the gold medal. The crowd of 40,000 Frenchmen had to be restrained by les gendarmes from attacking the upstart Americans, who couldn't hear the Star Spangled Banner through the booing and catcalls.

Would make a great movie, no?

IT'S COACH MICH!

2007-02-01T15:20:00.000-08:00

Word's breaking that Tedford has decided to promote Jim Michalczik to Offensive Coordinator. We had the right idea, but the wrong guy. Coach Mich is an excellent choice and by all accounts a terrific guy who commands respect from his players. We thought Gould was the more natural pick, based on two things: 1) his tenure with the program, and 2) the fact that RB coaches do less in-game 'coaching' than OL coaches.

The questions that come to mind are: 1) Will Michalczik be in the booth, and 2) Will Cal then hire a replacement or assistant to work with the OL during the games? We can't imagine that he can wear both hats on the field, unless the Bears are going to drop pretenses and just have Tedford call all the plays. The official release suggests Michalczik will continue his OL responsibilities, so perhaps that is the case.

In any event, Michalczik loves the power run game, and so do we. If the spread isn't dead, it's certainly on life support - at least until Longshore graduates.

Congratulations to Coach Michalczik and his family on a well-deserved promotion. GO BEARS!

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL NEWS & OTHER NOTES

2007-02-01T11:26:00.000-08:00

Sure, why not? Beats debating the most effective vector for spreading Sudden Oak Death.

* Alonzo Carter, the successful and relentlessly self-promoting head coach at Oakland McClymonds for the past eight years, is moving a few miles north to become the head coach at Berkeley High. This Coach Carter looks nothing like Samuel L Jackson - he's built like a beer keg and is loud and boisterous. Under his watch, Mack has won four Oakland Athletic League championships, and sent Derrick Hill, Kyle Reed and David Gray among others to play at Cal. Here's an entertaining video of the man himself touring around the Mack campus.

Coach Carter regularly projects himself as being "close to the program," and he probably is - Tedford has been very careful to repair relations with Bay Area coaches that had frayed during the Gilby/Mooch/Holmoe era. If he can turn Berkeley High into a local power, that's only good news for Cal down the road.

* Big night in hoops, headlined by the Ducks and Bruins at Pauley in the Battle for Conference Supremacy. Our gut tells us this will be a UCLA win, but then we think of how the Bruins struggled to contain Stanford's guards. And then we think of Aaron Brooks....and we still pick UCLA by four. The key to this game should be offensive rebounding by the Bruins. We love Maarty Leunen, but he'll have his hands full tonight.

* Arizona needs to get its shit together in a hurry, but may have to wait until Saturday. Washington State visits Tucson tonight, and the Cougars look to again be a tough matchup for the Cats. Greg Hansen has a great piece in the Daily Star on the recruitment of the Cougars which should put stars in perspective for those fretting over Cal's Scout ranking. Our favorite quote comes from Devon Harmeling - "Genetically, I'm not a Division 1 player." Except for the genes that make you money from 22 feet, we suppose.

* Cal had a visit this week from Juco DE Alex Cook, who's reported to be an Arkansas lean. ASU's also in the running and hosted Cook this week as well. Probably a long shot, but we thought we'd mention it since this is the one area JT and staff haven't addressed in the '07 class - a DE who can come in and contribute immediately.

WOW

2007-02-01T08:53:00.000-08:00

90-86. Double OT. Stanford losing at home. You really couldn't ask for much more from a basketball game. The biggest winner last night was Gonzaga, who needed this game badly to build a better case for an at-large bid (in the event they don't win the WCC).

The biggest loser? Other than the very ordinary crowd of Maples dorks, who haven't yet regained their fastball, the biggest losers are the Washington Huskies. Washington seems primed for a second-half run, but Jerry Palm rates their RPI as 69th best in the nation (right ahead of Winthrop). The Huskies need their non-conference opponents - particularly LSU - to play better down the stretch; they also need Pac-10 teams to win their games out of conference. A Stanford win last night (and for that matter an Arizona win last weekend) would have been one of the many shots in the arm that Romar's team needs to earn a bid in March.

The Cardinal come to Haas this weekend, and we'll take a closer look at the game later today.

HALFWAY HOME - PAC-10 OUTLOOK, PART TWO

2007-01-31T13:50:00.000-08:00

Continuing our look at the Pac-10 at the midway point, here's a look at the bottom half of the conference, and our picks for mid-season honors:

#6. Stanford Cardinal (14-5/6-3)
The hottest stock in the conference. The big boys are rounding into shape, and Trent Johnson has finally parked his son's butt on the bench. The win against UCLA was no fluke - the Cardinal can hang with anyone in the conference provided their guards don't give games away with turnovers and ill-advised shots (we're looking at you, Anthony Goods). Tonight's game with Gonzaga will be a nice measuring stick.
1st half MVP: Lawrence Hill. 15.9 ppg on 55% shooting? Not what we expected. Hill (right) has been the heart and soul of the Cardinal, and his ability to create off the dribble has helped the Lopez twins play an even larger role on the offensive end.
Pleasant surprise: Robin Lopez. Brook was supposed to be the better of the two twins, and probably will be over time as he fully recovers from his back injury. Meanwhile Robin is shooting 53% from the field and looks like a pretty polished Pac-10 big man.
Important number: 12. That's how many blocks Brook Lopez had against USC. The Cardinal are 2nd in the nation in block % thanks to their imposing duo up front.
What they need to fix: Mitch Johnson will never be a good point guard, but he's got to stop losing games for the Cardinal. His old man has finally taken him out of the starting lineup in favor of the big lineup of both Lopezes, Hill, Fred Washington and Anthony Goods. That's a start, but Johnson still plays 25+ minutes and has got to be something other than a turnover machine during those stretches.
Reasonable expectation: An NCAA bid.

#7. Washington Huskies (13-7/3-6)
If Stanford is the hottest stock in the conference, we think Washington is the best buy (along with Arizona). The Huskies have under-performed in the first half of conference play, but showed signs of getting their act together in the win over Oregon. It hinges on Justin Dentmon and Ryan Appleby, who can help squeeze the Huskies into the Tourney with an improved second half. If they simply take care of the basketball and play better defense, Washington could prove to be a tough matchup for teams down the stretch.
1st half MVP: Jon Brockman. Freshman Spencer Hawes has been great, but Brockman (left) makes this team go, averaging 9.5 rebounds a game and contributing more than 13 ppg.
Pleasant surprise: There really aren't any. Quincy Pondexter had a terrific start but has struggled a bit in conference play. We knew Hawes would be terrific, and he's lived up to expectations. The backcourt has been a major disappointment.
Important number: 42.6. That's Washington's offensive rebound %, fourth best in the nation. This team lives off second shots, and opponents who can control the defensive glass turn the Huskies into a very ordinary team.
What they need to fix: Defensive efficiency. The Huskies don't surrender lots of points because they play at a fast pace. They surrender lots of points because their defense stinks on ice. Their guards are a step slow and can be taken off the dribble.
Reasonable expectation: We think the Huskies might be able to get it together to qualify for the NCAAs, but that's about it. Even that result would be a disappointment, regardless of how young these Huskies might be.

#8. California Golden Bears (12-9/4-5)
Ben Braun is keeping his charges together with duct tape and chewing gum, and there's reason to believe the Bears can pull an upset or two in the second half of the season. That would get them into the NIT, which would be a pretty good outcome considering their injury woes.
1st half MVP: Ryan Anderson. A week ago Ayinde Ubaka might have been the pick here, but his bout with the flu left Cal really short-handed against the LA schools. And besides, Anderson is pretty valuable as the only reliable scorer taller than 6'5" on the team.
Pleasant surprise: Anderson, again. Everyone else has played up to expectations.
Important number: 78.6. That's the Bears' FT %, and it leads the nation. Cal has kept themselves in game after game at the line.
What they need to fix: Cal does a very poor job turning their opponents over. The Bears rank near the bottom of the NCAAs in steal and block %. Given their physical shortcomings and lack of depth, it's difficult for the Bears to trade possessions over a full forty minutes.
Reasonable expectation: 16-17 wins and an NIT berth.

#9. Oregon State Beavers (9-13/1-8)
Boy, this is one disappointing team, and unlike ASU you can't blame it on youth. OSU starts one freshman in Josh Tarver and the other four starters are upperclassmen.
1st half MVP: Marcel Jones. Jones (left) is sixth in the Pac-10 in scoring at 16.5 ppg and also pulls down 6 rebounds per game. He's frankly the only scoring threat on the Beavers (including Mr. Outside, Sasa Cuic) - shut down Jones, and you beat the Beavers. Hell, you probably beat them even if he goes off for 25.
Pleasant surprise: Kyle Jeffers has been a force on the offensive glass, and the lone shot-blocker inside. He doesn't add much offensively (6.5 ppg) but that's OK given that Jones and Cuic are black holes.
Important number: 59.1 - which is OSU's awful % from the foul line. Every one of their starters is 65% or worse from the stripe. To compound matters, the Beavers rarely get to the foul line in the first place, ranking 319th in the nation in free throw rate %.
What they need to fix: Josh Tarver needs to play much better in the second half of the season. It's hard to be efficient offensively when your 3rd leading shooter averages 37% from the field (and 26% from three).
Reasonable expectation: One more conference win (against the Sun Devils in February). Lots of alumni heat on Jay John in the offseason.

#10. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-14/0-9)
Mr. Excitement has brought his snoozy brand of basketball to the desert, and as expected the first half of the season has been a learning experience for the Devils. And by learning experience we mean zero conference wins.
1st half MVP: Jeff Pendergraph. Well, there's not a lot of competition. Pendergraph (right) continues to be one of the most dangerous scorers in the conference off the glass: he averages 59% from the field and leads the conference in offensive rebounds with 84.
Pleasant surprise: Freshman Derek Glasser has stepped in and done an OK job at the point, ranking 125th in the nation in Assist Rate.
Important number: One. That's how many seniors rank in the top nine Devils in terms of minutes played. This may be a brutal transition year, but things look much brighter for ASU in '07-'08.
What they need to fix: Everything? The Devils don't do anything particularly well right now. Sendek's offense depends on movement away from the basketball and high-percentage shots. The Devils are shooting 48.5% from the floor, but only 30.5% from three. Worse, they throw up a lot of threes - 38.4% of their shots are from beyond the arc. They've got to find ways to get the ball inside to Pendergraph and Atuahene or hope the kids (Shipp and Polk) become much more reliable from the perimeter.
Reasonable expectation: Winning a conference game.

* * * * * * * * *

Mid-Season Pac-10 Awards:
Player of the Year: Aaron Brooks, Oregon
Coach of the Year: Tim Floyd, USC
Freshman of the Year: Ryan Anderson, California (suck it, Budinger)

All-Pac 10 (ten selections):
Arron Afflalo, UCLA
Ryan Anderson, California
Jon Brockman, Washington
Aaron Brooks, Oregon
Darren Collison, UCLA
Taj Gibson, USC
Lawrence Hill, Stanford
Derrick Low, Washington State
Ivan Radenovic, Arizona
Mustafa Shakur, Arizona

Honorable Mention (another ten):
Spencer Hawes, Washington
Marcel Jones, Oregon State
Maarty Leunen, Oregon
Robin Lopez, Stanford
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA
Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State
Bryce Taylor, Oregon
Kyle Weaver, Washington State
Marcus Williams, Arizona
Nick Young, USC

HALFWAY HOME - PAC-10 OUTLOOK, PART ONE

2007-01-31T11:15:00.000-08:00

In an earlier post we looked at Cal's second half chances and saw - well, not much. Today we'll roll out a mid-season review of the entire conference starting with the top 5 teams as we see them. Later today we'll have the bottom half of the conference, and our picks for Pac-10 honors. This is a power poll that doesn't perfectly conform to current conference standings (as you'll note by our #5 choice).

#1. UCLA Bruins (18-2/7-2)
Yeah, why not? They're not perfect - any team that allows Stanford's guards to take them off dribble drive is far from that - but this is still the best TEAM in the conference and our conference's best bet to cut down the nets in Atlanta. Defense rarely slumps.
1st half MVP: Arron Afflalo. We thought about giving this to Collison, since he's such a sparkplug on the defensive end, but Afflalo showed us why he's an All American by nearly outscoring Cal in the second half at Haas. When the Bruins' backs are against the wall, AA is the guy who will bail them out on both ends of the floor.
Pleasant Surprise: Lorenzo Mata blocks shots and controls the defensive glass - an underrated contributor who has really polished his game since last year.
Important Number: 28.2. That's the % of opponents' field goal attempts that come from three point range, ranking 19th in the nation. This shows that the Bruins get out on shooters as well as any team in the conference, reducing their vulnerability to rivals who have a hot shooting night.
What they need to fix: Two things - 1) they can struggle to stay in an offensive flow and Collison needs to establish a bit better control of the half court. 2) And, of course, the free throw shooting is still a bit of an Achilles heel. Nitpicking, really.
Reasonable expectation: UCLA will be a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament, and they have all the ingredients to make a return visit to the Final Four.

#2. Oregon Ducks (19-2/7-2)
We've stopped waiting for Ernie Kent to implode; he's got the Ducks playing really well and is the odds-on favorite to win Coach of the Year (though we'd give it to Floyd). Few teams in the country can score from outside like the Ducks - we knew that, but we've been shocked by how well they lock down opponents in slower paced games.
1st half MVP: Aaron Brooks. Who else? He's the Conference POY so far - he sits against UW and the Ducks lose. He returns, and Oregon knocks off WSU at Friel. He slumps in the first half against Cal, and the Bears run Oregon out of the gym. He catches fire, and leaves the Bears grasping at air.
Pleasant Surprise: Tajuan Porter's the trendy pick here, but we're going to give it to Maarty Leunen. Leunen leads the conference in rebounding, which is pretty important for a team that has one post player (two if you count Zahn off the bench).
Important Number: 41.2. That's the % of Oregon's field goal attempts that come from behind the arc. Live by the three, die by the three. This makes Oregon an interesting team come Tourney time - on a cold night they could be upset bait.
What they need to fix: Even with Leunen, they can really struggle on the glass. Their wings need to stay at home against bigger teams like Washington if the Ducks are to make a run deep into March.
Reasonable expectation: Elite Eight. They seem like one of the eight best teams in the country right now.

#3. Washington State Cougars (17-4/6-3)
Everyone's cuddly underdog, right? Not ours. We remember Tony Bennett ending Jason Kidd's college career, so we will continue to root against the Cougars. Not that it will help much - WSU does the little things better than any team in the conference, and their efficiency masks some obvious athletic shortcomings.
1st half MVP: Derrick Low. Takes care of the basketball like no other point guard in college basketball (see "important number," below). Shoots 42.5% from three. Fifth in the conference in steals.
Pleasant Surprise: Kyle Weaver. Kind of hard to call Weaver a big surprise, since he was the most athletic returnee on the Cougar team, but he's taken his game to the next level. Teams must respect his ability to penetrate and finish at the basket, and this makes Low and Ivory Clark all the more dangerous in the half court.
Important Number: 15.9. That's WSU's turnover %, which ranks them 2nd in the country. The Cougars simply don't waste possessions, which is why they've become a much more efficient offense.
What they need to fix: Offensive Rebounding. It's really nice that Wazzu has been efficient in the half-court, shooting 47% from the field. But eventually the Cougars will have a night where the shots don't fall, and they need to generate second shots. Right now they're 9th in the Pac-10, and that won't cut it.
Reasonable expectation: Sweet 16. Depth is a killer for the Cougars, and they will struggle against teams who match up well defensively in the half court and can run. If WSU gets the right draw, though, there's no reason to think they can't go a step further.

#4. USC Trojans (16-6/6-3)
The Extreme Makeover of the Pac-10 - Tim Floyd has completely reinvented the Trojans as a defensive juggernaut. What a brilliant hire. It's getting harder and harder to remember just how dysfunctional this bunch was under Henry Bibby.
1st half MVP: Taj Gibson. He's the only new starter, so we give him the lion's share of the credit for SC's improved defensive efficiency. Gibson helps force opponents to the perimeter where they must contend with a swarm of athletic and long 6'5" guards.
Pleasant surprise: The defense, obviously. No team in the conference has made a bigger improvement in its defensive stats than USC. Also, SC's freshmen have made big contributions off the bench.
Important number: 42.2. That's the effective FG % for USC opponents (giving greater weight to made three-pointers). That ranks them third in the freaking nation. Ernie Kent's getting lots of love for COY, but we think Floyd deserves the honor for eliciting this type of improvement.
What they need to fix: Turnovers. Floyd seems to have gone a ways toward fixing this issue, but without a "true" point USC can still fall into stretches where they're lax with the basketball.
Reasonable expectation: Sweet 16. Why not? Floyd's a good game coach, and the Trojans have enough offensive weapons to slug it out in the half court. This is a very dangerous team, and they have a top 5 recruiting class coming in.

#5. Arizona Wildcats (14-6/5-4)
As noted yesterday, Lute is back on retirement watch after the Cats' recent implosions in LA and against North Carolina at home. The big question in Tucson is whether he's lost his touch. Some of the Cats have made great improvements (Ivan the Terrible, Shakur) but collectively they suffer from the same defensive shortcomings that plagued them in '05-'06. Are we witnessing the end of an era, or will Arizona pull it together for one last run?
1st half MVP: Ivan Radenovic (right). For all the Chase Budinger hype, Radenovic has quietly put together an all-conference season (15.8/7.8) even if his teammates don't get him the ball enough.
Pleasant surprise: Mustafa Shakur has finally emerged as the true point guard that Cat fans have been waiting for. He averages 7.4 assists per game and is a big reason that Arizona runs the most efficient offense in the nation.
Important number: 33.6/19.0. Those are Arizona's %s for getting to the line, and keeping opponents from the line. They rank 10th in the nation on the former stat, and first in the nation on the latter. This tells you two things: first, Lute hasn't lost his touch and still rides the refs better than any coach in the conference. Second, Arizona's always a threat to win games at the line, which is critical come tournament time.
What they need to fix: Lazy perimeter defense. Arizona isn't a very big team inside, so you'd think opponents would jam the ball inside to get Radenovic in foul trouble. Nope - Arizona is almost dead last in the country in the % of opponents' shots that come from three point range. Watching the Cats confirms this - their guards and wings just don't pressure shooters as well as they need to to make a deep run in March.
Reasonable expectation: Who knows? We continue to think this team could make the Elite Eight. They could also be one-and-done in the tourney. It all comes down to the defense - every other part of their game is Final Four-worthy.

A MODEST REQUEST

2007-01-31T09:00:00.000-08:00

To: The Editors of the San Francisco Chronicle
Re: Your 1.29.07 Editorial on the Memorial Stadium Controversy

Your recent editorial, suggesting that the University fold its tent and hereafter play its home games at the Oakland Coliseum, is quite possibly the dumbest suggestion you've made in a long history of dumb suggestions. We're not even going to pick it apart - it's that stupid; the mother of all non-starters. The Mausoleum is not the Rose Bowl. It's a dilapidated, ugly facility sandwiched between an airport, a freeway, and...well, Oakland. As for building a new facility, well, we wouldn't collaborate with Al Davis and John York to order Chinese takeout, let alone build a football stadium.

But our point is larger than your silly editorial. We'd like to request that you stop covering California athletics. No, seriously - we don't need the aggravation. You see, athletic programs are now covered by lots of national specialty media - you may have heard of ESPN - which have become primary news sources for most people in your coverage area. All you do with your half-baked articles is blur the picture for those out-of-town bloggers and professional media who erroneously suppose that they can "get the local scoop" by linking to your material. You are thus a source of disinformation.

Yes, yes - Glenn Dickey got Cal, and we, unlike many of our brethren, occasionally liked what he wrote about Golden Bear athletics (the other stuff is drivel, of course). Of course, he's now over at the other paper (ed - fixed) Well, we can get Cyberbears to lob him the occasional guest column and voila, there's a Dickey fix for the ten or so of us who enjoy his insights.

You see the occasional good column over the years from GD is now far outweighed - and the pun is very much intended - by the nonsense that spurts forth from Ray Ratto's laptop. You demean those of us who love Cal football by asking this disinterested, cynical lout to write about a sport about which he knows nothing, and for which he could give a fig. His indifference is palpable; we're sure he'd rather be writing about latest Warriors-Blazers barnburner, or speculating about the Niners' draft, or eating Cheetos - anything rather than have to thumb through his grease-stained media guide to remember who starts for Cal at WLB. This is a man who ranked Virginia Tech #10 and Georgia Tech #24...the day after GT beat the Hokies 38-27...in Blacksburg. He is a menace.

You see, Bear fans can get our news about Cal athletics from any number of sources in the official and unofficial media. You have to wade through lots of garbage to get to it, but we guarantee that a handful of insiders on Cyberbears speak to the coaching staff more frequently than Ratso and his ilk. We really need exactly one professional media source on Cal athletics - Jay Heater, who is an actual insider and displays some knowledge and enthusiasm for his subject. We don't need you, or the Mercury News, for that matter. So save yourselves some money (we understand that's a bit of an issue now) and concentrate on what you're really good at - covering the depressingly ordinary professional franchises who populate the greater Bay Area.

Thanks for your time.

THIS POST HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE LAWSUIT

2007-01-30T13:30:00.000-08:00

So the trolls can just ignore it.

* Barring any last minute surprises, Cal's just about done for the year in recruiting. The last two recruits to verbal are Dorsey LB Robert Mullins and Chandler, Arizona DE Cameron Jordan. We'll cover both of them in more detail once Cal actually has their LOIs. Suffice to say they're both intriguing prospects for very different reasons. Jordan gives us three DEs, with Ernest Owusu still on the radar screen. Some have thought that Jordan could bulk up and move inside since speed is not his strong suit, but there's no indication that this is the plan for him.

* Christian Tupou will not be coming, which is just OK by us.

* Speaking of bad off-seasons: Arizona has lost six coaches in the last 2.5 months. Count with us: OC Mike Canales quit (ONE): RB coach Kasey Dunn left for Baylor (TWO); WR coach Charlie Williams took a job at North Carolina (THREE); the Minnesota Gophers snatched up recruiting coordinator Dan Berekowitz and asst. strength coach Mark Hill (FOUR, FIVE); and OL coach Eric Wolford just joined Ron Zook's staff at Illinois (SIX).

Some Cats fans are explaining this as a welcome wholesale change of the offensive scheme, but that doesn't explain why it's good to lose your recruiting coordinator a couple of weeks before LOI day. Call it 60% a wholesale change on offense and 40% coaches who are tired of Mike Stoops yelling at them.

* UCLA, looking for a coordinator to shake up their boring, vanilla west-coast-offense, has hired the unfortunately-named Jay Norvell, who helped Bill Callahan install a boring vanilla west-coast offense at Nebraska. Inspired choice. Husker fans aren't exactly on suicide watch over this one. Dorrell also "lost" O-line coach Jim Colletto to the Detroit Lions yesterday.

* We really hope that Pete Carroll hiring his kid to succeed Lane Kiffin as recruiting coordinator is a sign of the impending demise of the Trojan Empire - sort of like how the class system and rampant nepotism helped doom post-Victorian Britain by centralizing power in an incestuous network of mediocre nobles. Of course, we hope for a lot of things on this blog, and very few come true.

* Congratulations, Lute! You've gone from out of touch has-been to re-focused master coach making one last title run back to out of touch has-been in less than twelve months.

* Oregon still doesn't have an OC. The Portland Tribune says that Bellotti is going to interview from as many as ten candidates at the end of a love letter article about the Ducks' recruiting class. Ten candidates seems like way too many, but who are we to judge? After all, we think you shouldn't dress like sissies and pamper your players, but it seems to work for them. Well, usually it does.

MORE ON HIPPIES, TREES & EARTHQUAKES

2007-01-29T14:50:00.000-08:00

Judges grant preliminary injunctions stopping the actions of a defendant for two reasons:

1. The relevant law suggests that a suit against the defendant is likely to succeed
2. The politics surrounding the case make it advisable to grant the injunction (and the law is murky at best)

It's a reasonable bet that Superior Court Judge Barbara Miller was working off of option #2 this morning. Think about her constituency (and yes, superior court judges are elected with six-year terms). The professional protesting class would have done their level best to knock her out if she had prevented their cases from even going to trial.

Her ruling hasn't been released to the public, but the Chronicle report suggests that she found a likelihood that the stadium project would violate the Alquist-Priolo Act, which forbids the state from building new buildings on active earthquake faults. The University submitted a number of tests to the court, some of which showed no seismic activity under the project and others that were inconclusive. So, in essence, the judge has assigned homework to all parties to do more testing and come up with a conclusive result.

We can't wait to get our hands on her ruling, but so far there's been no press mention of hippies sitting in oak trees or the cheap bastards on Tightwad Hill or the Panoramic Avenue NIMBYs. If her ruling is indeed confined to the Alquist-Priolo issue, then that could be a small ray of sunshine in an otherwise bleak day. Assuming, that is, the University can submit a conclusive round of seismic testing.

Cal will appeal this ruling, for all the good that will do. After that's disposed of, we're looking at a trial beginning sometime during the summer in which the court will evaluate each of the four suits brought against the stadium project. We obviously need to wrap this up before next off-season, or things will get a little bit dicey.

Or, we cut a deal with the City. If we can give up the proposed parking garage in exchange for them selling out the hippies in the trees, then there might be an accommodation that obviates the need for a trial. We're not hopeful, but the University shouldn't close any doors to further negotiation.

One last thing - please keep the comment section clean and constructive.

BREAKING NEWS - HIPPIES TAKE ROUND ONE

2007-01-29T09:52:00.000-08:00

KRON is reporting that the judge has granted a preliminary injunction against the stadium project. This is bad news, but it's only a preliminary injunction and the University will be back to argue the merits at a later date. So, it's not quite time to panic - though this is certainly a setback. More to come....

HALFWAY HOME

2007-01-29T09:40:00.000-08:00

So we're at the halfway mark of the Pac-10 conference season and Cal has won one more game than we thought they would win at the beginning of conference play:

Wins: @ ASU, @ Stanford, Washington, @ Oregon State
Losses: @ Arizona, WSU, @ Oregon, UCLA, USC

We thought they'd get the Trojans at home and lose to the Huskies; they of course reversed that. We didn't think they'd win at Maples, but right now we don't think the Bears will win the return engagement at Haas. So it's up to expectations thus far, in one sense. In another sense, of course, this season is nothing like what we expected. The Bears have two healthy players taller than 6'5", and Alex Pribble is now a critical part of their rotation. A make-or-break year for Coach Braun has turned into an injury-riddled mulligan, and Cal fans have a hard time getting a fix on this team's chances. Not that we won't try.

So what are reasonable expectations for the remainder of the season? We thought of this question when considering where we'd IPO the Bears on ProTrade. ProTrade is a sort of stock market for pro and college sports; a twist on the traditional fantasy games that have never been our brand of vodka. They've asked us to set the market rate for the Bears - the rate being based on how many wins they'll have at season's end.

We think it's probably time to tamp down those long shot NCAA hopes. The Bears sit at 12-9 and 4-5 in conference. The very best we can hope for in the second half is 5-4, which would sit us at 17-13 and 9-9 with a Pac-10 tournament game or two to go. That's maybe good enough to get in with a couple of Staples wins, but remember this team lost to USD at home. On the downside, there's a very real chance that this team could fail to qualify for the NIT, given that they will be favored in only two games down the stretch. We think 4-5 is the record Bear fans should shoot for in the season's final five weeks:

Wins: ASU, OSU, Oregon, @ USC
Losses: Stanford, @ UW, @ WSU, @ UCLA, Arizona

Can the Bears pull off four wins (with at least two upsets) down the stretch? If so, they'll come to Staples at 16-14 with a very good shot at the NIT. So let's set the Bears' IPO price at 16 wins. Any other thoughts?

PREDICTION - USC AT CALIFORNIA

2007-01-27T09:00:00.000-08:00

We never thought we'd miss Eric Vierneisel so much.

On Thursday night it looked like there was a big difference between a nine-man Bears squad with EV and an eight-man squad without him. Not to beat up on Alex Pribble, who plays very good defense - probably better than Vierneisel. But Pribble can't be counted on to add the six to twelve points that Vierneisel would add on a nightly basis. And those six to twelve points are pretty important for a team that just scored 46 points in forty minutes.

So where do the points come from? The Bears can beat the Trojans if they get typical performances from each of their big two - Ryan Anderson and Ayinde Ubaka - and if another one or two guys step up as well. Against the Bruins Ubaka was apparently ill and of course was held scoreless. Without production from the point, Cal will continue to struggle against all but the dregs of the conference.

And USC of course is far from the dregs - they're an athletic team that plays excellent defense like their crosstown rivals. They are also pretty deep, bringing four good reserves off the bench. The Trojans are content to play a low-scoring game, which is good considering Cal's offensive woes.

So will the Bears step it up on the offensive end? It's anyone's guess. We're betting that they will, and that the Bears will take the must-win end of this LA home-stand by a whisker. We see Ayinde coming back and Theo having another good game. We see Gibson in foul trouble and a relatively poor shooting afternoon for USC from both the field and the line. Call it the power of positive thinking - or perhaps thinking with our heart instead of our head. In any event, call it:

California 68 USC 66

BLOG EXCHANGE WITH CONQUEST CHRONICLES

2007-01-26T15:55:00.000-08:00

In the run up to tomorrow's important game with USC (3 PM, Comcast Sportsnet), we exchanged some questions with the good folks at Conquest Chronicles, who are undoubtedly enjoying this basketball season. Basketball is no longer something to pass the time through recruiting season in LA - the Trojans are legitimately thinking about NCAA tournament seeding. Our thanks to Jim and his readers for contributing to these answers; our answers to his questions will be up at some point at his site.

Tightwad Hill: A simple question - did anyone in Trojan Nation expect the team to be this good in '07, or were you (like us) waiting on your Top 5 recruiting class?

Conquest Chronicles: There were some people who said, "we're going to be really good next year," but those people were more or less written off. As a school that has had limited success (if any) on the basketball court, no one had any major expectations. That said, the potential was definitely there, with Gabe Pruitt and Nick Young in the lineup. The emergence of Taj Gibson as a big man and reliable scorer has been unforeseen, and a huge reason we've been successful thus far.

Tightwad Hill: USC has gone from being an awful defensive team (2005) to a pretty good defensive team ('06) to the sixth most efficient defense in the country (as defined by Ken Pomeroy). Fill Bear fans in on what accounts for this type of dramatic improvement.

Conquest Chronicles: Floyd's coaching has made 'SC a defensive juggernaut. 'SC plays relentless man to man defense, with Taj settling into a semi-zone sort of postition in the paint. This allows for ease of slipping screens, and most importantly, for Taj to step into a helpside position to stop players from driving and getting the easy layup. Additionally, freshmen Daniel Hackett and Dwight Lewis are damn quick, and make life difficult for opposing guards off of the bench.

Tightwad Hill: SC was playing pretty well with Gabe Pruitt on the sidelines, and we
wondered whether his return might actually interrupt a pretty good flow on offense. Seems our suspicions were completely unfounded. With GP back, how far can this team go? What would constitute a successful season for Tim Floyd?

Conquest Chronicles: Since no one had any expectations going into the season, a decent run into the pac-10 tournament and or a NCAA big would be considered wildly successful. Floyd has made the team very competitive in the most competitive league in the nation, and at this point, we've bought into him as the next Pete Carroll, but in the sport that we're not actually good at. If the season were to end today, it would be considered wildly successful. Assuming we don't have a Washington-football-esque breakdown, it will be hard to call this season anything but a success.

Tightwad Hill: It seems as though SC has gotten itself into trouble on those occasions when it turns the ball over. What is Floyd doing to address this aspect of the Trojan game?

Conquest Chronicles: We've struggled here for indeterminate reasons, but turnovers are coming down. The biggest problem is that our turnovers have allowed teams to come back into games we should have won in a blowout because of the incredible momentum shifts they provide. Floyd keeps emphasizing holding onto the ball and making good looks, and we definitely are making progress. That said, it needs a lot of work. Another problem area has been free-throw shooting. If we're ugly from the line, it hurts, it did against Stanford, it did agains the Bruins, and it will against any other team who can keep it to single digits.

Tightwad Hill: The Trojans are shooting very well from three - Lodrick Stewart checks in at 44% and Nick Young is at 46% (on far fewer attempts). What accounts for the improvement from 2005-6 - are they simply hot or is the offense doing something that creates better looks?

Conquest Chronicles: The players have gotten better, but the offense has become much more patient. The Trojans are content to run 30 second plays before getting an open look. We are very satisfied with a game in the 50's or 60's because it suits our slow the ball down and get a good look offense. We CAN run the ball up and down the court, but we generally will pull the ball out, set something up, and then pass around until someone has an open look. Lodrick is a very streaky shooter, so be careful about him. Nick and Gabe are more consistent, but they also don't take as many shots outside the arc.

Tightwad Hill: Your prediction for the game.

Conquest Chronicles: Cal pulls away early b/c of home court advantage and because they need a win. The Trojans keep it close however, and eventually wear Cal down with their bench, building a decent lead that gets blown up by free-throw shooting and fouling at the end of the game. Final score: 71-64

Our thanks to Jim and his readers for contributing to this exchange, and our best wishes for a good, injury-free game.

USC - FIRST LOOK

2007-01-26T10:51:00.000-08:00

The USC Trojans entered this road trip ranked #25 in the country - its first ranking since 2002 - and full of optimism. Last night's big loss at Stanford knocked them back a peg, as the Lopez twins completely dominated the game on both ends. Brook Lopez had 12 blocked shots, which for purposes of comparison is more blocks than the entire Cal team has had in conference play.

Last year Cal owned the Trojans, sweeping the season series and then winning by 15 points in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament. These are very different teams, however - Leon Powe and DeVon Hardin obviously aren't available to torment the Trojans inside. For its part, USC has added its own super freshman in Taj Gibson. Gibson (left) is very much the key to USC's improved defense, which ranks seventh in the country (according to Pomeroy). The Trojans hold opponents to a 39.5% shooting percentage (3rd in the nation). Gibson's ability to block and alter shots has allowed SC's defense to extend on shooters and limit good looks from the perimeter - Gibson is 82nd in the country in block percentage (again, according to Pomeroy).

Aside from Gibson, the Trojans are a familiar lot. Gabe Pruitt (right) returns to Haas for the first time since L'affaire Victoria - he sat out the first part of the season with academic difficulties, but is now back to rain threes down upon the rest of the conference. He's the USC career leader with 131 three point shots over his two-plus year career. Senior Lodrick Stewart starts alongside him in the backcourt - he has shot very well from three but can also slash to the basket. Nick Young plays a wing - he's a 6'6" junior who is SC's best pure scorer (17.2 ppg) but can become a bit of a black hole. Against Stanford last night he went 5-19 from the floor.

The Trojans start Abdoulaye N'diaye at center. He's not much of an offensive presence, but plays tough inside defense and averages 15.6 mpg. Off the bench, the Trojans' best player is freshman Daniel Hackett, a 6'5" guard who leads the team in assists with 61. Fellow freshman Dwight Lewis is yet another 6'5" guard who is more of a scorer than Hackett. Keith Wilkinson and RouSean Cromwell are two sophomores above 6'10" who will relieve N'diaye and Gibson in the front court.

USC is not a great matchup for the Bears - but then, who is when you're dressing only eight scholarship players? USC doesn't have a true point - their expected starter Ryan Francis was tragically murdered in the off-season in his home state of Louisiana. As a result, the Trojans have been occasionally vulnerable to turnovers, and they can fall out of a good rhythm offensively - they've scored fewer than 60 points in their last two outings. Cal will need to bring it on defense and limit second shots to keep the score at a manageable level to have a chance of winning on Saturday.

UCLA 62 CALIFORNIA 46

2007-01-25T20:27:00.000-08:00

A game that looked somewhat winnable in the first half turned into a blowout in the second. This was the worst offensive performance by California in recent memory.

What went right? Not much. Ryan Anderson had a nice first half, and Theo Robertson played well throughout. Cal played very good man defense in the first, drawing several charges and contesting shot after shot. Omar had his second consecutive plus-50% game from the field, though we wish he'd force the issue more. Braun went to Taylor Harrison and Alex Pribble more than usual in the first, perhaps to prepare for a better second half performance.

It wasn't to be. Ayinde Ubaka would probably prefer to forget this - the worst game he's played in a California uniform by a long shot. On defense, Cal played man instead of zone, but it didn't help much on the boards. UCLA had 18 offensive rebounds - many of which were simply hustle rebounds by Aboya, Mata and Mbah a Moute. Cal shot nine free throws in a home game. That's not because the refs screwed us, it's because UCLA plays sound defense and we didn't move the ball well after the first seven or eight minutes. We became a jump shooting team, and not a very good one at that.

On to USC. We'll have a blog exchange up for a game that Cal needs - if for no other reason than to wipe this one from our collective memory. GO BEARS!

PREDICTION - UCLA AT CALIFORNIA

2007-01-25T12:30:00.000-08:00

UCLA reported yesterday that Luc Richard M'bah a Moute (right) will start at the four, sending fellow Cameroonian (is that correct?) Alfred Aboya to the bench. This is not good news, since the Prince will be even more difficult for Cal to handle in the paint than his fellow countryman. Enough of that, on to the good news about this game.

First a programming note - the game starts at 6:00 pm on Fox Sports Bay Area and a bunch of other FSN stations (but not Fox Sports West, for some reason). Big portions of the country will be able to check out Haas Hysteria tonight. Let's hope the Bears give them something to watch.

We think they will. UCLA grinds teams with suffocating defensive pressure in the half-court. Teams with substandard point guard play shouldn't really bother with the Bruins (we're looking at you, Stanford) unless UCLA simply fails to show up (which they haven't done under Howland).

If there's one thing Cal has this year, it's good point play. Ayinde Ubaka isn't the type of guard who can dissect a defense and consistently make the right pass at the right moment. That's what many Bear fans have been looking for ever since Jason Kidd left, and it's simply not what Ubaka's good at. He does do two important things, though. He can make over-pursuing defenses pay by scoring on the drive or from the perimeter. And - this is the important part - he takes pretty good care of the basketball. The whole team does, as a matter of fact, ranking 15th in the country in turnover percentage. We see Ayinde having a big night tonight - and we'll need it.

As Nestor at Bruins Nation points out, Lorenzo Mata will have his hands full with Mr. Anderson, and hopefully this forces Howland to go to his bench more. Not that his bench players aren't great - they are, but they don't block shots and rebound like Mata (who is the 82nd best player in the nation in defensive rebound % - according to Pomeroy).

You're getting sleepy....

All of this suggests that Cal will give the Bruins a game. Can they actually pull the upset? Sure, if they can reverse the second-half slide that has plagued them since Hardin's injury - UCLA has shown they are apt to start slowly against inferior opponents. The problem is that UCLA is a mirror image of Cal, enjoying a big second-half advantage over almost all of its conference opponents (Arizona excepted). They bang, they reach, they pester offenses and all this harassment eventually takes its toll. The home crowd should add some fuel to the Bears' fire, but it's hard for us to see Cal ending the second-half blues against this particular opponent. Unless Pribble and Harrison contribute valuable minutes and play out of their heads, of course, and everyone stays out of foul trouble. Which could happen - after all, it's Bruin Week.

UCLA 70 California 66

Full house tonight

OUR EARLY PICK FOR OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

2007-01-25T11:50:00.000-08:00

In the hours since we posted that Mike Dunbar has left Cal for the land of 10,000 lakes, we've thought long and hard about who would be the best choice to replace him. And we've come to a pretty firm opinion that we'd like to share with Coach Tedford, his staff and the Golden Bear Nation. The best choice to be the new offensive coordinator at Cal is:

Let's drop the pretense. Tedford is a great - not good, great - offensive coach. Why filter that asset through an established OC who a) probably isn't as terrific as Tedford and b) would inevitably have at least slightly different ideas than the boss about play selection, general philosophy and the like? Tedford is willing to defer to his coaches to an extent - the Bears play Bob Gregory's defense, not Tedford's - but when it comes to offense JT has shown that he runs the show.

Now, it makes little sense to literally give Tedford the OC title. He needs someone to literally call the plays in line with Cal's scheme and...well...coordinate things. For all his offensive prowess, Tedford has also demonstrated the administrative abilities necessary to run a successful program. Graduation rates are up, staff morale has been pretty good, and the team is almost always prepared to play. This isn't to suggest that Tedford couldn't handle both roles - a certain head coach in Los Angeles has had quite a bit of success wearing a coordinator's hat. But it's a risk, and we'd prefer not to add new burdens to our workaholic head man.

Based on history, it would seem that an established coordinator isn't likely to be comfortable running Tedford's offense. George Cortez worked for a while because he was content to stay in the background and focus on offensive execution. But even Cortez eventually left. All the speculation about OC's at other schools (or former OCs' like Tom Cable - who by the by is probably going to wind up in Westwood) is pointless, in our view. History suggests that Cal would be back in this same position a couple of years later.

We need a coordinator who can work with Tedford, implement his schemes and be satisfied with such. This last criteria suggests a position coach, as opposed to a coordinator making a horizontal move. The first criteria suggests someone who has a track record and comfort level with JT. Put together, it seems to us that this is the perfect moment to promote Ron Gould.

Gould is the only staff holdover from the Tom Holmoe era, and has done an outstanding job working with Cal's running backs during his career. He's also an important part of Cal's recruiting effort. Gould would certainly welcome the promotion, and we're sure he'd be up to wearing both hats for a time. Tedford could bring in another staff member - an ace recruiter, perhaps? - to assist with the backs, if necessary.

Any other ideas?

PREVIEW - UCLA AT CALIFORNIA

2007-01-24T15:27:00.000-08:00

We've devoted lots of time to tomorrow's game with UCLA (6:00 - FSN) because it's a game with lots of upside potential for the Bears. Lose, and well you expect to lose to the #3 team in the land. Win, and you begin to see the outlines of a NCAA bid thanks to a skyrocketing RPI. Let's have a look at the matchups, with thanks to Bruins Nation for lots of excellent hotlinked material.

When Cal has the ball...
We'll start here, since defense is what defines Ben Howland's Bruins. While the Pac-10 has a number of teams that play sound technical defense (Cal, Wazzu, USC), no team gets after it like UCLA. They deny even the simple perimeter pass, and extend pressure coverage well past the arc. That's why UCLA leads the conference in steals at 8.4 a game. Frankly, we haven't seen CBB defense like this since Nolan Richardson's 40 minutes of hell in the early 1990s.

Fortunately, Cal takes care of the basketball. In fact the Bears are 15th best in the country at offensive turnover % (as defined by Ken Pomeroy). Having a senior point guard helps - but everybody (outside of Vierneisel) is doing a good job in this respect. So here's our first key to the game - how will backup Jerome Randle handle having Darren Collison (left) in his shorts for 15 or so minutes tomorrow night? If Randle turns it over a few times, the Bruins can break for cheap baskets that are very difficult to make up.

Luc Richard M'bah a Moute is a question mark for tomorrow's game - Howland held him out of the Arizona game with a hyper-extended right knee and he's likely a gametime decision. If the Prince cannot go, then Alfred Aboya slides into his spot at the four (with Lorenzo Mata at the five). Aboya is a very solid if unspectacular player who lacks the explosiveness of the Prince on either end. Theo can perhaps out-quick Aboya, though that's far from certain.

Ryan Anderson needs to run Mata ragged. Mata is a solid post defender, but we're not convinced he can keep up with Anderson, who's adept at scoring from outside. No doubt Braun will put Ryan on his horse on the baseline in an effort to open up the middle to cutters and second-chance points.

Ayinde Ubaka enjoys a size advantage over Collison, and the Bears need to find ways to establish Ayinde inside as long as Collison checks him. If that happens, Howland may switch Arron Afflalo (right) to Ubaka, at which point Omar needs to step up. (We're frankly hoping that Howland makes this move since it would free Ayinde up to run the point and not worry about the inside game). This would be our second key to the game - Omar Wilkes. Cal desperately needs its junior wing to build on last Saturday's fine performance at Oregon on the offensive end and take the game to UCLA. If Cal becomes a two-man team, it will almost surely lose this game.

We'd ordinarily say that Cal will try to chew clock and go deep into their possessions, but after the Oregon track meet we're not so sure. One more thing - the Bears cannot settle for threes against UCLA. The Bruins have the 18th highest ratio of 3-pointers defended to total FG attempts; and we're guessing that the majority of those aren't good looks.

When UCLA has the ball...
Cal will likely run a fair bit of zone against the Bruins. It makes sense based on both personnel and past results. UCLA struggled against ASU's 3-2 matchup zone, though they performed better against Arizona's zone last Saturday running a four-guard lineup at times.

The Bruins have lots of shooters - they shoot 53.3% from the field and 38.9% from three. Collison is above 50% from three, and Afflalo is dangerous (if a bit streaky - remember the NC game last year). Michael Roll is very dangerous off the bench. Still, it's worth risking a hot shooting night to prevent penetration by Collison and Afflalo, who figures to have a significant advantage in his matchup with Omar Wilkes.

Collison was absolutely unconscious in non-conference play, shooting 59.3% from the field. He's cooled off a bit in the Pac-10, at just a bit below 45% from the field. Josh Shipp will be a difficult matchup for freshman Patrick Christopher.

Which brings us to our third key to the game - improved rebounding out of the zone. Cal must keep Aboya, Mata and the rest of the Bruins off the offensive glass to win this game. This is the area where losing M'bah a Moute hurts UCLA the most - he is so difficult to check inside that he creates lots of second-chance points. Even without him, the Bears have a formidable task here - Aboya (right) had six offensive boards against Arizona.

One last thing - UCLA is not a particularly good free-throw shooting team at 65.2%.

Now the fourth key to the game - getting out to a fast start on both ends. This has been a strong suit for the Bears in the last month, as they opened up big leads against Stanford and Oregon. They need a similar performance against the Bruins, who have been a bit vulnerable to slow starts. UCLA is a deep team - throwing very good reserves like Roll, Bryant Westbrook and James Keefe onto the court to eat minutes and wear down opponents. The second half will likely be a struggle for California, so it's very important to get off to a quick start.

Prediction to follow tomorrow. GO BEARS!

GOODBYE, MR. DUNBAR

2007-01-24T13:13:00.000-08:00

The wires are now reporting that Cal OC Mike Dunbar has accepted an OC position at the University of Minnesota. File this one under "failed experiments." We have mixed emotions about this - on the one hand, it's clear that the working relationship between JT and Dunbar was far from perfect - the fact that he would make a downgrade move suggests that he was eager to get out of Berkeley. Further, our personnel doesn't support Dunbar's version of the spread offense.

On the other hand, it's never good to have this sort of staff volatility so "late" in the off-season (and two weeks from LOI day). We'll see what JT does in response; we don't begin to know who might be on his short list to replace Dunbar. Any thoughts?